Gaston Van Duyse-Adam: book,comments
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
Saturday, November 30, 2024
TOMORROW'S CURSE ?
There is a lot of talk with regard to Trump's recent electoral victory. It has been called lots of superlatives, while the balance of power has hardly changed. America remains mostly a house divided. What has happened is that the MAGA's will be in full control of all the branches of government until the midterms, two years from now. There still remain some Republican dinosaurs who might make the MAGA coup not a done deal.
Until the inauguration in January a lot can happen. Musk's new DOGE machine is ready for the onslaught. The various, often surreal nominations for the cabinet appear to be more about kissing the ring than about outlining policies.
How this freak show is being considered in Moscow or Beijing is a sobering consideration. That the same envoy will deal with Russia and Ukraine should scare any informed observer of international affairs. Suffice to go back to the "good days" of the Cold War and imagine that the Soviet Union and Finland were supervised under the same US umbrella. This would have been considered, rightly so, as a tacit approval of Finlandization...the Trump administration is already suspect of making deals with Russia, on the back of Ukraine or NATO. Everything has to be done to support Ukraine's independence and choice of destiny. One had better be beware of giving Putin an inch because his aim is to break up a world order that collides with his interests. Unfortunately, while Trump is transactional and unreliable, the West is weak, devoid of leaders and lacking self- confidence and pride.
The foreseeable negative trend in America thrives partially because of European indecision. The military, social and economic disarray in the EU is accelerating because of a failing overall leadership. Germany is on hold, France becomes a Rubik cube with no end in sight. Here and there the populists raise their heads and fists. The undercurrent of anti-Semitism is becoming really alarming. The Commission in Brussels is unloved and too large for its own credibility. The EU Council cannot come to terms with Viktor Orbàn & Co. The world is packed with dead and ailing bodies, left after the slaughter inflicted by the unanimity curse. The Security Council of the UN is a corpse. The mortuary is making room for the EU.
The overall situation could be less dramatic if instead of indulgence in self-fulfilling prophecies, people were dialing 911 for a start.
The next months will be interesting. They might also be sobering. The dollar will rule, also in Moscow. With friends as these, who needs (more) enemies?
AU REVOIR MADAME LABHIB
Exit Lahbib , entre Bernard Quintin comme Ministre des Affaires Etrangères en Belgique.
Le président du MR annonce, le Premier Ministre Alexander De Croo encaisse. Ainsi fonctionne la particracie en Belgique.
A priori le nouveau titulaire a, contrairement à Madame Labhib, un beau palmares. Ce n'est donc pas la personnalité qui dérange, c'est une nouvelle fois un système politique bancal qui indispose.
La Belgique est devenue l'otage de personnalités qui peuvent trop souvent opérer en dehors de tout contrôle parlementaire.
Les ombres chinoises dictent la politique. Si les exécutants apparaissent souvent débiles c'est que leur profil n'est devenu qu'un accessoire pour leurs mandataires .
D'aucuns se posent la question de deviner si Bart De Wever, prochain Premier Ministre, choisira le modèle Gaston Eyskens ou Jean Luc Dehaene, plutôt que d'être le dindon de la farce...de toute façon Thanksgiving c'était hier. Les parieurs préfèrent la premiere option, celà promet du plaisir.
Monday, November 25, 2024
THANKSGIVING 2024
Oscar Wilde suggested that there are only two tragedies in life. One being not getting what one wants and the other being getting it. This could as well be the perfect epitaph for today's America. Many are shell-, or better, Trump-shocked. The mood gets worse with each designation that comes out of Mar-a-Lago's gaudy theater of the absurd. The incoming administration covers an arc that goes from the pathetic (Marco Rubio) to the demonic (Sebastian Gorka).
America is a democracy and Trump's victory is absolute. He gave the forgotten males an umbrella and promised to keep them safe from the godless, leftist, woke intellectuals who rule the coasts. This is surprising since the US economy is the envy of the world. It also proves Thomas Piketty right when he argues that capital return is stronger than the rate of economical growth. Obviously the voters didn't buy the assertion that the trading room is a weapon of financial destruction of the common man.
