L'AMERIQUE DEPRESSIVE.

En 1992 Francis Fukuyama etait considere comme l'analyste politique clairvoyant, voir meme prophetique, decrivant l'incontournable avenement d'un modele occidental victorieux, au milieu des ruines carbonisees d'alternatives epuisees, marxiste ou tiers- mondiste. Les Etats Unis devinrent la reference incontestee pour un monde embrassant la pensee unique. Cette situation acccelera l'arrogance des uns et le desarroi des autres. L'Amerique allait regner, incontestee, l'espace d'une decennie.

Comme il peut  arriver, l'empire US, comme la grenouille de La Fontaine, a manque de mesure et s'est surestime. L'arrogance a suivi le parcours connu des graphiques economiques, du decollage a l'atterissage en catastrophe. G.W. Bush a ete le pilote malchenceux de cette acceleration negative. Obama a reussi a redemarrer l'engin mais la precarite heritee a pese lourd sur la rentabilite immediate. Aujourd'hui, les lubies de l'apprenti sorcier Trump creent un chaos dans lequel tous les extremes ont desormais carte blanche.

L'Amerique a ete longtemps consideree, a juste titre, comme une societe positive,  reconnue comme terre d'accueil et d'innovation. L'avenement de Trump a immediatement altere cette "donnee". Le pays est fondamentalement (structurellement ?) divise, bien qu'en realite ces deux camps opposes partagent une morosite, voir meme, un pessimisme en aval, similaires. Les Americains se sentent aujourd'hui mal aimes . N'ayant pas l'habitude d'etre ostracises, ils boudent, aussi a domicile. Le president qui accumule en sa personne toutes les pathologies demolit les normes, les vocabulaires et les imperatifs admis. S'il n'y a pas de mal a remettre en cause les certitudes anterieures, cette revision doit encore etre legitime. Or ce qui se passe ressemble plus a un reglement de compte qu'a une alternative reflechie. Si la diplomatie peut ressembler a un exercise Hegelien, elle ne peut degenerer en une roulette russe. Or l'Amerique choisit maintenant  de vider precipitamment les lieux du multitalisme sans payer le loyer. L'immeuble de l'ordre mondial est abandonne aux squatters...

"Squatters" est au demeurant un mot qui ne convient pas. Les nouveaux pretendants de l'ordre sont redoutables. La vertigineuse percee de la Chine et le retour de la Russie consituent des ajustements majeurs . Il s'agit d' avancees existentielles et non de pages feilletonesques du "Le lys dans la vallee" (pardon Balzac) . Trump n'est qu' un Silene ivre d'adulation, joue par d'autres, plus sophistiques. Il a cree autour se sa personne une figuration opportuniste ou mediatique (Fox / Breitbart) qui sert continuellement la dose de realite alternative dont il a besoin . Cet homme autoritaire mais incertain  s'entoure de  flateurs.  Il faut esperer que la psychose de "mal a l'aise" ne devienne terminale. Tout est mis en place - dans les secteurs de lajustice,  de l'environnement,de l' intelligence,du climat, de l' economie, de la presse, entre autres- pour accelerer un demembrement systhematique du tissus democratique et du premier amendement.

Le label de "defenseur du monde libre" accorde a l'Amerique a toujours eu un cote exagere. Certes, militairement les Europeens etaient les sous-traitants des Etats-Unis. D'autres l'etaient moins ou ont prefere degager. Autant il y avait un courant qui passait entre Europeens et Americains ( malgre le  court - circuit iraquien) , ce mariage que se disputaient le coeur et la raison restait solide. Maintenant il est en crise. Le monde se regroupe autour de plusieurs poles, en premier lieu la Chine e la Russie (l'Eurasie) . L'une et l'autre avancent. Elles le font avec d'autant plus de determination que le reve americain est devenu cauchemar. L'alternative europenne peut devenir un contre poids a condition  que l'UE evite les pieges-maison et qu'elle reusisse a dompter  ses demons interieurs. La France semble en tout cas savoir ou aller. Encore faudrait-il que d'autres la suivent. L'Europe a sans doute un grand pouvoir seductif ,"soft power". Plusieurs zones de conflit sont desormais plus disposees a ecouter la voix de la raison sans quid pro quo, plutot que de se soumettre a un gymkhana impose avec des conditions leonines . Le president Macron a suggere un nombre de reformes qui devraient rendre a l'UE son ambition. Encore faut-il que l'Allemagne co-pilote ce projet.

