ALEXANDER DECROO KNUFFELPREMIER

Belgie heeft een regeringsleider waarin het zich kan herkennen. Dit doet niets af van de "verdiensten" van zijn voorgangers.  In minder dan drie maanden is hij er in geslaagd het vermoeide politieke discours te keren. Hij is de gedroomde schoonzoon, de proto Belg, met het curieuze taalgebruik vandien. De oppositie is voorlopig de media strijd verloren.

Deze regering komt na te lange Byzantynse onderhandelingen, waarin te veel geruchten en theatrale uitvallen opvielen. De korte "staatsgreep" PS/ N -VA is niet doorgegaan, mede omdat De Wever zijn charisma niet langer kon vergulden. Het erbarmelijk parcours van de Vlaamse regering is daar niet vreemd aan. Vivaldi is een in vitro formule en niet het resultaat van een passionele verhouding. Decroo is er niettegenstaande in geslaagd de opinie warm(er) te maken voor zijn premierschap. Paul Magnette (PS) was de geroepen kandidaat als regeringsleider, te meer dat hij verantwoordelijk is voor een aantal gemaakte keuzes. Hij heeft trouwens het charisma, de intelligentie en de taalvaardigheid. Dat Decroo een Vlaams politicus is, maakte van hem de onvervangbare prins inter pares.

De ploeg is er een van verademing en verjonging. Frank Vandenbroecke (SP.A) is de geteste Ancien, met karakter. Het wordt vooral uitzien naar het post COVID 19.  De socio-ekonomische puinhoop wordt een bijna niet voorstelbare uitdaging. De lidstaten en de  EU wacht een heroisch creatief herstel initiatief, waarvoor nog geen model voorhanden is. Vincent Van Peteghem (financien/CD&V) en vooral Thomas Dermine (Relance, wetenschapsbeleid /PS) valt de Prometheus uitdaging toe om de zaken proberen recht te trekken. Dermine heeft nu de kans gekregen om zijn profiel van Wunderkind waar te maken.

Annelies Verlinden (binnenlandse zalen /DD&V), Vincennt Van Quickenborne (justitie/openVLD) en Sophie Wilmes (buitenlandse zaken/ MR) worden beschowd als pro's. Wilmes vooral moet proberen de geloofwaardigheid van Belgie te herstellen ( NAVO, EU, VN ( mislukt parcours in de Veiligheisdraad), AFRICA, AZIE, dossier Brussels Airlines enz. Het wordt ook tijd dat het onthaal in Brussel eindelijk te bekijken valt, liever dan te omzeilen.

Decroo kan daarbij nog het voorbeeld van zijn vader, ras politicus, opvolgen. Hij kan ook rekenen op de persoon van de koning, die een te naderen persoon is geworden in een land dat lijdt onder een nadelig saldo aan symboliek.

BREXIT REQUIEM

An unpleasant divorce is probably better than an acrimonious agony. The Brexit agreement has zero sex appeal, the way separations go. Besides, the 500 pages will be read by none and only used, in part, when needed or convenient.

It is hard to see what the United  Kingdom has achieved. The prime minister claims that Britain got its sovereignity back. Nobody ever thought it had been lost.  Ascot, the parades and the hats survive. The Crown is the ultimate depositary of the country's DNA.

The agreeement sent Mrs. Thatcher's Single Market to the gallows, together with her handbag. Her dishevelled current successor decided to run the illusion rather than the waves.

This Brexit is a nightmare:  cross sector retaliation, arbitration (versus litigation), requirement for passports, deportation, etc. create a minefield that will be hard to navigate. Too many clauses have a temporary time-limit and others are shaky. From fisheries to Ireland, the road is a slippery: one which might trap goodwill and reliability.

The EU and the UK are together in too many fora to become structurally divided, but the Churchillian amorous quarels are gone for ever. They are a thing of the past.  Mrs. Thatcher was a partner who worked on European nerves, still she was part of the fanily: a Mary Poppins on steroids.  Boris Johnson is a Trumpian politician whom Europeans love to hate.  Nevertheless, nothing lasts forever. Remember de Gaulle's veto against the UK joining the Common Market (La chaise vide)?  Some are of the opinion that, after all, the General was right, that Britain and the continent did not belong together.  Others differ.

It can stll be argued that Britain deserves its place in Brussels, more so than Hungary for instance.  One does not have to return to the Magna Carta or the centuries of mutual hate/love to be convinced of the desirability of London's participation in European affairs. 

Brexit is the result of an arrogant miscalculation of David Cameron, who fits more in a Wodehouse novel than in Westminster. It is hard to imagine that the undoing could be revisited in the short-term. The Europeans, who disagree about most, are united in their contempt for the Brexiteers who ended up being even more unsufferable than the Visegrad hooligans.

The clock is turned back for now. Both the EU and the UK are exhausted, relieved that the nightmare is over but worried because of the booby-trap that may be hidden in these 500 unholy pages. Divorce can be harder to navigate in the absence of a pre-nuptial or a clean-cut. This curtain call could have been avoided if it were not for the arrogance of the fools who set it unnecesarely into motion.

2021 : EXPLOSIF

2020 aura ete une annee globalement deficitaire. En realite, elle a ete un crash annonce, dont les consequenes risquent d'etre perverses. Commencee sous le signe du Zodiac malefique de Trump elle se traine comme un cauchemar de Goya. Le Covid 19  s'est empare des jours et des vies, avant que les vaccins n'arrivent, comme a l'Opera, au troisieme acte, apres que les jeux sont faits.

J'attends que Michel Houellebecq nous livre sa version de cette descente aux enfers. Apres tout , de "Soumission" a "Serotonine" la boucle est fermee. Reste le constat. 

Il est consternant d'observer combien les meilleures intentions derappent. Elles visent la lune mais elles n'arrivent qu'a s'ecraser sur une surface en carton, type Melies. Certes, les interventions et vaccins finiront bien par achever la bete, mais les consequences plus structurelles demeureront longtemps en chantier

Le reveil sera sans merci. Le tele-travail aura vide les temples du capitalisme. Le nombre de nouveaux pauvres sera enorme. Les comportements basic, affectueux, familiaux, sexuels, spontanes risquent de sortir abimes du coma artificiel. Au demeurant, les patients qui se sont remis du Covid 19  presentent des symptomes atypiques pour lesquels la science reste  inconsistante.

Il est evident que la morale ou la philosophie hesitent a affronter de front les rivages traitres de cette pandemie, venue de nulle part. Le courage politique fait defaut. L'imagination empirique reste introuvable. La religion fait le mort. Il n'en reste d'ailleurs a peu pres rien. En Europe Occidentale laique, seuls quelques Sociniens survivent, dificilement.

On entre dans l'inconnu. L'autorite deja debordee, voir meme depassee, approche l'avenement de ce nouveau cycle avec anxiete. Bien qu'il devienne clair que les arrangements et certitudes passes sont devenus obsoletes, personne n'a le courage d'affroter la nouvelle realite. Alors que tout  change devant nos yeux, le bricolage ephemere continue d'occulter la revision fondamentale. 

Il faudrait pourtant mieux opter pour Danton plutot que d'attendre l'arrivee de Robespierre. On peut s'attendre a des tensions sociales destabilisantes, des lors que la dette, le chomage, la deliquescense de plusieurs pans de l'economie et l'agonie du secteur artistique, demandent des interventions courageuses. 

Le temps presse, d'autant plus que le rechauffement climatique devient  incontournable. Les flux financiers ne quittent toujours pas le delta des possedants, feignant ignorer l'amont des "nouveaux pauvres". Ces desequilibres sont destabilisants. Les services publics plient, la police craque, la population deprime. Une nouvelle generation de criminalite va inmamquablement apparaitre.

 Ce ne sont pas les mirages des pays du Golfe, colportes par CNN (contre renumeration), qui exposent un monde meilleur. Ces images fabriquees de modeles - femmes et hommes - genre Glamour made in Saudi ne doivent pas occulter l'assassinat de Khashoggi ou la situation des travailleurs migrants abuses qui croupissent loin des regards des medias. 

Pour le meilleur et le pire les Etas Unis ont ete le moteur des grands changements dans le monde. A court terme Trump les a mis KO. Il n'est pas certain qu'ils sortent rapidement de leur stupeur. L'UE est devenue un projet laborieux et trop byzantin pour pouvoir reclamer un premier role alors qu'elle ne sait meme pas agir contre  ses membres infrequentables. La Chine cree trop d'envies pour laisser une place a l'emulation spontanee. Des initiatives de pays comme la France (trop hexagonale), le Royaume Uni (hors jeu) ou l'Allemagne (le poids de l'histoire) sont dead on arrival. Un nouveau groupe de Bandung n'est pas a exclure, mais quand ? Sans "ennemis" communs, les 77 d'hier sont devenus des enjeux plutot que des acteurs.

Bon, l'envol de la mongolfiere 2021 est attendu, sans GPS... et encore sans public. Egon Musk et le Big Tech sont les maitres des cieux . La rue reste a prendre...

US ELECTIONS ACT 6 : TRUMP'S SHAME

Finally the Electoral College has confirmed Biden's victory, both in terms of his overall score and by the numbers in the Electoral College. The Republicans swallowed their lies and halted their gruesome tactics, for now. Trump will never give up since in his sick, infantile mindset it is all about himself. This fabricated real estate Wunderman is nothing but the ultimate 'demolition man.'

America looks like Pompei after the Vesuvius, covered under the weight of four years of corruption, falsehood, denial, organised crime and looting. Prestige and influence lie in the gutter. It becomes hard to believe that this unglorious descent follows a century of existential continuity. There have been colossal mistakes in the past:  slavery, racial discrimination, Vietnam, Iraq....but the pain led to some form of atonement and realization thast something that went dramatically bad that needed to be adressed, collectively.  Instead, lately Americans have had to cope with a 24-hour news cycle of relentless war against facts, science, truth, which left people exhausted.

The new president will have to be the "healer-in-chief".  He needs to restore credibility and civility inside and abroad.  He must lift America out of the category of dubious players, like Brazil, Poland, the Gulf States and Co. It is going to be difficult to convert Trump's base to a more generous form of political discourse since their "leader" will not choose for a more gentle withdrawal in the sunset, as his predecessors did. 

