SUPREME COURT... TRUMP-MADE

Some thought that the former president would slowly become another unpleasant episode of America's past. Wrong! He is more alive than ever. Parts of the country have been overtaken by his "cult". Part of the institutions have been hijacked by proxies who only have him to thank for the jobs they hold.
Now his nominees in the Supreme Court have reversed "Roe v. Wade". They stole women's right to be the master of their own destiny, making Margaret Atwood's novel "The Handmaid's tale"  prescient. These angry judges who make for the Panzer division of the Court will not stop there. Other issues such as birth control, gay marriage are waiting for the scaffold. By refusing creationism, the conservative judges will deprive America of the progress achieved, the moral stature won and the social consensus obtained. Only guns will have a "free for all."

Trump sees in this "God's will."  The Vatican followed suit, chosing absurd doctrine over compassion, which is supposely a Christian "speciality''. Coming from Trump, who has no clue about God (and the rest), nothing surprises anybody anymore. Coming from the church, some will feel entitled to think that the time for its exit has definitively arrived. 

Parts of the fly-over American states applaud, while the enlightened ones feels betrayed. America appears as haven given up ethical leadership at a most unwelcome time:  when a world in tatters looks for an anchor. At the end of the day this political Untergang, created by Republicans, only serves the narrative of rogue others.

America remains a pole for creativity in all fields, but even the bravest start to suffer fatigue when the system (not ideal from the start) is derailed by politics, corruption and gerrymandering. Le pays réel n'est plus le pays légal. The Biden administration, which has to deal with all problems under the sun, looks sometimes Carter-like. The President makes the right analysis but in a time where you can no longer convince if you are not entertaining, he faces a hopeless predicament. 

So the Supreme Court, in its current form, could undermine a great historical ambition with impunity and with the applause of the intellectually deficient and the January 6 zealots.  America has gotten  used to reeling, there is more to come.

MAGRITTE AVAIT RAISON

 .....mais on le regarde trop et on ne le lit pas assez.

JEAN LOUIS TRINTIGNANT

Jean Louis Trintignant a été l'un des derniers grands d'un cinema français désormais agonisant. La morgue du grand cinema international est pleine.

Certes Cannes a démontré que les fims qu'on allait voir à  la Pagode à Paris résistent mais c'est Marvel qui est désormais l'occupant. Meme Godzilla était plus fréquentable.

Trintignant représentait la culture et la séduction. Avec d'autres réalisateurs, actrices et acteurs il était le parfait représentant d'une sensibilité aujourd'hui en péril . Les comparaisons sont pénibles. Les engouements évoluent, dommage. Jean Louis a rejoint Moliere. L'année leur appartient.

PATRICE LUMUMBA

Finally the shroud has been lifted. Alexander De Croo, Belgium's Prime Minister, may not have found the ghosts in the tragic end of Congo's first prime minister but he certainly found the words for Belgium's shame.

Many circumstantial facts still need to be revealed but truth can be a silent partner until it chooses to make its move. It will at the end.

Now Belgium might have atoned for Leopold II's colonial genocide. More remains to be done to try to alleviate the pain that outlived yesterday's thrones, uniforms and staged repentance.

Some who had met the young Lumumba in their university days easily remember his regal demeanor and his words which burned holes in the official codex.

Both he and Sir Roger Casement, the great demystifyer of Leopold II, deserve a dignified place of remembrance in Brussels.  Why not near the Cambre abbey, where embarrassing statues abound and reflection could come spontaneously?

THE FRENCH MIRACLE MAN DIMINISHED

The result of the French elections for Parliament is disappointing for President Macron. The Left and also the Right won a considerable amount of votes, while he lost the needed absolute majority. All this doesn't bode well for his ambitious agenda. Neither will it help him retaining his international aura. Like other democracies in the West, France will have to deal now with the sabotage coming from the inside.

Europe should worry because existing alliances and partnerships will come under pressure both from the French Left and the Right. Oligopoly situations might lead to a perverse blockade of reform and innovation. The ideas of LePen are nefarious. The agenda of Mélenchon is nihilistic. Europe, the Markets and the Atlantic world need a creative operator like Macron to stem opportunistic fallacies that might well derail what is left of enlightened governance.

France joins, for now, Germany and the United States "in search of lost time."  Tragically this is not about a novel but about the structural component of the life as we knew it, or as we wish for. The cracks in the rule of law and social justice could multiply. Events in Eastern Europe and the coming winter plague could exacerbate climate change together with a major food and markets/energy crisis. The West has no leader who can inspire as Macron does. Unlike President Biden, he can go everywhere without awakening the ghost of Canossa. The opposition of Left and Right will stop at nothing to curtail his initiatives.

France remains a strong country, mine de rien. The French are quick to realize where and when they erred. Still it has to be hoped that they spare themselves the periodic catastrophic outburst they were used to. The more so, that Macron is not deGaulle, who preferred the shore of Ireland rather than dealing with the disputable choice of his countrymen.  Macron would not.

LES ROIS MAGES A KIEV

Le spectacle qu'offraient les trois dirigeants de l'Union Europeenne en Ukraine rappelait le fameux tableau de Bruegel ¨La parabole des aveugles" au Musée de Capodimote. Mème Macron semblait en manque d'inspiration.