Il ne s'agit surtout pas de devenir anti-Americain. Il ne faut pas confondre l'avatar, l'accident de parcours avec un divorce. Le couple Atlantique a besoin de respirer, c'est tout. Il vaut mieux choisir la distance  occasionnelle que de risquer le naufrage d'une ambition trans-Atlantique. Si la moitie Americaine est malade, l'autre moitie doit intervenir, jusqu'a ce que la raison reprenne le dessus. Cela risque de prendre du temps, helas.

WE HAVE SEEN BETTER DAYS ('As You Like It', II.7.121)

Many in the United States have been walking into Trump's trap. His round-the- clock strategy is one of media occupation, connection and creating an alternative truth. Observers of  the political scene are out of breath commenting, feeling hurt, being repulsed--but by verbalizing frustration one only ends up adding another layer to the "all about Trump" narrative. The president doesn't fear crosswinds, he enjoys them.  He loathes to be "ignored". 

It is going to be difficult to measure one's animus given that the looming "tax break", the Mueller investigation and many major bumps in the road will ignite tensions that will be difficult to ignore. Self-discipline is a craft which does not come easy but the media should not become the unwilling accessories to their own compulsion and to a nefarious strategy, waged against constitutional rights, freedoms and democracy as a whole.

It is nevertheless certain that major events will create one or more political storms of an unforeseeable magnitude. The Republicans got their "contradictory" tax cut and will cling to that like the shipwrecked cling to their lifebelt. Contrary to what happened during Watergate, one should not expect a resurgent principled revolt from that side. The Democrats have to address an unavoidable future existential crisis in terms of constitutional righteous claims which transcend the usual narrow political interests.

It is becoming clear that Trump is getting closer to the authoritarian mindset of some and that he rejects what he perceives as the inglorious workings of the EU. He sees glammor in hard-power and, being non-cultured himself, prefers to ignore the added value in soft-power. The US is already losing its edge in what was its former strength. China is remapping the lanes of information and is rebooting its own "dream machine". That Trump is seen as playing in some right-wing Yalta with Putin, Erdogan and Co. tells a lot about this administration's Zeitgeist. To make a parallel between what is happening now in America and former events in Europe in the late '30s is no longer taboo.  President Obama warned lately that the democratic rollback in the US could well lead to the rise of a form of Nazism. The former is already present in the "alt right" and in the words of the pseudo-Bannon intellectuals. Fortunately the vast majority of Americans are not buying into the autocratic models which are scaring off most (as could be seen in the Alabama senatorial race).

At the end of the day, the choice is between a breakdown of shared priorities, intelligence, democracy and an ugly level playing field wherein opportunism goes hand-in-hand with any convenient alternative reality wrapped in a tweet.

The noise will continue unabated. Earplugs are recommended!  Commentary will not be discontinued, albeit in a more user-friendly tempo.

 

THE ALABAMA VEDICT

Contrary to most expectations the Democrats won the Senate seat in Alabama. Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore, and in doing so he gave the Republicans--in the first place the president and Steve Bannon--a slap in the face. Trump was humiliated and the GOP returned to its own unappealing bickering and moral abdication. In true fashion, Moore did not yet concede and it can be expected that everything will be considered to try discredit this win for Democrats. The arguments about a "rigged" system will flourish anew.  If Moore had won, the same system would have been commended as fair, of course.

However, the Trump machine will not be stopped, neither will his base be demobilized or chastened. The monster of creepy isolationism has been awakened and has to be fed. The White House will continue to serve it the red meat it  craves. The permanent unreal news cycle created by spin, allegation and weaponised contempt could even grow larger, under the baton of the Huns in Fox News, now the de facto war machine of this administration. 

Trump is dismantling the state under the name of deregulation.  Likewise, he is averse to support America's soft-power abroad, preferring military posture and creating a diplomatic vacuum wherein China and Russia are too happy to intrude. Foreign policy is mostly conducted for the sake of a bigoted electoral base which is, by the way, totally ignorant of the world as it is. The ruling home based priorities are rooted in a narrow agenda. The lies benefit the chosen conservatives while penalizing the more enlightened majority others, who veer between despair and revolt.

Democrats should reconsider their strategy--starting by reviewing their leadership--and pay more attention to the urgency of a contemporary agenda rather than to the survival of bygone models.  They can leave the "coal" to the Republicans and go for R/D, climate, health care, renewable energy, new technologies, inclusion.  It has become clear that, in the short term, all efforts to convince the Evangelicals & Co. are doomed. Better to skip the missionary work and come together around a blueprint for the future.