Biden will need support before the United States can lead again.  Europeans should be generous in their support, be it in a more robust burden-sharing in NATO, in welcoming America back in the Paris climate agreement, in WHO,  in trade and in a renewed investment in culture and human rights. These are difficult times since  Covid-19 rules the hearts and minds. Society as we knew it one year ago is gone for ever.  Social behavior, the laws of economy, structural breaking points need a global Rooseveltian intervention. It is unfair to expect the new American president and  vice-president to help the world to break out the Gotterdamerung in a fortnight. It is fair however, to hope for the good of all, that president Biden will try to be the steward of an enlightened global search for solutions that can bring solace for many without privileging one. It would be useful if such an inclusive reflexion could bring back a revisited group of Bandung (the 77). Yesterday's non-alignement is a thing of the past for sure, but the emergencies of today (in the first place climate change, looting of natural resources, the Pikety curse) demand that groups rally among themselves for various degrees of self-preservation.

We are entering unchartered waters. Recent pillars of reason are already immersed by the incoming tide. In the past there were major intellectual events which spurred a coming together of ideas. The Russian revolution, World War II, the end of the colonial arrogance, the Cold War ,Vietnam, the fall of the Berlin Wall created a wave of thought and creativity. Now the voices are muted and Trump was able during his four years of aberration to detrone sense and let noise rule. Thinkers and crators went into hiding. The time has come to wake up and to kill once and for ever the "alternative reality" which was house bred in this grotesque White House.

WHAT ABOUT THE CROWN ?

This new Netflix chapter in The Crown's saga was at the same time riveting and ordinary. The story is well-known and the behavior of the protagonists, looking like lost souls in a soap opera, is flabergasting. The royals are portrayed as being all about rituals and curtsies and about nothing else outside but their own moth-balled charades at home. They live in decors they inherited, by prerogatives which remain unquestioned and "ruling" over subjects they are clueless about. Even Diana runs "empty" in the midst of a pack of dogs.

The Crown can be seeen as an idictement of a system which is out of touch with reality, as much as the Tsarist regime was oblivious of its subjects. The Windsors are presented as fools without redemption. The "entourage" is made of deranged minds and arthritic knees that are beyond therapy.

Other second- and third-tier monarchs must look at this sad farce with an amount of dread and fear.  Presidents come and go. Trump or Nixon's attempts to install some pomp in the office were derided in the start blocks. The monarchical magic doesn't work any longer. Grace Kelly and Diana were actually "imports" who blew up the machine before becoming themselves victims of their Guy Fawkes attempts to let fresh air in.

This last Netflix batch felt tired and gloomy. The queen looks like being on automatic pilot.  Even Thatcher is reduced to a script made for a frustrated vicar's wife. The actress who plays Diana makes an almost heroic attempt to come close to the "myth" but her battle is too uphill to eclipse the original.  Camilla's part is kind of subversive:  cigarettes, whisky.

Reconstitutions and remakes are the more arduous if the original was a bummer to start with. Most of these people are too mediocre to attain a level of lasting interest. 

US ELECTIONS ACT 5 : THE DOGS OF THE PRESIDENT-ELECT

There is no better indication of modest renewal after the Trump nightmare than the news that the Bidens will inhabit the White House with two dogs and one cat (in waiting). Coming after this dehumanizing administration, a new normal slowly takes over.

The choices of personel hitherto made are reassuring, if not surprising. America will enter a more legitimate path. It remains to be seen if the Republicans will swallow their humiliation and return to opposition without sabotage. The party needs to recover from its ride into madness, but there are no indications of remorse or just plain courtesy to be seen. The senatorial election in Georgia could temper the mood in case the Democrats won. It could as well further sour the future if the Republicans win the two seats and continue to control the Senate.

The president-elect is more about restauration than innovation. His choices are safe but there is no sparkle as those which existed under Presidents Kennedy, Clinton or Obama.  It might be a good thing after all since the American patient remains in shock. There are still weeks ahead wherein Trump might claim attention without restraint. The son-in-law of the outgoing president is already heading for the Middle East with Trump's compliments. Everyone familiar with the goings-on in the region will be anxious to see what this sorcerer's apprentice might come up with.

The strategy of the outgoing administration is clear. It is about consolidation of measures in the diplomatic, economic, environmental, judiciary fields that will make it hard for the president-elect to undo. The "forgotten" American male in flyover territory must be rewarded for his loyalty to the flag and to God. Trump's heaven will continue to the last day to bestow pennies to the base.

The world looks on. Western Europeans are relieved, the Chinese are polite, the Russians are pros, the Brazilian fumes, Israel & Co. are resigned and the rest of the word doesn't give a damn.

In reality little will change in the immediate future. Some gestures (Paris agreement) can be expected. Some mood swings will calm down. Otherwise, the division is here to stay and America remains a country divided on civil war lines. This president-elect knows that anticipation of love is often contradicted by its realisation. One should wish him well, with the knowledge that he shouldn't count on the gentleman's behavior he knew in his former Senate years. Those days are bygones and a viper's nest has infested the Capitol. 

LES DIABLES ROUGES

A intervalles reguliers la Belgique existe. Le football est l'elixir qui  chasse, l'espace d'un match, la torpeur et le desenchantement. Les diables rouges operent a chaque fois ce miracle en creant une euphorie qui reunit trop brievement les Belges, toutes preferences et couleurs confondues.

Le systeme politique existant (plus subi que legitime) vient encore d'etre une noubelle fois oblige d'assumer sa banqueroute. L'accumulation de satrapies, de niveaux de pouvoir et de provincialime deletere en Belgique corrobore le Peter principle (le Diktat de l'incompetence). The Lancet et Amnesty International, viennent encore de mettre la Belgique au banc des accuses pour sa gestion souvent absurde de la pandemie. A observer la Belgique on finirait par croire que ce pays bat le record de nombres de climats, d'environnements, de normes, de priorites, voir de Covids 19...le pluriel, depouille de coherence, regne.

Le nouveau gouvernement reussit timidement a reafirmer une relative hierarchie . Le gouvernement flamand surtout, qui donne l'impression de vouloir renouer avec  sa "chanson de Roland" propre, a manifestent perdu les pedales et les eperons !

Enfin, restent les diables qui confirment que la diversite est la mere de tous les talents.

US ELECTIONS ACT 4 : DOWNFALL

After Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won these "horrible" elections, some hoped for some form of courteous healing. The president elect made all the right moves but the loser went in even fuller attack-mode. Washington has been set on fire, a first time by the British, now it might be a second time, by Trump.

Trump's histrionics and travesties of truth, Maduro-like, are just starting. There is worse to come.  In the end, the transmission of power will be disconnected from tradition and dignity. The presidential mantle can no longer be handed over, it lies in the gutter.

Trump has already the mark of Cain on his forehead. His unappealing parcours in his private life and shady business and financial dealings fill book after trashy novel.  In January 2021 the Trump brand will be open to scrutiny, as long as the statutes of limitation don't apply.  In fact, he might be indicted as soon as his immunity no longer covers his "deeds".

This potential common criminal might now also become a war criminal. To deflect, distract, he may indeed consider a crazy, desperate option in some foreign theatre or situation (which he knows nothing about). Such a move would dislodge the bad news from the media and please his mob of Christian lunatics who love to see the Stars and Stripes, where it doesn't belong.

Trump is not hard to understand. He is just hard to control. Like a cornered beast he will be tempted to engage in any move which might save him (and his mafia family) from humiliation. He is totally unable to live up to historical precedent or to moral heights.  Since his murky casino deals, bankrupcy has always been his winning formula. 

He doesn't care if the moves he might consider now may have dire consequences for the president-elect, or for the country. The applause of his base is all that remains, and what became his injured, welted Palme d'Or. 

His downfall is without redemption.

SAEB ERAKAT RIP

The "eternal Palestinian negociator" was a remarkable man.

His energy only matched the granite-like force of his arguments. His fight for the Palestinian cause reached the heights of an epic saga. He never ran out of patience, he never was able to control his rage. His more existential temper never stood in the way of his ability to listen, albeit with plenty of counter-arguments in store.

He was a true representative of all the sorrows of his people, without ever giving up on the endurance which made him a champion of the uphill battle. 

US ELECTIONS ACT 3 : Vice President-elect KAMALA HARRIS

Kamala Harris is "Wonderwoman" on Biden's ticket. This highly qualified personality, in state and national affairs, was able to play her cards both as a woman...and immigrant of Indian descent. She is the ideal representative of the West Coast liberal elites. She also doesn't provoke the hostile tidewaves which submerge the ambitions of AOC or Elisabeth Warren.

The choice made by the president-elect is even more important, given his age. Unlike some other former vice-presidents, she will not need a map to find her path in Washington or in the world. She is a true post-feminism individual who claims her place without having to add an exclamation point.

The contrast with the women in the Trump orbit and administration couldn't be starker.  Only some leftover of former charity stops further elaboration, which would be painful.

The wait for other results is long. The sitting president will not follow King Lear to the exit.  He must ruminate some Al Pacino tantrum which might keep his base entertained, and truth and trust further weakened. America is not out of the woods yet!

Kamala Harris brings a sunny mindset into these most frustrating days. Let us not be mistaken by the smiles, this lady in attack mode is a formidable oponent.  Lindsay Graham, the GOP's favorite Judas, knows better.

US ELECTIONS: ACT 2

Joe Biden is president-elect.

This does not mean that the movers will soon clear the White House from the Trump's gaudy makeover. The president will not clear the premises Napoleon-like. This regime change will be painful for Biden to endure and for others to watch.

The panic in the outgoing administration is real. Many will be indicted or face lawsuits that will certainly uncover the unpleasant truth of the Trump machine. Since past immunities will no longer apply, the future looks ominous. Hence a smooth transition is impossible, also given the boobytraps that will be laid in its path and the lawsuits that will follow.

Biden has been in self-control. The joy in the Democratic camp is only matched by the rage which runs deep in Trump's base. Contrary to what the pollsters expected, the result however is not an overall win for the Democrats. They lost seats in the House and a Senate majority is far from certain. The party has to come to terms with the ideological and generational tensions in its midst. The decibels coming out of the AOC camp put a lot of moderate voters off. 

