THE TRUMP BULLET

Some bullets are (in)famous. Some are linked to the first world war (Sarajevo), to epic grief (President Kennedy), to Opera ( Freichutz ), to Agatha Christie (A Murder is Announced) wherein a bullet is supposed to have grazed an ear...and didn't.

Trump & Co. are a strange lot. From his parents on, this clan looks cursed, some corrupting everything that crosses their path. The former president turned lies and vulgarity into some form of trademark.

Now we encounter another ear story. We got Van Gogh, Beethoven, i.a., and now the many stories popping up regarding the "attempt on the former president's life". Some aspects are almost a copycat from the assassination of JFK: an uninteresting suspect, bullet(s) that raise more questions than leading to answers, finally, leaving the FBI and the Secret Service embarrassed.

Trump is cursed. Most Americans doubt, rightly so, most if not everything he argues. His demeanor, both with others and with facts, is a permanent walk on the dark side. He ceases the moment, the optics, the correction. When he was "shot" he took immediately command of the image that drives now the MAGA crowd in a frenzy. 

Like in Agatha Christie, the distraction hides the path of the bullet.

THE KAMALA HARRIS EFFECT

In a fortnight everything changed in America. Trump suddenly shows his age. The Trump women appear hopelessly out of touch with today's demands and requirements. Vance represents noise over substance. The usual "entourage" fell on their face, like Rudy Giuliani...pathetic.

Kamala Harris will be a formidable contender. If she were to consider Pete Buttigieg as running mate she would create the dream team that many Americans only dared to imagine.

President Biden made a historic decision in accepting the toll of age over the lure of four more years. He has been a great president and his decline must have felt like the ultimate affront. Still, his withdrawal shouldn't be confused with quitting.

The Democrats were given a miraculous alternative. They had better come to terms with the scenario wherein the better intentions now have the opportunity to continue or improve the many achievements of the Biden administration.

As long as there is Trump, America is undone home and abroad. He has been compared to other unsavory figures, current and past, but at the end of the day, his vicious vulgarity has no precursor. If he were to lose the presidential election he would appear even more pathetic and, yes, very old indeed.

Kamala Harris is smart. Hence she knows that there are not enough containers to carry the insults and lies that the Trump machine is already loading. Likewise the last months of the Biden presidency might be painful to watch, since the Republican handbook doesn't make room for correct behavior or truth. She will rally all who have a social and intellectual fiber. They are the new silent majority eager to raise their voice and to embrace the idea of a country again at peace with itself. 

Suddenly the world will pay close attention to this other American drama. Countries that respect the United States will support Kamala Harris. The ones that don't better be counted for future reference.

SOMETHING IS ROTTEN IN THE USA (MY APOLOGIES TO SHAKESPEARE)

While the Democrats watch Ionesco's play Exit the King, the Republicans chose to perform in some sort of Marat/Sade revival, made accessible to the deplorables. Trump rose, Biden sank.

The Republican show in Milwaukee was nauseating.  What was said by Trump, vice-president nominee Vance or Peter Navarro is frankly frightening. The histrionics of Hulk Hogan and others set the general tone of another "carnage" of manners. The prominent Trump women were all modelled in the cabinet of Dr. Caligari.

One should not underestimate this freaky appropriation by the Republicans of everything that appeals to the less recommendable instincts. Biden's sad Untergang gave Trump a window he gladly smashed. The Democrats are in panic while nothing moves their camp besides some polite questioning stuck between an irretrievable past and what appears to be an inescapable terrible future.

It shouldn't be like that, since the Democrats have the better program and good candidates. The President has done a sterling job. One wonders why he would risk all that out of a sudden stubborn misplaced pattern of behavior that is self-defeating.

The world is watching with glee, or in panic. Europeans would be left to their own devices under a second Trump term. The world at large could enter into some apocalypse of trade wars , migration mayhem, and religious aberration, à l'américaine.  One should beware of generalizations. There is something rotten in America, indeed, but Europe as well deals with its own "old right", with uneven success. The reality remains that more Americans believe in generosity, progress, culture, than the screamers heard in Milwaukee. The better actors are ready but the stage has to be readied...asap.

IS THE TRUMP ATTACK ANTIETHICAL TO AMERICA ?

Trump knows how to bend events and circumstance to his advantage.

After yesterday's assassination attempt the former president's ear is already more famous than Van Gogh's. 

He also has the genius to twist events to his advantage. His defiance in pain and shock, his instinct for body language, might already have won him the upcoming presidential election. Imagine Biden in a similar circumstance?

More seriously, America's addiction to guns is sick. Trump's own dubious relationship with the gun lobby came home to roost. Tragically, the vicious macho allure of weaponry is spreading. The most peaceful or placid places everywhere are no longer spared from this other scourge.

In America the fools, the deplorables and the corrupt can now coalesce around their new martyr. Biden might end up looking even older than he is. Yesterday's bullet might well become Trump's unforeseen masterstroke.

AMERICA : THE THEME OF KING LEAR IS THE DECAY AND FALL OF THE WORLD (JAN KOTT)

President Biden can look back on many years of public service. His personal life has often been a confrontation with very personal tragedy. As president he tried, often convincingly, to renew the contrat social with all Americans.

