TRUMP'S IDEA FOR A PEACE PLAN

Trump came out with his Middle East peace plan. Like most of his endeavors the plan is more about himself first, and money in second place, than about solving the problem. Netanyahu gets what he wants and the Palestinians receive pocket money for giving up on their historical claims. 

True, previous plans were dead on arrival because they sank under the weight of contradictory aims: trying to meet Palestinian grievances and guaranteeing Israel's security. Diplomats who are familiar with previous negotiations know all too well the outline of the former two-states solution. The Trump plan breaks with the past, preempting any more balanced move regarding Jerusalem or the settlements in the West Bank. This latest attempt had ghostwriters who can be found in the ultra-right and evangelical fringes, close to the Trump "dynasty". The historic American move regarding Jerusalem was already premature at the least. So, the current proposal only follows suit. Nevertheless, it shouldn't be condemned out of spite. It must be amended if at all possible, in a more just and comprehensive way. In its current form it suffers many shortcomings, in the first instance, the lack of empathy with Palestinian demands. Anyone who is familiar with the Palestinian psyche knows the part emotion plays in their aspiration. Jarred Kushner might not be the ideal peace- maker for this time after all. Many of his predecessors were equally unsuccessful, unable to translate their superlative know-how into real terms, but they were trusted by both sides.

It is not an accident that the plan was outed during the sordid impeachment trial. Trump needed to deflect and distract from the proceedings in general and from the John Bolton revelations in particular. That America is taking a further turn for the worse is for all to see. Foreign policy is no longer linked to a strategic ambition. It is the projection of this president's ulterior selfish motive. 

The decried Oslo spirit created a luke peace dividend for Israel, Jordan and Egypt. The Mena process safeguarded the strategic oil and natural gas riches from being taken hostage again as was the case during the Carter administration. The Palestinians benefited for awhile from mostly EU support (i.a. harbor, airport) before being thrown under the bus by most of their Arab brethren. Hamas in Gaza equals inviting the arsonist to the brush fire.

Obviously the Middle East situation is one which ads chaos to blame, irrational hatred to legitimate claims for reparation. The former class of Arabists in the West is a dying species. The Arabs themselves play a large responsibility in the stalemate. They just lost interest. The Arab League survives as a relic from a more "romantic" past. The postman doesn't stop there any longer.

In this void money takes over from thought. Hence Trump, MBS, al Sisi and the Gulf talk over the heads of the people directly concerned, with disregard for any form of emotional, more personal investment. I can't imagine what Abbas now must be thinking of his former Abbu Mazen days.  One wonders if any of these players has ever read Edward Said.

MOMA in NYC

The enlarged Museum of Modern Art in NYC is a feast for the eyes and the mind. The space created is a most sophisticated achievement which avoids grand statements and plays on a game of sophisticated seduction. One floats more than one walks, as a result from the appropriate lighting  and the complicity created by the often  surprising dialectic between art works. Mindsets win over chronology. 

Indeed, the works are exposed differently from their earlier predictable anchor. They are called upon to collide and collude, and are given the opportunity to be revisited anew. 

MoMA was always great but was kind of noisy. Now the sound volume is reduced by stealth. Pleasure overcomes tiredness. 

Most visitors are familiar with many works, as they might appear in a coffee-table book. The deja vu, more blase attitude from past experiences is now a thing of the past. There is  unabashed wonder, with here and there a surprise in store, like a "blind date". 

KOBE BRYANT

It is so seldom now that all can come together to remember ONE.

Kobe had many of the qualities we are deprived of today. Obviously he was great in his "game' but he was also elegant, classy...fun, in times wherein it becomes  almost impossible to share a common emotion. The grief for once belongs to all. Thank you, gentleman Kobe !

GEORGES-LOUIS BOUCHEZ : UNE HIRONDELLE NE FAIT PAS LE PRINTEMPS

Georges-Louis Bouchez, informateur, tete de file du Mouvement Reformateur, a mis les pieds dans le plat belge. Il faut l'en feliciter. Cette personnalite, representative de la nouvelle classe politique, ne se sent pas liee par les anciens amalgames qui ont conduit a l'aberration qui est a l'origine de la mal - gouvernance.