Names are already circulating regarding the 'who's who' in the future Biden administration. Unfortunately, the individuals under consideration represent mostly the known core of the Democratic party: older, messy, and repetitive. It is surprising to see yet again how the gerontocracy still widely controls American politics. Some hoped for a 'Macron effect' but Biden feels too much at home in the party of old to resort to a radical renewal.  He should also put some bite in his post- election addresses, after all he doesn't lack teeth.

Fortunately he is committed to the standard parameters of American proven policies abroad and at home. The Obama heritage can be revisited and inproved upon. Yet again this departure from the chaos of the calamitous Trump years would be better served if an effort were made in the direction of the brillant younger talent which can be found in universities, business, think tanks and culture.

It is hard to believe that the former and new presidents will be able to stand together on the steps of the Capitol in January. Trump has zero inclination for history and tradition.  Besides, he dislikes to be humiliated, as he is now, almost prisoner in the mansion, Louis XVI-like. One knows how this ended!

Trump will  be missed by some, and cursed by others. He was never a happy personality. Now he might become an even more vengful one. 

US ELECTIONS ACT 1

The votes are not in, but Trump claims victory already, wrapped in false accusations and dark warnings.

The blue wave didn't happen. The country is surgically split in rural versus urban. The better intentions are still no match for gross entertainment.

The process is becoming more of a brainkiller than a nailbiter.

The waiting for the final result will take time.  In all this dysfunctional situation, there is one certified loser:  America.

If Biden wins he will have to be both a healer for the soul and a medic for the corpse.

USA : PRE-ELECTION BLUES

They shoot horses, don't they?

 After four years of chaos Americans deserve some respite. Tragically, the matrix which holds together the United States has been broken. If Biden wins, he will have to deal with a part of the population which has been led into some form of collective denial.  Trump would be an ungracious loser, by the way.  If he were to win, Americans and the world will be shellshocked.  The contenders will be exhausted after this marathon into hell: Trump because he thrives on exhaustian, Biden because he is certainly the more fragile, agewise, of the two.

The United States are united by name only. A great ambition and noble institutions are weakened, as the pillars that supported the American dream have been dissasembled. Even the Supreme Court was thrown into the bonfire lit by the mob. So whatever the outcome will be, the future looks grim. Biden deserves a clear victory, but even then the gates to the White House will be bolted by lies, disputes and maneuvers.

It is sad to watch so grand a history being slaughtered in full view of too many who say too little.  Only the voice of Obama still reaches the heights of indignation and sadness. His words feel closer to Shakespeare than to today's mediocre repetitive news cycle. We have arrived at a nauseous moment wherein the boundaries between the desirable and the objectional melt.  What makes Trump more palable than Putin or Xi Jinpin?  With Biden, the West would have its champion back (Kamala Harris as vice-president is like an insurance for the future). 

Fear has displaced hope. In normal times Americans (and their allies) would have hoped for change and for the restoration of harmony.  Today there is more Angst instead, because the values have been so corrupted that the rules of democracy are no longer trusted.  If either wins there will be riots, either out of spite or out of vengeance. The gallant patterns of before have been killed by the Republican Jacobins. It will take a generation to bring them back to normal.

The future is bleak. President Biden will be a Swiftian hero, too busy to overcome the booby traps he will find everywhere.   President Trump would not waste time before returning to his formal "normal", mutiplied because of his hypocondriac need for reprisal. If the Democrats were (against all odds) able to win over the Senate, the rules of the game could however dramatically change...for the good, whoever the president might be.

One had better count the hours until then and beware of what might happen counting the votes... Trump finds his inspiration in Belarus, not in Plato .

COVID 19 , CONCERTO EN BELGE MAJEUR

La cacophonie belge autour de la pandemie, conduit moins au dereglement des sens qu'au derapage de la raison.

Les premiers ministres Sophie Wilmes et Alexander De Croo ont les justes intentions. Malheureusement les nains communautaires et regionaux qui les entourent continuent leur guerilla contre le Federal . L'opinion publique decouvre soudain qu'il y a dans cette piece de Pirandello bas de gamme d'autres personages en quete d'auteur dont ils ignoraient l'existence . Rudy Vervoort, ministre-president bruxellois, entoure de ses 19 bourgmestres, vient de decider un couvre-feu des 22h. Ce tableau vivant moyen-ageux fait redecouvrir aux Belges l'etendue de leur chagrin (pardon Hugo Claus). Les Wallons suivent (comme au Tour). Les Flamands boudent ( par reflexe). On ne parle plus de Conseil de securite (le ridicule l'ayant acheve) mais de Comite de concertation ou les memes enfoires entourent le PM avant de l'achever.

La pandemie demontre une nouvelle fois l'absence de vision. Il s'en suit une situation chaotique sur le dos du Federal. Plusieurs voix plaident en faveur d'une cure de desintoxication regionale . Helas, ces bourgmestres "genre blague belge" et ces ministres qui hantent les studios de RTL sont coriaces. Ils defendent des resaux d'interets locaux et finissent par ressembler a des petits Ubu-Roi ou brasseurs Balzaciens . Du cote flamand on travaille a un code qui doit achever une fois pour toutes l'histoire creee par Pirenne (autre oublie) et la remplacer une nouvelle chanson de Roland made in Flanders. Pendant ce temps les technologies avancent, le choc des idees  devient intolerable et une Europe de jour en jour plus goguenarde se retrouve en poule C.

On fait peu de cas des bouleversements pourtant previsibles de la pandemie. Les consequences risquent d'etre fondamentales, touchant aux modes de vie, de travail et de comportement. Elles vont creer de nouveaux algorithmes, systemes, services, et modes de communication pour lesquels les Etats et Institutions internationales ne se trouvent pas prepares. Le SIDA a fini par bouleverser les consciences. Le Covid 19 requiert d'ores et deja une revision totale des modeles de civilisation. On attend Fukuyama au retour.

Cela nous eloigne de l'etat des lieux en Belgique. La science y est deja obligee a ceder le pas au politique. Cela se passe d'ailleurs aussi dans d'autres pays mais de facon moins systematique. Ici le bizarre regne, comme dans l'oeuvre de Magritte, a ceci pres que la ou  l'artiste faisait rever , le "politique-apprenti-sorcier" fait peur ! C'est du cote de James Ensor qu'il faut chercher le clef du "mystere" belge.

USA : LES VIOLONS LONGS DE L'AUTOMNE

Le temps des grandes reunions "therapeutiques" a vecu. Les questions fondamentales n'ayant jamais cesse de diviser le monde, elles ont logntemps continue a mobiliser les Etats autant que les personnalites - decideurs et ces rencontres a geometrie variable contribuaient a moduler les inquietudes et a normaliser certaines tensions. Certes les succes furent [ltot rares mais les pressions ainsi exercees  contribuatent a relativiser les incompatibilites.

Ces grand-messes obeissaient a des imperatifs bien definis autant qu'a des vanites aleatoires. Certaines ont meme continue, par simple  habitude. Le narcissisme de Davos ou le simulacre de l'Assemblee Generale des Nations Unies n'ont en commun que l'endurance des participants et leur desir d'apparaitre comme voyageant en Premiere. 

Il  faut bien sur se garder de generaliser. L'accord sur le changement climatique par exemple constitue une avance tangible dans le management planetaire.

Les cenacles pour happy few, genre Bilderberg ou Jackson Hole constituent des "franc-maconneries" a part.

Les sommets de l'OTAN et de l'UE se suivent et se ressemblent sans plus. C'est dommage. 

On aurait pu imaginer que le Covid 19 mobiliserait les efforts des uns et des autres. Helas la pandemie s'accroit et creue toujours davantage le fosse qui separe dangereusement les mondes politique et scientifique.

Comment  en est-on arrive la ? Dans le passe on avait pourtant reussi a mettre toutes les parties concernees par le conflit au Moyen Orient autour d'une table a Madrid. La crise du SIDA a oblige tout le monde (ou a peu pres) de combattre ensemble ce genocide de la nouvelle generation.

Aujourd'hui le monde est a bout de souffle. Tout ce qui pourrait contribuer a l'addition des efforts et de la reflexion semble sabote. Les strategies politiques les meilleures sont abandonnees au profit d' interets  sordides voir meme de reflexes paranoiaques.

Depuis 4 ans Trump a poursuivi un reglement de compte personnel, qui sous le couvert d"America first", a conduit a un systeme mondial en ruines et a une Amerique renvoyee en classe C, avec le Bresil et Co. La complementarite Atlantique se retrouve aux urgences. Trump ayant  saborde la TPP (Trans Pacicic Partnership) la Chine a desrrmais les mains libres . Ce president n'a d'autre dessein diplomatique que la revanche et une pique maladives . 

Il devient donc impossible de s'accorder a plusieurs, voir meme de se concerter dans un G 6,7,20 ou X. S'il perd les elections, Trump n'hesitera pa a sqatter la Maison Blanche. S'il gagne, mieux vaudra trouver un locataire pour l'OTAN a Bruxelles. Dans toutes les hypotheses la fin de 2020 promet d'etre deplaisante.

 Reste que Trump pourrait encore vanter tel ou autre remede contre le Covid 19 dans lequel il aura des interets....Soyons assures que ce ne sera pas l'Elixir d'amour.

Il faudra du temps avant que les theatres des grandes reunions ne s'ouvrent a nouveau. Il conviendra encore d'attendre la disparition  des mauvais acteurs .

 La loi de Gresham veut que bad money drives out good. 

CQFD !

THE WHITE HOUSE: UN BALLO IN MASCHERA

The president stumbled over the Covid-19 (of his own making). So did many in his entourage, as a result of his reckless behavior.

Like in all things he does, Trump was yet again unable to reign in his more histrionic behavior.  Hence, what should have been respected became despised. The doctors appeared like a group of mercenaries out of a Moliere scenario.  His salute to the small delegation of the flag-waving base came close to some Mel Brooks farce (Springtime for Hitler). The helicopter tour was taken from Apocalypse Now. The arrival (bas les masques) and the balcony scene were stolen from Gladiator.