It is far too early to predict the outcome of this "coup". The awakened MAGA beast might be hard to get back into the cage of failed experiments. Unleashed it might create a havoc too few saw coming.
This Thanksgiving feels more absurd than ever. The parade in Manhattan will be at the same time festive in a Norman Rockwell way and somewhat frightening in a mad Disney way. Beverly Hills will look its usual empty, devoid of people and "normal "air to breathe. Some Americans feel solace in their current gloomy bestsellers, or better in Cabo where the brown people stay rather than emigrate.
The world will have to adjust to the uncomfortable seating arrangement during the long, four-year flight. The Asians will adjust, the Africans of sub-Sahara don't count but for some raw materials, the Middle East will skip the journey all together and the Europeans will suffer all Angsts in their cramped seats. The EU has already an economy on life-support and a defense out of a Plautus satire...ça promet.
John Updike said that America is a vast conspiracy to make one happy. Unfortunately the luxuries don't make up for the necessities.
Thursday, November 21, 2024
"VLAAMSE" TOETSEN
Met Demir en Weyts zijn "inheemse" toetsen "in". Aan het licht van zoveel domme uitspraken wordt het normaal dat velen zich de vraag stellen wat de dwergregeringen in Belgie nog voorstellen.
Overal in de E.U. staan de signalen op rood. De wereld, in de eerste plaats de V.S., wordt onvoorspelbaar. Men staat zker niet te wachten op Belgie, dat het zelf niet meer haalt in een voetnota in The Economist of in de versleten Belgenmoppen, die vroeger nog een publiek vonden in Frankrijk of Nederland. De lachspieren werden ingeruild voor medeleven.
Bart De Wever verdient respect om toch nog te proberen een regering te vormen die misschien nog kans maakt orde te her- stellen in begroting, defensie, klimaat, buitenlandse zaken, kultuur, gezondheiszorg, die nu in de spoedafdeling zijn ondergebracht.
Ondertussen praat de "Vlaamse regering" verder voor eigen aanhang (die er nog is) , in de vogelkooi die dienst doet als "Vlaams" parlement. De Walen doen het beter of tenmiste discreter in Namen.
Spaak, Harmel, Dehaene zouden met ongeloof dit triest spektakel bekijken en helaas moeten incasseren dat Belgie in de E.U.voortaan niet langer meetelt. Onze ministers worden nog "ondergaan" maarer wordt niet meer naar geluisterd. Het klinkt onrechtvaardig, o.m. voor Alexander De Croo, maar als je telkens weer voor een Europese beslissing nog X aantal akoorden moet afdwingen binnenlands, gebeurt dat op de rug van de geloofwaardigheid.
Dit beroert de "dwaallichten" in de Belgische regios niet. Dat het land ondertussen verkommert laat ze koud. Het helpt wel de verkoop van "The ugliest houses in Belgium", een internationale bestseller. De straten komen nog aan beurt voor een vervolg in de serie.
Blijft de Opera....De Munt werd terecht onderscheiden als de meest creatieve Bühne in Europa...Het ontbreken aan "Vlaamse toetsen" zal waarschijnlijk in Genk en elders kwaad bloed zetten, met de gevolgen vandien.
Leopold II sprak over "petit pays, petites gens", nu zou hij het meervoud moeten gebruiken..."petits pays", inderdaad.
Monday, November 18, 2024
BERLIN CALLS MOSCOW
Whenever the Germans and the Russians are talking, jitters appear. Brest-Litovsk, Rapallo, the non-aggression pact with Russia, the Ostpolitik created, an unfortunately, rightly proven, malaise in Europe. The German Chancellor's calling Putin last week raises again the usual questions. Olaf Scholz heads a dying coalition inside and is almost a non persona outside. Besides breaking ranks with the EU and NATO, he leaves Kiev with unanswered questions. That Biden allowed Ukraine to use long- range missiles against Russia right now, will be seen by many as non-coincidental.
