THE OBAMAS

The Obamas...

...The most admired man and woman in the United States...probably worldwide.

One does not need to be perfect but just to be able to communicate his or her beliefs, be it in prose or in verse.

 

2018 : FIN DE PARTIE.

Cette annee a ete l'annee de toutes les mediocrites, partout. Si les Etats-Unis ont emporte la palme d'or, plusieurs etaient en lice pour le prix du meilleur realisateur.

C'est bien entendu le spectacle Trump qui a ete retenu a l'unanimite. Le jury a voulu couronner un cycle ininterrompu de mensonges, de bluff et de vulgarite. Dans l'autre categorie, l'Union Europeenne s'est imposee par sa derive a droite, son divorce a l'anglaise et son humeur depressive, depuis que la Grande Bretagne et les Etats-Unis lui ont fait faux bond.

L'anne prochaine risque d'etre pire,  l'annee de tous les dangers.

- Quelqu'en soient les formules  finalement retenues, Brexit se passera mal. Les interrogations politiques et economiques demeurent a ce jour entieres. Par ailleurs il ne faut pas sous-estimer le dommage existentiel qui rique de fragiliser le flegme britannique .

-La nouvelle tangente Italienne est inquietante. La voie romaine qui relie desormais la droite de Rome aux partis reactionnaires de la Mittel Europa des Habsbourg  scinde l'Union Europeene en deux. Les recents developpements en Bosnie et au Kosovo ne presagent rien de bon, d'autant plus que l'Amerique de Trump ne s'y interesse plus.

-Poutine peut avancer ses pions ou il veut, quand il veut, des lors qu'il ne rencontre pas ou peu de resistance. L'Ukraine est aux urgences. Le neo-isolationisme de l'administration americaine et son antipathie envers tout modele multilateral contraignant permettent a la Russie de parachever sa "normalisation" en Europe, fut-ce au prix des engagements souscrits dans l'acte final de l'exercise d'Helsinki.

-L'Amerique entre en periode pre-electorale, ce qui rendra Trump plus agressif , soucieux de menager une base electorale composee surtout d'archi-conservateurs ou prevalent les "blue collars" non universitaires. Deja le president a donne un coup d'accelerateur a tout ce qui constitue un agenda : anti immigration, anti engagement international,  pour plaire a cette base, quitte a s'aliener les "elites" et les "allies".

- En Asie, l'Inde a du mal a composer entre une Chine qui avance et les Etats-Unis qui reculent. L'Australie et le Japon n'attendent plus longtemps pour reaffirmer des interets communs qui requierent des ajustements militaires et economiques sans les Etats-Unis.

- L'Afrique sub-Saharienne et, en moindre mesure, l'Amerique Latine sont devenues des protectorats chinois mais l'endettement cosecutif, en priorite de plusieurs pays africains, risque de porter ombrage a l'image "paternaliste" de Pekin.

-Le Moyen Orient est diplomatiquement bancal pour les Etats-Unis. Trump a fini par s'aliener a peu pres tout le monde et semble vouloir quitter la partie ou du moins passer le temoin au premier preneur venu.

En 2019 l'Europe va bouder. L'Amerique au contraire va remuer de plus belle, non par ambition conceptuelle, mais pour distraire, detourner, voir meme divertir. La base electorale de Trump ne lui demande pas de jouer a l'homme d'etat informe. Au demeurant le president est "illetre". Son electorat attend de lui qu'il invective, exagere et attaque. C'est un repertoire dans lequel il excelle et a ce jour aucun Democrate n'arrive a l'imiter. Si les Democrates veulent gagner les presidentielles en 2020, il faudra encore trouver un candidat absolument oppose a Trump dans le "look", le ton et l'agression intelligente, mais tout aussi egal a lui dans la redoutable performance d'acteur. Qu'un pays occidental soit devenu  le fief dune famille "mafieuse" laisse reveur. Il est certain que les Democrates n'hesiteront pas a voir de plus pres ce que les Republicains ont essaye d'etouffer quand ils etaient majoritaires dans la Chambre jusqu'en 2019.

Pour revenir a L'Europe. Les elections au parlement europeen et une nouvelle Commission (enfin) peuvent contribuer a revaloriser un projet europeen en mal d'idees. Faisons un reve (merci Sacha Guitry).

TRUMP TWEETS , THE BASE DIRECTS

Washington is a pretty blasé place but Trump's latest salto mortales have shaken even the more cynical observers. Unilaterally, out of the blue, he decided to withdraw American forces from Syria. He also ordered to halve the size of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. The Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis resigned in protest, not without having made sure that his resignation letter was printed in 50 copies for all to see. This letter is already becoming his Emile Zola-like J'accuse against this president's unbound policies.