Sans doute a-t-il ete trop lapidaire dans son propos, mais le pave dans la mare est le bienvenu. Toutefois il faut se garder des illusions. Revenir en arriere est exclu. La Belgique ne sera plus jamais unitaire. On peut le deplorer mais mieux vaut corriger ou cela reste possible, avec l'accord de tous les "acteurs" belges. Au demeurant la decentralisation mesuree a des avantages.  Il reste assez de matieres qui requierent d'etre re-examinees dans une optique d'efficacite. La revision de la constitution, heritee de l'ancien regime Martens / Dehaene  et Co. est depassee. Elle  date d'un temps ou l'Union Europeenne n'avait pas la masse critique qu'elle a aujourd'hui.  Des nouveaux defis (globalisation, climat, terrorisme etc.) sont apparus qui exigent une nouvelle approche creative en amont.

La crise belge a en tout cas permis a des femmes et hommes politiques d'une nouvelle generation de s'affirmer. Le ridicule n'a plus de preneurs. Allez expliquer que la Belgique a besoin de trois ministres charges de l'environnement ...

La classe politique d'hier ne doit pas etre condamnee pour autant. Elle avait sa propre deontologie et merite le respect des nouveaux venus, a defaut d'approbation. L'heure est venue pour faire l'inventaire de ce qui fonctionne comme de ce qui traine et freine. Les "politiques nouveaux" ont interet a interroger les hommes d'affaire, employeurs, syndicats, intellectuels, a partir d'un exercise de visibilite. Les partis politiques traditionnels ont privilegie une negociation restee trop longtemps incestueuse. Les nominations, les choix, les partages passes sont devenus automatiquement suspects. Le citoyen observe par ailleurs que son vote est presque bancal. Son espace politique est reduit, ce qui conduit a  l'impossibilite de se prononcer sur la gestion de personnalites qui composent le gouvernement federal  et qui echappent au controle d'un suffrage estropie. 

 Si on n'y prend garde il deviendrait possible de subdiviser en amont la gestion du reseau feroviaire, de l'energie ou la politique climatologique. Il est necessaire de mettre fin a un gachis conceptuel.

Il faut des lors feliciter Georges-Louis Bouchez d'avoir sonne l'alarme et esperer que son constat  soit entendu... et ecoute. "Point n'est besoin d'esperer pour entreprendre....."

LE CLAIR OBSCUR BELGE

La Belgique se porte mal. La gouvernance y est absurde. La multiplicite de pouvoirs, de communes et de recours ne profite qu'au clientelisme et a une sourde  corruption.

La derniere peripetie post-electorale renoue avec une autre vacance de pouvoir, qui avait dure un an. Ces crises a repetition pesent sur le moral du pays et sur sa credibilite a l'exterieur. Il est inquietant de voir la classe politique obsedee par son pre carre et oublieuse de la mauvaise image qu'elle donne du pays.

Les informateurs se succedent. Les derniers passeraient egalement inapercus si ce n'est pour le choix vestimentaire de l'un d'eux. Il serait pet etre opportun de trouver une formule de table ronde chargee de faire des propositions sur les questions qui freinent en ce moment la formation d'un gouvernement, sans exclusion. Cet exercise pourrait demarrer des qu'un gouvernement est forme.  Ce decouplement permettrait a un gouvernement d'affronter  les defis poitique, economique et socio-culturels sans autres interferences tandis qu' un groupe de travail, ouvert a tous les partis, serait mandate de faire des propositions de gestion agrees.

Il ne faut surtout pas avoir peur des mots ou des idees d'ou qu'ils viennent. Il faudra aborder les "frontieres" du confederalisme et oser revenir sur des formules qui ne fonctionnent pas.  Cela permettra de reexaminer le portefeuille federal (climat, environnement, commerce exterieur) . Bruxelles devra se debarasser du reflexe Moyen-Ageux et devenir une capitale avec ambition.