Cette scène est une pénible démonstration de l'état des lieux en Europe. Il est sans doute normal que l'accumulation de problèmes immédiats pèse sur une réflexion plus sohistiquée sur l'avenir. Il est clair que personne n'a de propositions cohérentes et que les questions fondamentales - géo-politique, militaire, économique, sécurité alimentaire, reconstruction de l'Ukraine, entre autres - restent sans réponse.

Voltaire dit "quel livre immense on composerait de tous les faits qu'on a crus, et dont il fallait douter". Aujourd'hui l'Occident est orphelin de certitudes. Les anciens scénaristes du destin-  la Commission, l'OTAN, les Etats-Unis, n'arrivent plus à rassurer. L'autre camps est pris en otage par des avatars dont il reste difficile à partager le bluff du danger réel qu'ils représentent. En tout cas ils sont assez malins pour ne pas s'exprimer tout haut sur ce qu'ils envisagent tout bas.

L'Occident est traversé par une crise d'identité généralisée. Le malaise règne tant à Washinton qu'à Bruxelles. Poutine vient de déclarer que le monde unipolaire n'est plus. Cela fait longtemps que le cortège funèbre est parti. La différence étant que le régime Poutine a cessé de feindre et que les Etats Unis sont trop désunis et affaiblis de l'intérieur pour réclamer leur  primauté. Au demeurant, le monde attend les élections présidentielles aux Etats Unis en 2024, ce qui affaiblit d'ici là les meilleures intentions du président Biden, déjà considéré comme passager.

L'Occident cherche à gagner du temps. L'immédiat recule devant l'expédient. Toutes les mesures et décisions envisagées ont soit un calendrier, soit se trouvent en suspen  s. Il semble parfois que le fameux conmpromis à la Belge ait contaminé le Berlaymont, voir mème l'OTAN. Poutine observe. En attendant, Zelensky peut relire Shakespare en companie de Boris Johnson, fait sur mesure pour jouer Iago.

Au temps du drame de la Bosnie, Sarajevo devint la conscience du monde. Susan Sontag ou Bernard Henri Levy, entre autres, mettaient les consciences en état d'alerte permanent. En Ukraine, ce ne sont pas les vidéos et visites répétées de leaders occidentaux, choqués,  mal à l'aise qui vont créer la différence. Le choc thérapeutique manque. La répétition des images en direct de l'horreur infligée à l'innocent ne rapporte plus la dividende. Ce drame risque de devenir un quotidien auquel on s'habitue. Les Conseils Européens  continueront à se réunir dans la salle de Conseil de l'UE, absurde, genre décor de cirque hallucinant,...il est vrai que l'on se trouve à Bruxelles.

AMERICA JUNE 2022

The United States are still (but to a lesser degree) the magnifying glass of the world. With globalization lying on its deathbed in Davos, world events and trends tend to dissolve. The American way is no longer the sole highway. Everywhere it becomes an uphill battle to rally others around the American leadership. In Latin America, S.E. Asia, Africa or even Europe, the spontaneous sympathy and envy for all things American are gone. 

President Biden should muster more respect and goodwill than he is receiving at present. He tiptoes, Fred Astaire-like, from issue to problem, from crisis to depression and remains, nevertheless, able to retain composure and calm. His character, personal history and political experience have given him an almost stoic demeanor. It is doubtful that this will work to his advantage at the end.

The world-wide tremors felt in the economy will soon hit the panic trespass. People will suffer, and even more perversely rogue players will try to take advantage of a playfield were all bets can avoid penalty. Democracies are especially vulnerable. The mass shooting epidemic and the hearings about the Capitol riot in Washington, DC, coming above a dysfunctional governance, only lay bare the catastrophic state of affairs in the United States. The situation in Europe is equally troublesome since many leaders are inept or unfit. Inflation and costly energy make for an upcoming perfect storm.

China and Russia are one-person states that are free to do, lie, disguise, fake, invade whenever and wherever it serves personal power and purpose. History might bore the younger generation but if it doesn't grasp what is happening now, it might wake up to a very different tune. European leaders should beware of the Munich shadow that looms already too large over their heads. Boris Johnson believes that talking about Churchill will make him the former's equal. Seldom was Downing Street the burrow for so large a fool. Unfortunately the French and German presidents seem to be losing their mojo for now.

Ukraine is the final straw in the sad Spengler saga. Here we have the clear undisputed case of a country bombed back into a graveyard. Some send calibrated weaponry which shouldn't unduly derange the aggressor. Some dream up negotiation formulae that serve mostly egos (Normandy formula), selfish interests (Turkey), or photo ops. The reality is that everybody knows how this will end and that Putin will stop at nothing but "a clear win", whatever the cost. Anyway in Russia the calculus is spooked, like everything else. Ukraine, or what will be left of it, will be the West's and mostly Europe's shame.

America is too self-obsessed with the mid-term elections in November and the presidential heure de vérité in 2024. Democracy there is no longer for granted. There is an ugly, conservative wave that has been awakened by Trump and that has staying power for the time-being. The Republicans have not so much brain as ear-wax (Shakespeare). Indeed the upcoming winter will be the season of discontent for too many.

Recommended reading : Churchill (again) on the Russians, during the Yalta conference.