The welcoming crowd was sparse since many of his aides suffer likewise from what he (still) has. They might be on call, since the 'Master of the Coup' is not out of the woods yet. 

The president is nevertheless impatient to meet his followers again. He will resort to every trick at his disposal to return to his adoring Neanderthals. He might as well defend another quack recipe to put to rest the anxiety which rules the American waves.

The war against the remnants of decency and truth is not over. November 5 might not bring solace, but announce a civil war of sorts. Until then, every effort or plot will be considered to fill the vacated seat on the Supreme Court with the Republican, conservative sweetheart: a woman at war with human rights! Since the Supreme Court might be the ultimate arbiter of the outcome of the elections, she is Trump's ultimate weapon of mass-destruction.

This running comedia dell'arte, Trump-style, owes more to Arturo Ui than to Goldoni!

ALEXANDER DE CROO

Alexander de Croo a reussi a former un gouvernement en Belgique. Pour cela il a ete aide par le Parti  Socialiste, en la personne de son president Paul Magnette qui aura marque le programme gouvernemental de ses priorites. Le nouveau Premier Ministre n'est pourtant pas de ceux qui se laissent prendre en otage. Il a eu la classe de privilegier l'Etat avant les interets.

Ce gouvernement relativement jeune, compose pour moitie de femmes, n'est pas sans compter des  personalites "surprise" et suggere meme un style "new look". Lors des negociations, l'opinion publique s'est deja etonnee des choix vestimentaires branches de la nouvelle generation politique belge. Decidement les costumes compasses ont fait leur temps. Les idees recues  n'ont plus la cote.

Ce gouvernement est assez bien accueilli mais sous surveillance. Les partis flamands radicaux sont renvoyes dans les tranchees de l'opposition. On peut s'attendre a ce qu'ils meneront la vie dure a une coalition soupconnee de vouloir freiner la mouvance confederale. Ils n'ont pas le choix car ils risquent gros en apparaissant isoles a court terme puis marginalises si De Croo reussisait son pari. Les deux partis Flamands (majoritaires en Flandre) pourraient envisager une alliance, bien que le N-VA de Bart De Wever se sente deja comme faisant partie de l'Establishment. 

Ce gouvernement choisi l'international. Les references a la politique etrangere sont nombreuses. Avec Sophie Wilmes aux Affaires Etrangeres on est en  droit de s'attendre a ce que la Belgique retrouve sa voix et son role.

Il reste urgent de s'adresser prioritairement aux problemes lies a l'effondrement socio-economique cause par le Covid 19. La pauvrete gagne chaque jour du terrain. Il faut coute que coute arreter cette derive dangereuse et integrer  la partie de la population la plus defavorisee dans la recherche d'un nouveau "contrat social".

L'intelligence de la formule choisie consistera a s'efforcer d'endosser le role d'un laboratoire d'idees. Certes, il serait naif de vouloir faire table rase des comportements passes, devenus fatalement des servitudes. Encore faut-il que l'ambition l'emporte sur la repetition.

La crise a ete longue. Le soulagement est certain. Alexander de Croo doit agir vite et essayer de prouver que le changement reside davantage dans le fonds que dans le ton. Les baskets et jeans des negociateurs qui etaient a l'honneur ces dernieres semaines ne suffisent pas pour accrediter l'arrivee de cette nouvelle levee politique. The taste is in the pudding !

THE TRUMP DUMPSTER

The first presidential debate should be the last...not to be repeated !

Trump was again the creature out of the swamp. Biden could hardly maintain a semblance of dignity in this imposed descent into the mud. The moderator tried to  "manage", but Trump chose to be what he is and how his "base" loves to see him, breaking all the rules of civility. He belongs after all to the vulgar world of lucha libre.

This deplorable spectacle probably turned more heads than it changed minds. Republicans and Democrats got what they bargained for, demolition man versus a more existential personality. The mood in America is such, the morale is so low, that fatigue might as well dislodge reason. If there is still room left for the rational, the Democrats should win. Unfortunately, the atmosphere has become so polluted that voters might just close the windows and stay home. If Trump were to win a second term, one might as well kiss the USA goodbye.

This populist American gutter wave is a wildfire which can be seen in other parts of the world. Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court fits perfectly in Poland or Hungary. The ayatollahs have their Christian counterparts. The EU and others had better get ready for a Plan B. Even if the outcome were to favor the Democrats, America is stabbed in the back for years to come. The Republicans bargained with the devil and were able to take the country hostage to a wave of younger Christian conservatives. The country is split today, it could be broken tomorrow. Europeans had better avoid being too close to a corpse. Let's imagine how other friendly and less-friendly countries watched yesterday's Barnum show. Disbelief and horror fight over the outcome. Biden was able to manage his anger but the claws of the beast continued to slaughter any remnant of civility.

Europeans must take stock of what is left of the American dream. They have to adjust to two scenarios. If Trump wins they will enter the years of a painful separation and be left to manage their Atlantic and Eastern "marches" alone. If Biden wins, the terms for reconstruction of the Zeitgeist of the past should be generous, since a Democratic president would also have to deal with the enemy within. Since Chancellor Merkel will be gone it will befall on President Macron to take up the European leadership. This task will be all the more difficult since contradictory pressures-- emanating from Putin and the Vysegrad block--will be set loose. Fukuyama's End of History might need a second burial.

Lately, the mood and style of the Trump regime looks more and more eager to copy the Albert Speer scenario. Tragically here again the undertakers are taking over from the creators. The culture war is being waged against all that became the core of Western civilization: freedom of choice. The American president is often compared to a clown.  Indeed, but as in Stephen King's novels, this particular clown is heinous.

RUTH BADER GINSBURG

RBG was a great personality, judge, progressive icon and just an amazing human being. It is sad that circumstances derail comments from their course. Instead of celebrating her extraordinary achievements, the dire political and constitutional consequences of her demise overshadow every other more existential consideration.

Trump soils everything that happens under his outlaw rule. The garbage collectors in his circle are too busy cleaning up the lies and the dirt to find time for a civilized moment. The Supreme Court, in the hands of this president, becomes yet again another casualty of this permanent Republican Kristallnacht, orchestrated by Trump's henchmen Mitch McConnell and Attorney General William Barr.

The presidential elections in November are no longer about Trump or Biden. They are about Trump or death.

CORONA ENCORE : LE MASQUE ET LE STYX.

Tout a ete dit sur le Covid 19, sauf l'essentiel. Les pays et parties concernes continuent a imaginer des formules qui pourraient contribuer a maitriser la pandemie.

L'ordre disperse entre toutes ces interventions permet mal la mobilisation des moyens et des reflexes, bien qu'il s'agisse d'un phenomene global. Ici, comme pour le changement climatique, des interets honteux et certains reflexes politico-culturels empechent une strategie partagee. Meme au sein de l'Union europeenne la cacophonie l'emporte sur la reflexion.

Certes, a court terme il s'agit de freiner un fleau qui met a mal la vie des  individus. Il est normal qu'il y ait eu des erreurs et des fautes de communication. Encore faut-il faire le tri entre l'errone et le fabrique. Aux Etats Unis l'administration Trump a une nouvelle fois manipule les faits. Cela s'est aussi produit ailleurs, en Russie et en Chine. L'Union Europenne  n'a rien fabrique mais elle a ete prise en defaut, negligeant de faire l'effort en vue d'harmoniser autant que possible les mesures prises entre partenaires. Ce desordre a encourage aussi l'apparition de conspirations absurdes ou de mises en accusation injustifiees.

La disparite a encore conduit a ne pas suffisament prendre en compte les effets a long terme d'une pandemie qui risque de peser sur l'avenir des plus jeunes et de mettre a mal le tissu socio economique des Etats. Comme le message des autorites ne convainc pas, la mobilisation necessaire ne le suit pas. Or cette crise requiert des personnalites de la trempe de Churchill. On est loin de compte, quoique le Covid 19 va necessiter des revisions strategiques. Il conviendra de repenser les depenses, les budgets militaire et autres -en premier lieu la Sante -, ou les deficits qui risquent de fragiliser le PNB. 

Les Etats-Unis sont comme "Venus toute entiere a sa proie attachee" comme dirait Racine. Votant Trump ils se sont places hors jeu. Personne ne prend la releve, ce qui arrange la "concurrence" et cree des francs-tireurs. Certains esperent qu'une presidence Biden pourra reequilbrer la situation. Encore fautdrait-il qu'il emporte les presidentielles avec un score irrefutable. Rien n'est moins sur.

Devant la paralysie des rassembleurs, les "interruptions" ont le champs libre. Le risque est reel de voir les distractions devenir la regle. Deja on est arrive a la confusion voulue des faits par l'apparition et l'encouragemt de la "realite alternative", imposee -avec brio- par Trump. Cet avatar du populisme fait deja son apparition en Europe, ou un folklore doteux a commence a deloger la pertinence globale

Il est curieux de voir combien certains discours, programmes politiques, esthetiques et  creations font marche arriere  etcommencent a renouer avec des "racines" homogenes rassurantes. Spinoza recule devant de Gobineau.

Qui se souvient d'Aylan Kurdi ou des Martinez Ramirez  candidats refugies, noyes aux antipodes, Mediterranee et Rio Grande, et oublies depuis... Il est vrai que les "perdants" de Lesbos trouvent aussi peu de "preneurs" .

Oui, le Covid 19 a quitte le domaine du masque pour se rapprocher dangereusement des rivages du Styx.

JOACHIM COENS ondermeer....

Men kan zich terecht de vraag stellen waarom nog zoveel aandacht uitgaat naar de voorzitter van de CD&V. Deze saaie figuur heeft zich tot nu toe alleen laten opmerken door het dragen van een soort harlekijn mantel, die misschien bedoelt was als verwijzing naar de vele standen binnen de partij. De CD&V van wijlen Jean Luc Dehaene is niet meer. Zij heeft nog de aantrekkingskracht van een spaars bijgewoonde hoogmis. Joachim Coens is voorzeker een best hoffelijke persoonlijkheid, maar het charisma van een retraite is niet opwindend.