En tout cas, des personnalites jeunes sont apparues et l'on peut esperer qu'elles agissent  en dehors des anciennes habitudes perimees . Si l'on n'y prend garde ce vide politique risque de faire le jeu d'un populisme revanchard. La nature a horreur du vide! Il est temps de regarder les modeles allemand ou neerlandais et d'en finir avec des compromis de buvette.  

L'ancien president de la Commission Jean Claude Junker disait que la Belgique etait le seul pays Europeen qui n'est pas fier de lui. Tout est la. Les Flamands en premier lieu qui imaginent que la Flandre autonome etonnera risquent de se retrouver penauds. Le recours aux images d'Epinal, vaguement reactionnaires, est auto-destructeur . La culture a ceci en commun avec la danse qu'elle engage des danseurs de toute nationalite au sein d"une" compagnie...

Ce pays a besoin de retrouver son elan. Il ne suffit pas de recevoir l'Europe, encore faut-il la meriter et mobiliser pour cela un budget culturel a la hauteur d'une nouvelle ambition. Bruxelles fait parent pauvre comparee au Luxembourg et aux Pays Bas. La formule politique en vigueur sacrifie l'ambition creative a l'interet mesquin.

La Belgique en a vu d'autres. Le mauvais vent qui vient des Etats Unis se propage en Europe. Il ne faut pas permettre que la Belgique devienne un nouveau jeton de Domino dans un paysage ou les nuages abondent. Or ce pays n'est pas fait pour les drames. Mieux vaut intervenir sagement que devoir gerer une crise de regime qui risquerait a coup sur d'emporter le patient.

AMERICA : TRIAL AND TRIALS

The impeachment trial of President Trump starts next week. The prologue was marred by numerous incidents which bode ill for the future. The "take over" by the Senate, who will act as the ultimate court, followed, nevertheless rules which might look arcane in these days of overkill by social media.

The Democrats, who are never at their best in more ceremonial occasions, brought the articles of impeachment to the Senate in solemn, awkward procession. The stage is now set for the third impeachment in America's history.

Trump already stole the show by adding a celebrity cast to his formidable defense team. Ken Starr and Alan Dershowitz need no introductions. The latter dealt with O.J. Simpson, Claus von Bulow, Weinstein and Jeffrey Epstein (the company he keeps). The former was President Clinton's nemesis. Both will add to the trial some Vanity Fair cachet. Their supreme skill in distortion is undisputed. One might argue that foregone conclusion makes their involvement more a luxury than a necessity. Such considerations never stopped the president.

Compared to the Democrats who will be professional and dour, the Trump team will play for TV. The president's only compass is the impact he might have on the media. He found in this team the added "entertainment value" he likes. However by making this choice, he confirms yet again, by way of proxies, his reputation as an unsavory, corrupt Mafia character. Other members of his team, Pat A. Cipollone and Jay Sekulow represent an ultra-right, religious agenda, popular with this White House and his "base".

The Republicans studied McLuhan. The Democrats did their homework, finding transgressions, lies and corruption, but fail to get traction. The same goes, by the way, for the presidential race. Democrats are "boring". The shift in political culture favors improvisation, interruption, manipulation. Obama's soliloquies have become in three years a thing of the past, chased away by alternative facts. The pursuit of happiness became the pursuit of self-interest.

The current debates among Democrats are querulous and lack frisson. This white sleeper-cell is more about aging than becoming. Only Buttigieg and Yang are refreshing to a point but they, too, lack the former fire of Clinton or Obama. 

There is nobody in this America who has a strategic view regarding role and ambition for the future. Nixon was bold. G.W. Bush was wrong. Trump mistakes shock for awe. The Democrats are just plain parochial. The stage is set for a moral implosion in the land and for numerous trials worldwide - when magnified, that's where Trump's "America First" is heading.  Head for the lifeboats.

IRAN FUMES / TRUMP TRASHES

Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani had no friends in Europe. His demise is regretted by none. However Trump's impulsive decision to have the leader of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards eliminated raises questions regarding the circumstances of, yet again, another freaky US decision. Europeans tend to be very critical of Tehran's murky actions in the Middle East but their disregard for the American president is becoming equally merciless.