The president has the right to change course. The dispute is about something more important, about consultation, professionalism and warning of allies. Besides, in the Syrian case there is the dereliction of the Kurds who are left at the mercy of Turkey's genocidal intentions. The rumor goes that Trump consulted Erdogan. Allies were ignored, as usual. Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Russia cannot believe their ears...Putin was the first to congratulate the Manchurian president on his decision!

The Republicans remain tone-deaf. Individually some express disbelief, but when pushed into their usual lemmings formation, they salute. Trump and the GOP look as if both parties suffer from a reciprocal Stockholm Syndrome. Anyway the real force comes from Trump's 30% base of hard-core individuals, pro-life but at the same time gun fanatics, who are to America what the yellow vests are to France. The difference being that while they are in the streets there, they dictate policies here. Their influence is growing and obliges Trump to overreact, be it with the Fed, the Pentagon or State. The United States finds itself, for two years, in a permanent class, gender, racial, geographical, sociological civil war. Trump acts in all this like a chaos addict.

The Foreign Affairs issue of Jan./Feb. 2019 raises the issue of who will run the world. The challenge is discussed in ways that are too unilateral. It makes no sense to launch a product without prior market research. Previously, even during the George W. Bush Iraq historical, fatal mistake, people in the world still believed that redemption was possible. Obama gave the Pax Americana another (uneven) chance. Trump buried it . It does not make any difference if X rather than Y pretends running the world if there are no takers. The United States is losing its soft-power. China has more imitators now than the US and Putin's Moscow is becoming trendy. The movers and shakers in the world start to snub the Trump way. Europeans are gone, Asians return to their own model, Africans are pragmatic. The core allies like Australia, Canada or the UK will think twice before embarking again with this unprincipled president.

Trump is probably an isolationist both in his public and private persona, impervious to charm, manners, counsel, but addicted to praise and glitter. He has no others working for him but mirrors of his sublimated insecurities. If not re-elected, the damage done might still be repaired but this will be an uphill battle given that he sold out to his base. If he were to continue after 2020 the downfall risks to be steep. He will in any case continue to sabotage a global order for which he does not have any affinity and to disinvest in the virtues of compassion and creativity that made America the envy of the world. Now we may enter an uncertainty which might well affect all sectors, the economy and the rule of law in the first place.

EU VERSUS TRUMP : IDEAS VERSUS PIQUE

In less than one week Mike Pompeo, American Secretary of State,  and Gordon Sondland, hotelier and Trump's ambassador to the EU have made anti- European tirades. They betrayed both unfamiliarity and prejudice. Not that all is well with the EU, but criticism rooted in glee and class welfare might well "boomerang". The demise of civilized language from this White House is becoming the hallmark of this administration. This goes for the form but the content is equally unsophisticated, a horizontal Goya-like firing squad which shoots at all things non-transactional...values, ideas, commitments. Allies are the favorite target. Partners-in-crime get a free pass.

Yes, the EU does not do well. It has become unloved. It missed the boat when there was still time to reconsider its workings and come up with a more enlightened projection which might have woken up a wavering attention. Brexit on one side and the populist tsunami on the other have made for an encircling psychoses which is a godsend for Putin, and another alibi for Trump to downgrade the US footprint in Atlantic affairs. In 2019 EU Parliament elections and a new Commission might bring some form of rejuvenation, but innovative thinking is an uphill battle.

Paradoxically, the banalization of danger has made Europe complacent and lazy. The Berlin Wall cemented the will to resist and the need to defend alliances rooted in shared ideas. The Gulag was East, the opportunities were West. After the wall, and a transition marked by a far too paternalistic Western attitude, the will to "be" was muted in a desire to "shop". The example of Germany is illuminating. Former East Germany was integrated with various degrees of success but the disappearance of the Berlin Wall lowered both acuteness in Europe and a moral/strategic imperative in America. The Iron Curtain helped as much as it inflamed. Now everything is becoming equalized. Ukraine is just a lump of sugar diluted in a too hot tea cup. Nobody will lift a finger if...

Europe can do without drama for sure. It nevertheless needs to "face the music". Self-esteem is relevance's twin. Given that Trump killed respect for the sake of some Pharisean deals, the Europeans should start to consider the outline and the broad priorities of a second generation of Atlantic thought. This has to be done with a return of the United States and their future input in mind. The EU council should have a large mandate to come up with a European pillar concept by 2020.

Brexit is a serious European divorce, given that after the United Kingdom became a full partner in the Common Market on January 1, 1973, a referendum was won by two-to-one in favor. It is important not to allow hard feelings and resentment to take over. Too many pieces in the European puzzle are in jeopardy. Reason, plus European self-interest, should prevail. If short-term anti-intellectual sound bites strive in today's Washington, Brussels should remain open to more creative and generous terms. The voters have to come back if the EU institutions want to fulfill their mandate. The EU should get rid of the Spitzenkandidat curse and become again as in Hallstein's days a concert of excellence rather than a depository for political "have beens". Likewise, the Commission should be smaller, albeit with a Security Council rotation mechanism.