De vandaag overwogen Vivaldi formule is mede aantrekkelijk omdat ze eindelijk de jongere generatie van politici (voorlopig) kan mobiliseren. Paul Magnette ziet er nu uit als een oudere staatsman. De formule is wel potentieel gevaarlijk omdat ze de N-VA naast zich neerlegt. Het duo De Wever / Francken in de oppositie valt niet te onderschatten . Een kartelvorning met Vlaams Belang kan ook op termijn niet worden uitgesloten, met alle gevolgen vandien voor het voortbestaan van deze Vlaamse regering.

De kiezer wil een relance.  Elke formule (ook enieuwe verkiezingen) moet uitendelijk een ekonomisch herstel centraal stellen. Een regering moet nu vooral een agelsaksisch communicatie potentieel voorstellen. De Covid 19 heeft opnieuw aangetoond hoe onmondig, pathetisch de Belg omgaat met taalvaardigheid. In tegenstelling met de buurlanden blijft de spreektaal hier een middenweg kiezen tussen het platvloers en het onhandige. De Oscar van het taal - rampgbied gaat ex-quo naar  Maggie De Block en Francois Belot (wie wist dat wij een minister van mobiliteit hadden ?).

Als Premier worden de namen van Alexander De Croo en Paul Magnette vernoemd. De naam van Koen Geens valt (weinig) op. Sophie Wilmes was the right woman in the right place. Zij is een politica met klasse en heeft aangetoond te kunnen incasseren en afstand nemen ten overstaan van de gebruikelijke kleinschalige burgeroorlog. Haar vertrouwelijkheid met budget is een plus punt voor een mogelijke Premier.

De staatshevorming komt er. Per Se is daar niets op aan te merken, alleszins voor wie wil afbouwen wat niet werkt en creatief herstellen wat haalbaar is in de huidige politieke conjunctuur. Belgie, en ook de deelstaten, moet worden afgeslankt . Bevoegdheden moeten worden doorgestuurd naar transparente beheerders liever dan onderverdeeld tussen kibbbelenede nobodies. Belgie heeft hehoefte aan  gedrag therapie. De onhandigheid in existentiele dossiers ( Jozef Chovanec, Sanda Dia, structurele armoede, stedelijke verloedering, enzv.) is onaanvaardbaar.

Na een samenloop van twee moreel uitputtende cycli - Corona en regeringshiaat - heeeft he land nood aan socio ekonomische mobilisatie. De burger is de politieke curatele beu. Of de vox populi zal overwegen boven eigenbelang en kortzichtigheid zullen de eerstkomende dagen aanwijzen. Het blijft verbazend  telkens opnieuw te moeten vrezen dat belgische politici uitmunten in hitting below the intellect.

CHADWICK BOSEMAN +

Black panter, Wakanda....He enlarged our imagination, and we were mesmerized by a sense of joy, sexiness and power. 

Probably the Hollywood machine rewarded him, but he returned the favor  ! Spartacus today is black.

BLM !

THE UGLY REPUBLICAN SHOW

After the Democratic "deliberative" convention, the Republicans chose a different format, built around an arc of lies and shouts. The unholy first family closed ranks around their anointed Godfather.  The GOP of old Buckley/Kissinger days is history. The current power stakeholders are generally white, old and clinging to a man they often despise but are too scared to counter, since his departure would even shorten what is left of their pathetic lifetimes.

The Republican performance was yet again all about appropriation. Trump used every decor and trick to enhance his appearance. The president always came before the candidate. Even Melania re-appropriated the Rose Garden for her own sulky benefit. Soon we might see Trump in bathrobe again (as in his former heyday casino pictures) in the Lincoln Bedroom.

For diversity, the convention paraded various bona fide props-- gun addicts, sleep addicts (Ben Carson), a misplaced secretary of State (who had nothing to do there) and some family members  (except the ones who have trashed the president.) Only Kyle Rittenhouse, the teenager and Trump enthusiast who killed an unarmed protester in Kenosha (Wisconsin), couldn't make it in time. The Trump base must have loved it.

The gloves are off. There is nothing wrong by adhering to a conservative agenda or to have a religious belief. The Second Amendment belongs to the American psyche and nobody should stand in the way of its intent, which has nothing in common with its excess. Racial and LBGT discrimination should already be a shared concern for all. Healthcare chaos has to end. Archaic remnants--the Electoral College and voter suppression--stand in the way of democracy. There is so much more to argue in foreign affairs: the Trans Pacific Partnership, WHO, climate, Putin's hand, Chinese rise...all tombstones in Trump's graveyard.

A hybrid civil war looks unavoidable. It doesn't make that much difference if Trump wins or loses. Either he will continue unhindered or he will booby-trap the sequence (Maduro style). What is at stake is America. It will take time to recover from these four fraudulent years of family and geriatric rule. The lies have almost exhausted the phreatic water that is needed for truth to grow.

Unfortunately the time for gallant dispute is over. Trump's God lovers and gun addicts are beyond salvation. There can no longer be sympathy for a sect of losers. If they choose for contrition, so be it. If they don't, get ready for confrontation. There is a formidable, growing American left in a holding pattern, that might surprise the world.

JOE BIDEN FOR PRESIDENT

The Democratic "convention" was smooth, diverse and well staged. The contrast with the near- and far-abroad could not have been starker. 

Trump had another day in hell. A judge ruled yet again that he has to open his tax returns. His Rasputin, Steve Bannon, was arrested on charges of fraud...another associate of the Don-in-chief joined the list of the corrupt and the damned. Soon Trump should consider building a Trump Jail for his future cellmates!

Jerry Falwell, president of the Liberty University, and pope of the Evangelicals is also under suspicion of embezzlement. Like Bannon, he seems to have had a love relationship with yachts and their owners...might have something to do with the Sea of Galilee. 

Gun violence has spiked in America. To celebrate, the gun freaks will have their special slot during the Republican convention (imagine?!)

In the far-abroad, but still in Trump's circle, Aleksei Navalny is in intensive care after having been taken ill with symptoms of what might have been poisoning. In Putin's realm this is a mere Page Six event, business as usual. I am sure that Trump is envious of Putin's exit strategy.

To return to the next president and vice-president. They were both impressive. They lift America out of the structural depression Trump brought into life. Most speakers were also disciplined and to the point, a rare change for the notoriously verbose Democrats. President Obama prosecuted Trump's four years of hell as if he were in Nuremberg.  

Lady Litton said of Churchill that "the first time you meet him you see all his faults, and the rest of your life you spend discovering his virtues". The same applies to Joe Biden. He is not a perfect man but he is a man of virtue, both in admitting personal pain and mistakes and in a passionate belief that men and women can cross aisles, paths and each others' destinies. Yes, America is in retreat, because of the egomaniac laziness of an usurper. Before he was elected, some liberals thought that Trump could be a wake-up call...how dumb could some well-meaning enlightened individuals be? The same Faustian bargain brought us Hitler in the past!

The coming months will be brutal. In case he loses, do not expect to find the movers in front of the presidential mansion. Get ready for the lawyers and the troops. Trump has an impediment that is worth scrutinizing. He is absolutely unable to face fact, truth, atonement. He grew up in mortar and sleaze and he will go down as a nouveau riche avatar with nothing to show but his tax returns (which will only illustrate again the full range of a deranged mind.)

After all this the Biden/Harris team looks more and more as a dream ticket. Handle with care!

HET VERDRIET VAN BELGIE (ANNO 2020)

De nationale feestdag 2020 was triest. De koninklijke familie liep verloren tussen de kasseien. De ceremonie  was kort, gelukkig maar. Het optrden van Adamo was bijna surrealistisch. De kinderen van het Koningspaar wisten niet waar hij vandaar kwam.

 

   

De pijnlijke regeringsformatie woog ook op de algemene ambiance. Geen dag gaat voorbij zonder dat ook uit het buitenland nieuwe karikaturen overwaaien die Belgie in een onplezierig dagbeeld voorstellen. 

Dit was te verwachten voor wie nog wil zien hoe onhandig  Belgische politici de media kultuur aanpakken. Zij drukken zich meestal erbarmelijk uit en zijn camera onvriendelijk. De weinigen die het beter doen worden onmiddellijk teruggefloten  door de achterban Wie de communicatie eindstreep haalt is verdacht. In het doorsnee DNA van de Belg zit geen macro ambitie of herinnering , in tegenstelling met Nederland.

Het "odd couple" Magnette / De Wever had het waarschijnlijk meer over een zachte echtscheiding dan over aan afgeslankt efficient bestuur. 

De Covid 19 heeft enkele van de ontelbare excellenties, die dit land (amper) kent, de gelegenheid gegeven uit hun betaalde irrelevatie te treden. De Belg werd aldus plotseling geconfronteerd met individuen die hij niet kent en waarvan hij het nut nu ook niet inziet. Zelf in de federale regering trouwens kwamen er onbekenden aan het woord , waarvan men zich afvraagt waarvoor ze dienen. 

Jongere politici schijnen het absurde in te zien. Socialisten, Liberalen en Groenen hebben talentvolle niewe persoonlijkheden. De NVA heeft ook bewezen dat ze een regeringspartij is. 

Het zit nu klem, ook omwege van die generatiewissel. In een land dat niet befaamd is voor zijn oratorisch talent, blijven de woorden en ukazes van de oud gedienden elke conceptuele vooruitgang in de weg staan.

Woorden moeten worden gecontextualiseerd. Confederalisme is geen taboe. Herfederalisering is het nog minder. Indien een nieuw beginpunt kan worden afgewogen met parallele leuningen (efficientie, transparantie, solidariteit) wordt het ipso facto bespreekbaar. Belgie is aan herstel toe. De Heimat verleiding noord en zuid moet worden omgebogen.

Handel, milieu, gezondheidszorg, buitenlandse zaken, defensie (met een nieuw Bfast) , sociale opvang, financien, transport, energie o.a. kunnen centraal worden doorgelicht en opgewaardeerd. De algoritmes moeten worden bijgestuurd. 

Covid 19 heeft opnieuw alle Belgische tekortkomingen blootgelegd. Gelukkig kon Sophie Wilmes nog redden wat er nog te redden viel. Het bilan blijft echter negatief. De huidige regeringsploeg is intellectueel, moreel te onevenwichtig  samengesteld om koherent over te komen.