It is less the action that is on trial than the subtitles. This administration (the same goes for the former George W. Bush one) is absolutely non-cognizant of context, culture, history. Somewhere it cannot hide its contempt of "otherness."  The policies look brutal, indifferent to validation and might end up alienating the American military establishment self.

Trump's lack of interest starts at home. He might watch Fox News but will not read a book or briefing papers regarding the various alternatives in front of him. He rarely considers some minimal effort on condition his exhibitionist ego is at stake.

The unraveling of the nuclear deal is more the result of this president's inferiority complex than of a well-thought change of strategy. He wants to get rid of the Obama legacy at any price. It is not a matter of conceptual cherry picking, it is only  Freudian, childish spite. 

The remaining partners of the nuclear deal should try to salvage the "remains" and try to convince Iran to improve on it. Obviously, Iran's bad behavior in the region must be stopped. Tehran is a sophisticated place. The latest moves of the Iranians show a high degree of preparedness behind the bluster.  Europeans and the other parties to the nuclear deal should follow the more classical path to monitor, contain and improve Iranian actions.

America risks to be put in de facto quarantine by its own allies. Trump's blunders will continue anyway. He will probably get four more years, since both his base and the Republicans have become monolithic in outlook and behavior. This liar-in-chief has become the hero of both the Christians and the white supremacists. Their marriage in hell got the White House's blessing and support. 

The US were totally wrong in their understanding of Mosaddegh, they were rude in the management of the Shah's exile, helpless in the hostage crisis and now clueless again. 

Trump's address to the nation today, in full Third Reich-mode, was the usual sum of bombast and lies, with no evidence provided. His swipe at NATO and Obama--"fueling cash to the Ayatollahs"--gave further proof that this man is unworthy of trust. Trash talk doesn't match policy. There is a need for "regime change" in Washington too.

TRUMP GOT SULEIMANI /THE WORLD MIGHT CATCH A FEVER

Trump's fatwa was not a paper tiger. Few outside the Middle East will regret the death of General Kassim Suleimani, not known for charitable actions. In the Arab world some will even rejoice, in private, but most will demand retribution. Suleimani became a mythological figure whose fame became, Nasser-like, larger by the day. He ignited passion and loyalty, while his Iranian superiors remained background figures.

Knowing Trump, one might ask if Washington considered all the possible consequences of a risky decision to go for the jugular. The air attack (on Iraqi territory) follows the same "method" as the Bin Laden precedent. The difference being that while the former embarrassed many Arabs,  the Iranian was seen in undisputed heroic terms.

The American president said that he would never allow another Benghazi to happen on his watch. The incidents around the US Embassy compound in Baghdad were considered by the administration as an affront, an Arab "boxers-like" like siege which could not remain unanswered. As ominous as it might have looked, the manifestation remained largely limited in time and space. Trump 's claim that it was the warming up for an Iranian-backed attack on American lives and interests in the Middle East remains to be proven.  Obviously, the American action will detonate unforeseeable "salvos" everywhere in an Arab world already shaken by contradictory impulses. Other main players such as Russia, China, and the EU (which hardly counts) will not remain silent.  The question is whether this could become an other Sarajevo? This event will again lay bare all the alignments and contradictions between "client states" and their protectors, between surrogates and their handlers in the region. Containment will be difficult.

Knowing Trump, one might wonder if consultation and information preceded:  if foes, allies or leaders of Congress  (other than Senator Lindsay Graham, the president's usual Tupperware Party guy) received a warning; if the gaudy nouveau riche soiree in Mar-a-Lago was a smoke-screen or just the usual gathering of the clueless, the corrupt and the vulgar.

It has been said here many times that Trump would resort to any gimmick to distract from embarrassing scrutiny. This now gives him material to "entertain" his base, which will rejoice in the fury and pay no attention to consequence.

This god-loving administration has killed the climate deal, the Asia-Pacific partnership, the Iran nuclear deal, and the "idea" of America.  Its killer spree continues. This is what one gets if the fools are allowed to act with impunity.