Obviously, sooner rather than later, one will have to talk to Moscow. Since this will be more than just small talk, this will require coordination with, and agreement of all. One should realize that the change of administration in Washington might create chaos and lead to a reversal of fortunes. Already Europeans know that the lovefest with America is a thing of the past. They should stay clear of clumsy initiatives they can hardly afford in this political international no man's land.
The United States is still a democracy until January. What might come later looks ominous, given President Trump's well-known deficits, both in history and personal chemistry. He despises what he perceives as Western European's condescending attitude. He likes A.I. because it doesn't talk back.
Europeans should be alarmed and better pay their NATO contribution in full, before getting rightfully humiliated. Macron's ideas regarding a degree of EU's strategic autonomy are correct, but coming from the French they become almost fatally suspect...
At least the French receive the benefit of the doubt. Since Helmut Kohl, the Germans have lost a lot of their luster. Angela Merkel's descent into purgatory is unfair, compared to Margaret Thatcher's continuous adulation.
While leaders with global reach appear in the Middle East and Asia, they have become an endangered species in America and Europe. They fought AIDS and COVID successfully but the spread of populism keeps growing.
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
L 'AMERIQUE DESABUSEE
Le monde va mal. Il craque de partout. On enregistre (à peine) l'accident et on oublie les victimes.
L'Ukraine est une blessure permanente. Le Soudan est une amnésie. Ailleurs, en premier lieu au Proche-Orient, en Europe et en Asie, les certitudes se fragilisent. La guerre froide d'hier est devenue "fable" ou BD.
Arrive par dessus ce triste bilan ,Trump. Il fait beaucoup parler de lui, ce qui l'enchante. Celà est une excellente raison pour en parler moins, ce qui l'enrage. Déjà il rassemble son entourage, prévisible, et par conséquent inquiétant. Marco Rubio, à qui il réservait le sobriquer de "little Marco", deviendrait le Secrétaire d'Etat...On croit rêver. De toute façon les MAGA qui "débarquent" sont toutes et tous du mème aloi... opportunistes.
Le camps adverse a besoin de sang froid et de recul . La bête doit être ignorée avant d'être achevée.
La victoire de Trump contraste avec la descente aux enfers de plusieurs leaders Européens. Les mèmes causes ont conduit à des résultats opposés dès deux cotés de l'Atlantique. Néanmoins on tend à exagérément dramatiser, comme si le système solaire était à tout jamais dérèglé. Il n'en est rien. Les péripéties politiques portent en elles le germe d'un terme annoncé. Plus grave est sans doute la hâte manifestée par les MAGAphiles à vouloir s'engouffrer dans le convoi gagnant, avant qu'il ne déraille .
Ces trains éphémères de grande vitesse empêchent l'observation plus maitrisée de la complexité. Celà finit par créér les conditions pour que les conflits, l'immigration, l'I.A. ou la perte de légimité des démocraties, apparaissent irréversibles. Faux ! Les nouvelles alliances, le bruit des populistes, le racisme le plus élémentaire bénéficient à court terme d'un bail sans doute, mais point de la durée
L'Amérique se remettra. L'opposition a perdu une bataille. Il est dommage que le reflexe anti-féministe reste aussi coriace. On se retrouvera en 2026 pour les prochaines législatives. On jugera un bilan a mi-terme qui apparaitra alors comme une syncope qu'il eut mieux fallu éviter.
L'Europe, débarassée de la présidence Hongroise, pourra pour sa part enfin mieux considérer les suggestions pertinentes de Mario Draghi pour un réexamen et une thérapie urgents.
Trump est moins toxique que son vice président. Le premier est usé, le suivant est pressé.
Oh les beaux jours ...Pardon, Samuel Beckett.
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