Het is nu uikijken naar wat de Koning nog kan suggereren.

Nieuwe of zelfde preformateur(s) ? Kroonraad ? Verkiezingen ? Regering van technokraten met een specifiek mandaat ? De stembus nu is de slechtste oplossing. De patient moet worden begeleid, liever dan omgebracht !

De tijd van onvervulde beloften is over. Wij zitten in een nieuwe beschavingscyclus maar schijnen nog altijd niet te willen beseffen dat de maatschappij die we kennen voorgoed van de baan is. De socio-ekonomische consequenties van Covid 19 zijn daarbij onoverzienlijk. Het is tijd voor een nieuwe generatie om op te komen met een Marshall plan dat mobiliseert meer dan het verdeelt.

 

TRUMP'S AUGUST SURPRISE

It has been said here some time ago that Trump would come up with some unforeseeable surprise to distract from his abysmal behavior, before the elections. If the Americans will be thrilled by the new soap staring Netanyahu and Mohamed bin-Zayed  remains to be seen.  Whatever the reason and the murky context might be, the fact is that this latest development is important both for what it achieves and for what it might foreshadow.

The rapprochement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a welcome development. It confirms the split between Iran, Qatar, and Turkey versus the rest. Bahrain and Oman might follow the UAE. The Saudis are still stuck in the aftermath of Jamal Khashoggi's murder. Israel suspends (for now) the annexation of land claimed by the Palestinians. Knowing both the Israeli PM's animosity towards the Palestinians and the indifference of their Arab "brothers", the cause of a two-state solution has suffered here and now another setback.

With Trump and Jared Kushner at the helm, one can be assured that money spoke yet again louder than principle. The "art of the deal" is after all what it is, a transaction that looks great on TV. It can already be ascertained that the Trump years will make for a great prime-time series following the story line of Succession.

It is probable that this new Trump performance took almost all other interested parties by surprise. One can bet that there are more "stunts" in the making. The fear of defeat in the November elections is the mother of wicked inspiration. North Korea, Venezuela are waiting for Midas' touch. While the Covid-19 continues to write another chapter in the epic story of the American way of death, Trump must divert the attention. Maybe the Evangelicals who are enraptured by the "holy land" will celebrate another Bibi coup, but the Palestinians are again the forgotten "tribe".

The EU has stood often historically and financially with the Palestinians. It has a moral responsibility. The times of special envoys, of the Quartet, are bygones for now. Since the EU has assumed a creative role in the past it should renew its involvement through various means and unhindered visibility. Neither the Americans, nor the Arabs must be allowed to let a just cause unravel. Let Kosovo be a touchstone for what the EU could still do and manage. The Palestinians in Ramallah appear unfortunately like an exhausted corpse,

The current US never tries to inform, consult, or coalesce with the EU or NATO (still functioning  in the Bermuda triangle of Greece, Turkey and US ?). 

A Biden administration would certainly respect a formal agreement, concluded under American auspices, as it should.  Still, a window should also be considered for re-opening Middle East talks about a more ambitious goal. Dealing with "clients" (Israel and the UAE) should not be permissible if it is done on the back of justice for all involved in the region. When diplomacy becomes a "trivial pursuit," there is something rotten there.

KAMALA HARRIS

In choosing Kamala Harris as his running mate, Joe Biden has shown he holds no grudges. She has the class and the resume to help Biden put America back on the map of the "normal".

Other potential candidates were almost equally good but might have been too easy targets for the Republican Sturmtrupper.  The campaign will be ugly anyway. Count on the gang of the old crowd of white, right-wing, Evangelicals to cheat, smear and collude (preferably with Russia again). Wisely, the likes of Elisabeth Warren and Susan Rice were not considered for the VP slot, because they were "catnip" for the likes of Fox/Goebbels news.

Suddenly the Democrats sense an opportunity.  Likewise abroad, the West hopes that the USA might find its polar star again. A Biden/Harris presidency would undo the damage inflicted by Trump on America and the world. In four year this administration has made America almost a pariah state. Even with the best intentions it will take years to recover the rule of law and inclusive pride.

The election remains an uphill battle for the Democrats. Trump is like Godzilla, unsophisticated but deadly. He will resort to "every" means and trick to stay and to divert from a possible loss. Biden is an emotional personality, more fragile both in age and feelings. He had to overcome terrible personal dramas and it shows. One forgets in this stone age that there are still individuals who admit to pain,hurt and dreams. Kamala Harris will certainly add stamina and a sense of confidence to the ticket. 

It is a positive change that the country can once again see itself in the pairing of two personalities who appear as if they could play a part in a Frank Capra movie. Maybe we will still have fun again, and rekindle with a sense of joy, which was once upon a time America's realm.

PRESIDENT MACRON IN BEIRUT

The French president visited Beirut. Certain images reminded history buffs of Napoleon tending to the French army's plague victims in Jaffa in 1799. One can bet that Macron, who knows history, was all too aware of the precedent.

France had always a special relationship with Lebanon, not always for the better.  Recently, the bond between President Jacques Chirac and then Lebanese P.M. Rafiq al-Hariri became almost all too obvious. The current President Michel Aoun who played a dubious role in the past is shunned by most. Since the Lebanese president is supposed to be a Maronite Christian, the "pool" of candidates is shrinking. Hezbollah remains the unavoidable force and influence one has to reckon with.

After the barrack bombings in 1983 which killed 241 US military, President Reagan ordered the American withdrawal from Lebanon. Observers said that once again this cut and run decision amounted to the infamous new US mantra of   "abandoning ship".

Lebanon is as divided as ever with Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah as supreme divider. Israel's military incursion in Lebanon in 1982 was one of the main major blunders in the region, which only magnified the role of the extremes. It got rid of the PLO and got Hezbollah!

Macron's gesture and words might have sounded as if Lebanon was still a French Protectorate but he said the right things anyway. After him, the visit of the president of the EU Counsel was more bla-bla than words.

It is hard to project a tenable future. Aid is already contentious. The street is a cauldron and the government and elites act clueless.  Some Egyptian-style "Lebanese Spring" would only accelerate the unwelcome intrusion of Syria and the Russian Federation, and Co.

Netanyahu shouldn't be encouraged to enter yet again the Lebanese puzzle and offer another distraction from his own personal murky affairs.

The Americans are for the time-being "out", and better stay out until Trump is gone. By the way couldn't the Sixth Fleet have been given a  humanitarian task in this situation ?

At the end of the day, Macron's visit was a major boost, mostly for the Christian minority in Beirut. Nevertheless, it may mostly have rescued an elan from being taken hostage by fatality, the curse of the Levant. Noble intended gestures are too rare nowadays to be relegated to theatre. Words still carry weight when backed up by class. Macron made other world leaders look sooo small, yet again!

FORMATION DE GOUVERNEMENT EN BELGIQUE : LE PARTAGE DU GATEAU ?

On etait en droit d'esperer qu'apres le Covid 19 une reflexion politique de niveau aurait pu demarrer. Cette crise a une nouvelle fois demontre que le "modele" belge est bancal. D'aucuns suggerent une refederalisation de cetains secteurs et un elagage des inombrables ministres que compte cette nef de fous.

Le contraire est en train de se produire. Les deux negociateurs representant chacun le parti majoritaire en Flandre et en Wallonie envisagent une coalition qui preserve en premier lieu leurs pre-carres respectifs. Il s'agit d'un calcul, sur le dos de l'efficacite et de la transparence. Les liberaux se sont laisses berner. Georges-Louis Bouchez a de bonnes idees mais il est mauvais tacticien, sous-estimant  Bart De Wever qui est un Machiavel flamand. 

On risque donc d'arriver a une continuite de ce qui fonctionne mal, mais qui arrange les interets de partis qui pourront consolider leur base politique regionale au detriment de la consideration honnete d'une gestion "moderne", debarassee de l'accessoire. Il est trop tot pour predire si les deux apprentis sorciers arriveront au final, mais il est clair qu'une opportunite a ete gachee en amont .

Le confederalisme refait ainsi surface par le biais d'un defaitisme endemique. Pareille formule serait somme toute moins inquietante si elle etait balisee par des gardes-fou credibles. Si elle ne touche pas a la diagonale du fou qui traverse le pays, elle devient franchement dangereuse. Ce pays etouffe sous le nombre d'excellences que personne ne (re)connait, de gouvernements ridicules et d'administrations ineffables .

Quelques nouveaux venus au SP, ECOLO et MR semblent conscients du dilemne. Encore faudrait-il qu'ils occupent mieux le terrain des idees, qui, ici comme ailleurs, est manipule par "l'alternatif ". L'envers et l'endroit ne s'opposant plus, les faits sont detournes de leur signification. La malediction  Trump n'epargne rien n'y personne.

On peut craindre que les formateurs sont plus preoccupes par leur mainmise sur leurs provinces que par une ambition de relance economique et de confiance retrouvee. Cela requiere d'ailleurs une ambition culturelle et philosophique qui, ici comme ailleurs, fait defaut. Les liberaux ou les Verts pourraient tenter une "sortie" - tardive - pour essayer de redresser la situation. Bonne chance !

AIDS and CORONA : DIFFERENT STORIES.

One hears often that AIDS and Covid-19 present similar characteristics and consequences. Nothing could be more false.

AIDS was a curse which first targeted a specific group of men who often represented the more creative pool in society. In reality the arts in general were almost decimated in a fortnight. Besides their own drama, the dying had to endure the early indifference of a political class which had little empathy for a group of men who had often kept their distance. In fact, AIDS was a "smart" force to reckon with, because the victims were selectively "chosen". The counter-offensive was a philosophical outcry of absolute indignation...a Guernica redux.

The Covid-19 is a "dumb", sly virus that attacks at random whoever crosses its path. Today the reaction is more political  than metaphysical. The aggression against so many confronts the political class with a question of praxis. Because the messaging from governments is often so inadequate or plainly false (in Trump's or Bolsonaro's case) the impatience for an answer will only grow. This mortal Bingo game will have major consequences for the future. In the short term it only highlights the shortcomings of governments who act like Gogol's puppets in what might become an era of social unrest.