Obviously all this comes at a price for an aging man. It is normal that his relative decline has become a factor, also in the perception others can have or are aware of. The accelerated physical toll is for all to see. Increased mental deterioration is perverse. It affects behavior and also better judgement.

President Biden is obviously frustrated and can sound upset, entering a zone of rasher judgement and overreactive pique. Instead of rallying respect and consideration, he ends up alienating his own deserved support. His entering in the danger zone of shrill denial only increases the King Lear narrative about an old man, often out of touch and unable to listen.

If he were to show more self-control and were able to normalize the overall perception, he would reassure the alerted observers. Democrats would still be willing to give him four more years. But on the contrary, the angry denial and repetitive corrections coming from his entourage are over-invasive. He listens too much to his inner circle and not enough to the well-meaning others who only want to save him from humiliation.

His opponent is smart enough to let Biden auto-destruct. Soon,  the Democrats will be out of time to pick another candidate. 

All this might lead yet again to an inglorious ending and four years of upheaval in America, and added trouble world-wide.

FRANCE : LE VERTIGE DE L' HEMICYCLE

Les élections législatives en France ont accouché d'un cube Rubic. Le président pourrait se retrouver bien seul, confronté à un résultat pervers. La gauche est majoritaire, la droite est sortie dernière et la mouvance Macron se retrouve entre deux chaises. 

En réalité la situation est plus compliquée que les résultats ne le laissent paraitre. Dans le camps Macron les interrogations et frustrations sont nombreuses. L'amour propre de plusieurs, à commencer pas son premier ministre, a encaissé des coups. La gauche a fait barrage contre Le Pen mais une fois le résultat acquis elle ne s'entend sur rien. Au demeurant le succès relatif du RN ne saurait être sous-estimé .

Reste que le président se retrouve sans majorité. On est en droit de s'interroger sur ce qui a conduit Macron à prendre une décision risquée. Aprés les élections européennes décevantes il eut été normal de faire l'économie d'un nouveau dérapage.

Il n'est pas possible de prévoir la suite. La gauche risque gros car ce front "populaire nouveau" avec Mélenchon et un programme suranné n'est pas viable. La droite s'est mise hors-jeu. Le parti Renaissance du président est un second honorable mais numériquement insuffisant comme support.

D'aucuns parlent déjà d'une impasse et d'un scénario d'instabilité. C'est faire peu de cas de l'intelligence politique du pays. De toute évidence il faudra laisser du temps pour que la classe politique se ressaisisse . Cette élection de choc met aussi en lumière la valeur ajoutée que représente la France sur le plan international. Il est capital pour l'Union européenne que son timonier essentiel reste à la barre.

A l'intérieur, les forces centrifuges ne désarmeront pas. Le président Macron sait qu'il y a péril en la demeure. Le temps de l'hémicycle dosé, prémédité n'est plus.

JAMAIS DEUX SANS TROIS ?

Le président Biden est mal conseillé. Eu égard à son parcours, on pouvait encore imaginer qu'il réussirait à faire oublier sa mauvaise forme lors du premier débat présidentiel. Il n'en est rien. Les couacs se multiplient. Il devient urgent d'assumer la réalité. Continuer ne fait qu'aggraver un déficit inquiétant. On ne gagne pas avec un surcis. Kamala Harris est la meilleure alternative, coté talent, persuasion et familiarité avec les problèmes. Elle changerait les accents mais le texte resterait le mème.

Deuxième victime, le parti conservateur en Angleterre qui git par terre. Les Travaillistes remportent une victoire électorale historique. C'était attendu mais l'ampleur de la déconvenue des Conservateurs est énorme. Que Farage ait aussi réussi à être élu démontre que le Brexit a ses opposants certes, mais qu'il garde aussi ses alliés. Keir Starmer a devant lui une tâche énorme, surtout eu égard à l'existence de courants contradictoires au sein de la nouvelle majorité.

Reste le vote français dimanche. Macron a été un acteur politique extraordinaire, renouant avec une vision et une ambition ne plus observées depuis de Gaulle. Il a été la référence unique et inconditionnelle pour une nouvelle Europe. Sans doute l'engouement rencontré a-t-il  bénéficié de l'air de routine de la commission de Bruxelles, comme de la grisaille émanant de Berlin.

En résumé, deux mousquetaires connus sont fragilisés ou KO, le troisième sortira affaibli, mème si les troupes de Madame Le Pen n'obtiennent pas la majorité absolue.

Devant la multiplication des lézardes dans l'habitat occidental, le camps Poutine/ Xi § Co observe. Les observateurs ailleurs se garderont bien de se prononcer alors que le temps devient de plus en plus incertain. L'ombre de Trump est menaçante.  Il faut bien reconnaitre qu'il réussit à être présent sans grand effort personnel mais avec des appuis judicieusement mobilisés. Les Sturmtruppe républicains sont dès à présent préparés.

L'Occident risque d'entrer dans une période de remise en question dans laquelle les divisions fondamentales auront libre cours.