Trump will nevertheless continue to get a blank check from the GOP and to set a bad example of how to abuse and misrule. Republican senators might actually be relieved at not having the toxic Alabama Moses in their midst.  Politics in Trump's America "smell to heaven".

TRUMP AND JERUSALEM ; MUCH ADO ABOUT THE BASE

Trump has announced that the US now recognizes Jerusalem as capital of Israel. At the same time he confirmed the support for a two-state solution and left open the question of Jerusalem's future contour.  In so doing he gave in, yet again, to his base of Evangelicals.  He made Israeli P.M. Netanyahu and Sheldon Adelson happy, made Mahmoud Abbas' life even more miserable and finally upset the Arabs, the Europeans and everybody else.

Otherwise his address was short on substance. One is entitled to wonder what Jared Kushner's and Jason Greenblatt's "efforts" regarding the peace process amount to. It is too early to predict if the Arab streets might react but it is clear that the Arab leaders are unanimous in expressing their concerns for the possible consequences of an unnecessary decision made for "home consumption".

The president has a most predictable psyche. He bites when he feels cornered, as is now the case with his lawyers creating a stampede among themselves to find a rebuke to the accumulating alarm bells coming out of the Russian probe. The tactic from the White House is to deflect, "over lie", and occupy the news cycle with more junk than can be found in the "space graveyard" which circles the earth.

The secretary of state was absent during this "major" address.  Tillerson had the non-enviable task to meet with blatant hostility in Brussels, of the kind that ruled the European waves before the second Iraq war. The esteem for things American in Europe is at its lowest point. 

From Lebanon to Turkey, from Syria to Yemen, Washington is seen as the unwelcome, clueless guest and spoiler-in-chief. France tries to bring some coherence to the situation but it is an uphill battle since MBS, the Saudi "Wonder Prince", is as unpredictable as his forays in foreign affairs (Yemen, Qatar) betray. It will be interesting to see how he will now react to Trump's own "fatwa".

In America, international policy has become "local." The most "far out" actions or statements have from now on to be seen not as game-changers abroad but as  gestures to placate Trump's base of "deplorables."  Other than that there is no there there.

TRUMP AND PONZI

The US Senate has voted (Republicans versus Democrats) a tax bill few had an opportunity to read. The GOP has a Pavlovian reflex whenever the word tax cut comes up. They do not even take the time to debate or analyze, they follow their Pied Piper of Hamelin and prefer not to smell the rat!

Trump's former disgraced National Security Advisor finally admitted lying to the FBI. This new (not unexpected) twist comes at a most inauspicious moment for an administration which looks besieged and incoherent. The White House of booby- trapped cards circles the wagons, in vain.

The Secretary of State is openly ridiculed, waiting for his exile. He is losing clout and face by the day.  Few will notice the difference if he were to leave, since diplomacy is done now by Twitter.  In one week, Trump was able to offend the UK and the Netherlands. He had to swallow how Egypt rolled out the red carpet  for Russia and was looking at a loss for finding a rebuke to "Little Rocket Man". He is supposed to recognize Jerusalem as capital of Israel next week.  Any move should be part of a comprehensive, final agreement. In deciding a move now he might well jeopardize America's standing with i.a. Jordan and Morocco.

America, under this uninformed and intellectually lazy president, appears to be in the curse of  Steve Bannon, an unaccountable pseudo-intellectual and Leninist poseur (interesting analysis by Thomas Chatterton Williams in the Dec. 4 New Yorker about the French origins of the white-nationalist rallying cry). His populist, nativist message stands contrary to the "real" country which remains a melting pot of immigrants, diversity and talent. True, all those qualities are under siege but one feels that the impatience with the present permanent chaos is reaching a point of reckoning. Contrary winds are starting to get the better of the brush fires that have been lit and that are dangerously close to consuming liberal values, openness and diversity. The mood in the country is sour, but people are getting tired of this permanent warfare against all which most stand for.

Trump pays for playing up to his base by losing support from his allies and from the "other" America.  He risks ending up being seen as Putin's minor avatar, without the cunning brio of the Russian model.  By letting the last scandal pay for the previous one, and on and on, he is just another John Law or Bernie Madoff:  the maker of a Ponzi scheme. The Republicans will pay a high price for having contributed to the election of a president who came with so much overweight baggage!