It is important not to deprive victims of their stories. There lies a morality in the rejection of confusion. Each is entitled to remain the owner of his/her drama.  Covid-19 is a scourge in progress. It is too early to settle cause and effect.  It is time, however, to stop making superficial allegations. These only end in reducing the existential message brought by the "Angels in America" then, and further obscure the responsibility of the hapless undertakers in the times of Covid-19 now.

LA NUIT DE VARENNES A BRUXELLES ?

Il est bon que l'accord UE sur le plan de relance post Covid 19 et sur le budget 2021 /2027 ait pu etre agree. 

Les longues journees et nuits de Bruxelles auront mis la patience de tous a dure epreuve. S'il est bon que le concept de solidarite ait pu etre sauvegarde, il n'en reste pas moins vrai que les fractures apparues resteront durables.

Le clivage entre "economes" et "depensiers" va laisser des traces, bien que le principe innovateur de subvention est maintenu. Que la Hongrie et la Pologne aient pu monnayer leur accord pour une exoneration morale peut etonner. 

Grace aux efforts Macron / Merkel surtout, l'accord a ete obtenu mais a l'arrachee. Charles Michel a ete  Belge. Le compromis l'a emporte sur l'engineering conceptuel. Le Premier Ministre neerlandais (et ses "suiveurs", en premier lieu l'Autriche) a ete deplaisant, quoique intellectuellement redoutable.

En realite, l'accord intervenu ne peut occulter les tensions et les divisions qui demeurent entieres entre un noyau puriste et un plus large consensus qui continue a privilegier une philosophie d'inclusion. A l'avenir, il sera difficile de trouver d'autres accords plus institutionnels, des lors qu'il faudra trancher entre plusieurs approches en vue de doter l'Union Europeenne de nouveaux moyens diplomatiques et militaires.

Pour l'essentiel, le cadre reste donc entier, bien que les membres du camps neerlandais aient desormais un droit de regard sur les subventions. Les relations personnelles entre certains chefs d'etat et de gouvernement ne sortent pas indemnes de ce marathon. 

Angela Merkel sort grandie de cet exercise. A l'heure ou l'Allemagne preside l'UE, les deniers mois du Chancelier sont reellement bismarckiens. On voit mal qui lui succedera . Sans elle, Macron risque de perdre une valeur ajoutee indispensable.

L'Europe peut difficilement se permettre un remake de ce Sommet lugubre si elle veut eviter que Bruxelles soit definitivement associee a Varennes.

CONGRESSMAN JOHN LEWIS RIP

John Lewis, Congressman from Georgia, civil rights icon died. He was as strong in his convictions as he remained courteous during all the ordeals he lived through.

He was a man of rare class in times that often feel as if mutual respect risks extinction.

He was important not only to Americans but to all who are sickened by the wave of racist brutality which has become the poisonous daily supplement. Even in death, the usual Republicans, Trump or Marco Rubio, found in them to offend his memory by mistaken identity or a bland salute from the golf course. Speaking of taste...

Even Belgium could pay tribute, by finally honoring Roger Casement and Edmund Dene Morel, who uncovered the other face of the Congo narrative. Justice is less served by tearing down statues than by setting the record straight.

YESTERDAY'S " FOU D'AMERIQUE " BECAME TODAY'S " FOE ".

Under normal circumstances President Trump should already be considered as a passing aberration, with just a four-month life-span left and no future.

But...never underestimate this chief arsonist. He will resort to every troll, lie and misrepresentation to hold onto an office he stole. He stacked the Department of Justice with his cronies,  to serve only one purpose: himself. His rule by putsch has already bankrupted America's moral fiber and standing.

He has no other international following than the group of murky leaders in Russia, India, Brazil, Eastern Europe. In America he acts mostly through a Mafia-like family concern. The Republicans know too well that his demise would be their death warrant. Their corrupt servility will haunt them in the future.

If he loses in November, one should expect a nightmarish scenario of claims and disputes, supported by his Diane Arbus- like base and by the "coal death squad lobby" that got a free pass from him to kill and pollute. 

The Western Alliance might recover during a Biden presidency. The Democrat might not be the most inspiring candidate but he is a man of honor, a Mensch. Nobody in Trump's entourage comes close to the former vice-president's self control and suave convictions. No doubt the EU, NATO, the WHO, the Paris climate agreement would feel elated after having endured  four years of outrage.  So would America's natural wonders, after the corrupt mishandling by Trump's Neanderthals and "poacher sons". Most of all, America would be able to heal the wounds of racial warfare, discrimination and voting abuses.

Nevertheless it could still get worse during this presidential race, which will become even more merciless and vulgar on Trump's side. Everything is readied for a crusade against fact , truth and science. This president is never about anything other than himself or his close family, which will finally be under scrutiny as soon as the godfather quits. He will be tempted to come up with a September surprise, magnified by Fox News. He will always find a fool, like the Mexican president, who will do anything for a photo-op.

If he were to win (by way of the Electoral College) one may as well sign up for the de facto partition of the country. If he were to lose, one might consider a civil war between the more rural  and the coastal states.

America has now its own version of Maduro!   If Americans  were to re-elect this Manchurian psychopath, they would only confirm all the nasty things Gore Vidal said about them. Yesterday's mepris might be tomorrow's truth!

Belgique : On aura tout vu...

Voila que Jan Jambon, Ministre President Flamand , vient de suggerer que certains portefeuilles federaux soient attribues a deux personalites, representant la Flandre et la Wallonie... comme si ce pays, qui plie deja sous le nombre insupportable de ministres et d'administrations deliquescents, n'en avait pas raz- le-bol .

THE EU DIVIDE

On July 17/18, the 27 EU member states will convene in Brussels for the most arduous of decisions, the coming seven- year budget 2021/2027. Charles Michel, president of the Council will have to find common ground to steer this mega- ambition through the ruff waters of discontent. The numbers are staggering:  1.074 trillion euros budget and 750 billion euros for a recovery fund (grants and loans).

The divisions run deep. The Netherlands are leading a group of countries (Austria, Denmark, Sweden) which oppose the philosophy of solidarity and pursue greater meritocracy under supervision of the fittest. Financial support for the weaker member states would only be considered if a number of prior monitored measures and conditions could be fulfilled.

Germany is in charge of the EU presidency since July 1st. It is  to be expected that Chancellor Merkel will actively consider every effort which to avoid a split and the de facto creation of a secondary tier of states among the 27.

While China and Russia are consolidating their control, the West looks vulnerable. The United States are in an existential free-fall and the EU looks rudderless. The pandemic's range remains unclear but even in the best of scenarios, the long-term consequences are ominous. The Covid-19 is a watershed in history.

Obviously the traditional Keynesian approach will not be enough. What is needed is an engineering toolbox that is geared to multiple, diverse priorities and avoids the suspicion of being sanctimonious. The Thatcher cry "I want my money back" should not be heard in the dire straits the EU finds itself in. One is tempted to sulk over "the good old days" of Jacques  Delors, but nostalgia for the past is no remedy for the future.

The prevailing feeling is one of exhaustion. The lack of an elementary mission statement is becoming a liability. It is also true that many European states look pathetic in their denial of fact. Belgium is a prime example of a state with bankrupt institutions that go against every notion of efficiency, transparency and rationality.  One must hope that the Belgian curse will not end up infecting the workings of Europe as a whole. The ambition of great endeavors should be spared the crudeness of small minds.

'

A PROPOS DU CONGO !

Il n'y a pas de colonialismes heureux.

L'histoire du Congo, de Leopold II a l'independance (et apres), est une enumeration d'exploitation et de vexations qui ont contribue a creer une mythologie du mal.

Le roi des Belges vient d'assumer publiquement ce lourd negatif. Il est remarquable que ces regrets aient rencontre un large appui dans la classe politique et dans la population. Cela constitue un indicateur de maturite existentielle. Il est remarquable qu'en Belgique, pays fracture, en deconstruction permanente, il reste malgre tout une culture d'approbation et d'indignation collectives. 

Reste a voir comment cet acte, en marge de l'anniversaire de l'independance de la Republique Democratique du Congo,  sera suivi de mesures plus tangibles, voir meme de reparations et restitutions agrees par les parties concernees. 

Il faut que la convalescence beneficie de la reflexion et de l'equite. Sans doute le propos du roi Philippe contribuera-t-il a favoriser le grand rapprochement qui n'a que trop attendu. Le president Congolais Felix Tshisekedi sera un interlocuteur exigeant mais juste. Le Congo le merite, la Belgique peut faire mieux.

WHAT WOULD SPENGLER HAVE SAID ABOUT THIS CURRENT WORLD BREAKDOWN ?

The larger picture of our future outlook is overtaken by a myriad of repetitive arguments. The Covid-19 is turning the page of the world as we know it and we are adrift on a Medusa raft, with no captain, and no Gericault to take a snap shot for eternity.

It becomes deceptive to witness or hear a myriad of comments, fake news and trivial pursuits, while the hard consequences of this pandemic are reduced to trivia and statistics. The needed enlightened political scientists or philosophers are almost absent from the discussion. The future of so many, who risk losing their livelihood, becomes ad naseam the fodder of play- back debates. Unfortunately, the total breakdown of macro and micro political institutions remains mostly the taboo in the room. A succession of failures and unconvincing betterments are supposed to act as placebos. Most governments look foolish. Some, in the first place the Trump administration, are immoral.

The future requires major engineering. Individual states will have to review how to balance decentralization, which went too far, with early centralized control. The new challenges (climate, health, hybrid warfare, perverse forms of racism, rise of the ultra-right, environment) need efficient, aggressive therapies early on.  Existing multilateral clusters have become voyeuristic onlookers, unable to arbitrate between opposing self-interests. The re-opening of the borders in the EU is already a sham...

It is time to realize that there is currently no end in view. Even if the pandemic could be brought to a standstill (when?), the social/economic Armageddon is here to stay. A major depression is coming.  Governments still resort to mostly "paternalistic" band-aid policies that fail to cure the disease. Unemployment will increase,  more low end jobs will be hard to come by, social/medical ills will multiply. In Europe the EU lost the battle for hearts and minds. The UN feels irrelevant. NATO's former ambition to create a renewed mission statement is extinct. Trump killed America's role in the world, besides presiding over the Corona killing fields of his own making. 