The EU should not fall into Trump's paranoid brutal reactive format. Sometimes  a touch of moral class is warranted even as it might be felt as a snub. If there is such a price to pay for being ambitious and if the Pompeo/Bolton/Navarro/ Soudland quatuor continues to play in Washington it is advisable to skip the concert for now.

BRUXELLES : GOUVERNEMENT PERDU / MUSEE RETROUVE.

La derniere crise gouvernementale en Belgique semble a premiere vue anodine, un accident de parcours qui mobilise a peine les medias.

Et pourtant, les ambiguities dangereuses sont nombreuses. Il est difficile de trancher si le Premier Ministre a ete machiavelique ou non, si les Nationalistes Flamands ont orchestre leur depart ou s'ils y ont ete obliges. En tout cas cette "crisette" a definitivement marginalise le role que jouait la fonction royale dans le passe. La redistribution rapide des portefeuilles est aussi un indicateur de l'absence de creativite et de la carence d'interet pour la fonction publique.

L'episode rique de rallumer la tendance "populiste"au sein des Nationalistes Flamands , qui ont ete des partenaires gouvernementaux corrects. Liberes de cette solidarite ils risquent de se retrouver avec un noyau dur qui trouve que la page de normalisation (relative) doit etre tournee. Le Premier Ministre risque de se retrouver en mal de "grand final" avant les elections legislatives de 2019. Garder le cap sans majorite parlementaire est un exercice a haut risque. Son chemin de Marrakech ressemble deja a un decathlon.

Le coup de grippe belge est encore symptomatique du malaise Europeen. Le mecontentement diffus qui avance partout est d'autant plus difficile a maitriser qu'il n'a d'autre identite qu'un spleen en mal d'un acte d'accusation precis. Les gilets jaunes ne sont pas un movement. Ils sont une Jacquerie a pretention nihiliste. Il devient des lors difficile de trouver une riposte a an "rien" demolisseur.

En Belgique le surreel est toujours present. Voila qu'au milieu de cette crise, le musee d'art africain, renove, a ouvert ses portes. L'histoire et la personnalite de Leopold II sont connues. Au demeurant il n'y a pas de colonialime heureux. Apres que le president Macron a plaide pour une restitution intelligente du patrimoine artistique africain spolie, les grandes collections partout dans le monde sont interpellees. Deja la Republique Democratique du Congo frappe a la porte du magnifique musee, oeuvre de Girault ( architecte du Grand palais). L'appel ne pourra etre ignore et il faudra trouver une reponse globale, valable erga omnes. Le contentieux est d'autant plus delicat qu'il risque ici aussi d'activer et de rallumer des recours "populistes" qui peuvent bouleverser la recherche, l'excellence et les equilibres qui ont autant besoin d'etre actualises que d'etre encourages.

ABOUT A FUNERAL

President George H.W. Bush's funeral was dignified. It felt also as much about him as it was about an American "story", lost for now. All the presidents present seemed aware of this "double" requiem. The difference being that the current president was "in attendance", while the others were "participants". The eulogies coming out of this administration felt like so many unwelcome intrusions. History is a tragedy and not a morality tale (Christopher Hitchens).

The former president was not a natural born leader, neither was he without failures. He was more a man who was able to learn from his mistakes and never blame others for having erred. His belief in the moral imperative in American leadership convinced the skeptics and the losers.  He was gracious in winning and reached out rather than humiliating. In all this he was the opposite of the current squatter in the White House. It was equally remarkable that the people and friends around him represented the best in America. Trump confronts us daily with the worst.

The truce in the vitriol will be short-lived as was the reluctant handshake between President Obama and his nemesis. Unlike George H.W. Bush's heart, the twitter will never stop as long as Trump is preoccupied with spewing his fake news. At least America received a pause, a short period of mourning and respite. One has to wonder what the Millennials might have been thinking, watching this procession of old men and women talking in a vocabulary which is out of place about issues that are out of value. There was some King Lear feeling under the majestic vaults of Washington Cathedral, the usurper and the mourners looked equally old and dispirited.

PRESIDENT GEORGE H.W. BUSH...The way they were.

President George H.W. Bush was by excellence and example a gentleman and a type of American better books are written about. His life reads like a manual on manners, decency and professionalism. For the time being his biography can only exist in the past tense, regrettably. The deteriorated vocabulary of today's Washington cannot reach that high. It should retreat in shame. Perhaps his death might oblige Americans to revisit the current wrong choices made in their name. Being reminded the way the former president was, they might repent for the present aberrations they have failed to correct, until now.