In this non-heroic stalemate of fools, the world is like a patient in the emergency room. There is no Franklin Delano Roosevelt who could lift the world out of the nightmare. Leaders are too selfish or too inconsequential. At this stage, individual governments had better concentrate on getting out of the slump first. The rise of a nefarious Right might further infect the body mass if  proper treatment is not applied fast. If countries continue to indulge in French-type 4th Republic policies, the arsonists will set the house on fire. After all, there is no de Gaulle in view either. 

Probably we will soon have a new Houellebecq novel which will  yet again set the record of our descent into hell right. It has been said that nothing dates like excess but now we are entering the age of rage, a civil boiling point that will be hard to contain if the proposed remedy does not live up to the frustration. George Floyd was not a perfect man. His murder  redeemed him and made him the torch bearer for an existential awakening.

JEAN-MICHEL BASQUIAT and BLACK LIVES MATTER

It is difficult to imagine a more timely statement for the current mood than Basquiat's" defacement" painting, related to the death of Michael Stewart in 1983 who died from injuries incurred while in police custody in New York City.

Western societies are reeling after the images out of America obliged them to review their own anomalous past and current denials. The soft revisiting of the colonial times, the cautious admittance of past "mistakes" are no longer enough. Cotton balls do not mute the screams.

The blatant and the indirect racial slurs and patterns of behavior (so rampant in the bourgeois West) are totally out of place and time. History will have to be adjusted to facts rather than be an auxiliary to a perverse faulty discursive narrative.

Art was able to make clear statements wherein the horror no longer needed subtitles. Goya, Picasso, Warhol, Gerhard Richter don't need translation or commentary. 

The racial malaise today is related to many causes, be it slavery, discrimination or colonialism. It is difficult to come to terms with evils that were part of the "past normal" before they became the "current scandal". The American founding fathers had slaves. Whole societies were built on discrimination by law. Colonial exploitation was seen as a pedigree.

In Europe, the figures of Cecil Rhodes and Leopold II stand out among their many unsavory peers. No colonial story is a happy one. The past must nevertheless be re-examined and reparations should be considered in a multilateral agreed-upon fashion under UN supervision.

In Belgium the statues of Leopold II are becoming the targets of protest. However it is clear that a few vandals are trying to infiltrate protest and hijack the bona fide grief of the many. This cannot be tolerated and should be dealt with accordingly. The sound of broken glass has a very bad historical echo and protesters should stay safe from perverse associations.

What happens with the overabundant statuary of Leopold II is a matter of common sense--weighted by decency and historical accuracy--not by numbers. 

EEN ANDER BELGIE ?

Er beweegt iets in Belgie. De Covid 19 crisis heeft secundaire gevolgen.

Recente ontwikkelingen  hebben geleid tot een bewustwording van een gevaarlijke bestuursfaling. Het Belgisch model werkt niet. Het multiplicator effect van kieskringen, besturen en Excellenties heeft elke geloofwaardigheid ingeboet. Belgie is internationaal overgekomen als de evenknie van Brussel, inconsequent. Dat eerste minister Sophie Wilmes er toch nog in geslaagd is om de toestand ( zij het op ongelijke manier) te beheersen verdient alle waardering. Zij is Snowwhite , omringd door de 7 absurde dwergen, die de Belgische puzzle moeten voorstellen.

De partijen die nu het confederalime aanbevelen verdedigen een onhoudbare allegorie. Zij bekennen vooral kleur in hun cultuurvoorstel. Zij willen een "allochtoon" Vlaams verhaal  officialiseren dat een eng, reducerend provincialisme bevoordeligd. De "Servische"vleugel van de N-VA (Homans, Demir en Co.) en Vlaams Belang bevinden zich duidelijk in een soort Heimat fantasie, die een  regressief Vlaams epos voorstelt. Voor deze strekking stelt Belgie een belegerd Sarajevo voor. De PS /SP and de Liberale zuil zien het anders...

Een opklaring kan inderdaad komen uit de PS/ SP en MR, die nu een aantal taboes proberen uit de weg te krijgen . Dit houdt niet in dat men terugkeert naar een unitair model. Herfederalisering en deconcentratie a la carte moeten wel kunnen worden doorgelicht, over de hoofden van een aantal dubieuze belangen heen.

In de Morgen spraken Luc Tuymans, Tom Lanoye en Tom Barman over de teleurgang van de beschaving in  het populistich DNA binnen rechts Vlaanderen. De cultuur wordt er gedegradeerd tot folklore met een regionale kleur. Vlaanderen vakantieland begint gevaarlijk de weg op te gaan van een soort familie Trapp saga met xenofobe accenten  ! De zangfeesten worden uit de oude doos gehaald terwijl de wereld kiest voor hip hop en rap.

Het wordt een hete politieke zomer. Belgie moet zijn beleidsformule afslanken. Het status quo bevriest een verstandelijke stagnatie die alleen maar de belangen dient van een rechts  gedachtengoed in Vlaanderen en van een absurd bestuur in Brussel. Vroeger kwam de vernieuwing uit Vlaanderen. Nu komt ze misschien opdagen uit een onverwachte hoek, vooral uit frans sprekend Belgie en uit de SP/ PS/ MR. Het wordt uitkijken naar een Georges Louis Bouchez - Conner Rousseau / Paul Magnette axis... De versleten, falende politici moeten eindelijk  een rationeel alternatief overwegen  ... "it is over " ! Het is tijd voor een sobere, efficiente herschikking !

TRUMP AND THE BIBLE

Moses carried the Ten Commandments. Trump appropriated the Bible. He crossed Lafayette Park in full Fuhrer mood, after  the peaceful protesters had been dispersed, military style.  Surrounded by the usual crowd of the blind and the faithful, he embraced law and order, yet again putting himself, extemporaneously, in the center of the narrative. 

His "silent majority" bluff might work out after all.  His base prefers the flexing of the muscles over the soul searching of a country in shock. If Trump's behavior is nauseating, the weepy reaction of the Democrats is often unconvincing. Black lives deserve a better script.

The reality is that the racial fault-lines in America run deep. The occasional appearance of a healer--Presidents Johnson, Clinton, Obama, Dr. Martin Luther King--or a man with better intentions--George W. Bush--gives some hope, but too much bigotry and prejudice remain standing in the way of upward mobility or social harmony.

This current episode has repercussions worldwide. The "American Dream" is seen as being on life-support, entering the final phase. The bankrupt casino owner of Atlantic City and his mafia entourage have killed the American saga. 

The world at large does not do that well. Other populist Golems proliferate. Europe has problems of its own. The immigration fiasco (with the exception of Germany) is a stain which appears to becoming structural. Nevertheless the original six founders of the EU are trying to come to terms with the situation.  

Europeans are also asking themselves if the alliance with the US is still worth the expense. There is nothing that compels solidarity or empathy with an American administration obsessed with self-aggrandizement and devoid of cultural and historical empathy. The days of the Nixon/Kissinger pax Americana, cynical but sophisticated, are long gone. 

The growing divide between the EU and the US leads to a  dangerous breaking point. An alarm bell should ring when divergence starts to take the form of a snub. Europeans have to come up with an alternative instead. Americans are not the first to have made the wrong choice.  Sobriety recommends that the "we are different" is a better argument than the "we know better". There is a tide in world affairs, after all. Europeans should pause, concentrate on their own priorities and be on hold. In case the American culture war makes a further turn for the worse, a readjustment can still be considered. It is better to be aware of what might be coming  rather than to to be unprepared. 

If Trump & Co were to be re-elected, new drastic unilateral decisions might be expected. I doubt that they would be arriving after a previous early warning courtesy call. They will be rude by habit, pathological by nature. Imperial America was over-extended. Trump's provincial America will be further under-extended. Better be prepared for worse things to come if the current American mindset perdures. The Entente cordiale between the US and Europe might well become a bygone.

IS AMERICA BURNING?

The death of George Floyd underscores yet again the causes for the constant state of rage which prevails in the black conscience. Racial tensions are not new, unfortunately. What makes the current mood different is the insensitivity so blatantly for all to view in this White House. The arsonist - president is yet again full of grudge and short on empathy.

The culture war was easy to unleash but is hard to contain or reverse. One might have hoped that President Obama's  Amazing Grace  might have unlocked once and forever the flux of emotion from the shackles of prejudice and hatred. Trump made sure that his nationalistic agenda got implemented instead. The clock was turned back and America finds itself stuck in a rabbit hole.

Black Americans are more than ever frisked, jailed, profiled, discriminated , since justice has been overtaken by the Trump "collaborators". Today, being black and Republican is more than a mistake, it is a deadly sin.

James Baldwin said that he loved America more than any other country in the world and that, exactly for this reason, he insisted on the right to criticize her perpetually. He would be a very busy man now.

HONG KONG

China's intrusive policies in Hong Kong go against the "one country, two systems" agreed policy. It was to be expected that Beijing would rather respect the (vague) spirit of the agreement than the (binding) letter. For everyone who has lived in Hong Kong it is self-evident that the people want, above all, to protect the rule of law which is the cornerstone for guaranteeing free  business and finance and an entrepreneurial knowhow, unique in Asia.

The Trump administration is supposedly considering ending Hong Kong's special status, arguing that, under the new mainland rules, a separate, privileged "identity", separated from China is obsolete. As usual this White House favors noisy action over deliberation. 

The EU had better separate the moves under consideration from the usual American uneducated bluster.

China wants to reduce the allure and impact of Hong Kong. It copies nevertheless its sophistication in finance and business, while remaining on guard regarding Hong Kong's soft-power. It would be foolish for the EU to follow the American lead, and in doing so bring about an unwelcome end of a success story. If the United States wants to punish China by depriving Hong Kong of its favored status they risk corroborating perversely the Chinese assertion that Hong Kong and the Motherland are one. The EU should never be an accomplice in deconstructing the Basic Law or in undermining the existing fragile autonomy versus China. 

Hong Kong needs a boost, not a black eye. Here, like elsewhere, the Rambos in power in Washington lack finesse. They are stuck in a Darwinian mindset which privileges the stronger part over the better outcome.