Wednesday, December 25, 2024

LE PAPE ET LE ROI

Le pape a décidé d'entamer le processus de béatification de Baudouin 1, roi des Belges.

Cette décision, tombée du ciel (c'est le cas de le dire) a surpris le gouvernement, l'épiscopat  et les Belges.

Le Belge moyen est devenu indifférent par rapport à la religion, en premier lieu le catholicisme. Ce revirement se situe dans la foulée d'un nombre d'évènements . L'église a très mauvaise presse dans l'histoire de la colonisation du Congo. Les nombreux scandales qui sont venus à jour et le laxisme de l'autorité religieuse ont fortement ébranlé sa crédibilité. Les évènements au Moyen Orient ternissent en Europe à la fois les religions qui s'opposent sur place et la religion en général.

Personne ne conteste le charisme du roi Baudouin mais il n'était pas sans défauts. On peut s'interroger sur son attitude au sujet des évènements qui ont tristement marqué l'indépendance du Congo. Il a refusé de signer la loi votée par le Parlement, légalisant l'avortement conditionnel. On peut objecter qu'il a ainsi failli à son serment.

Ce roi reste estimé et aimé. Avec la reine Fabiola ils formaient un couple d'autant plus extraordinaire que les Cobourgs avant eux s'étaient surtout fait remarquer par leurs écarts.

Baudouin n'avait vraiment pas besoin d'un reliquaire alors qu'il reste dans les mémoires et les coeurs un homme souvent autoritaire mais toujours de classe.

THOMAS FRIEDMAN IN THE NYT ABOUT CHINA

Friedman's analysis regarding China is pertinent. People do not realize the strives China has made in half a century. From being Mao's laboratory it became the world's envy.

The amazing progress in all fields, mostly A.I., technology, weaponry and pertinence in strategic world affairs is spectacular. Otherwise the lift-off of such a large population in a more competitive middle-class society comes also with some risks. The Chinese family structure is obliged to move from the round table unit into the rectangular model, and this is easier said than done.

Today's world is not a pretty picture. China will also pay a price for its former embrace of countries that were already unreliable from the start and have become bankrupt today. Putin still does the same but it doesn't affect a combination of two known evils, while China has become the second superpower with the ambition to be the first. As Obama said before, Russia remains a regional power, with all the malign consequences it brings with it.

China is self-conscious and culturally arrogant. It always was so and President Xi knows how and when to activate Chinese historical identity. This is also a reason why Taiwan is such a difficult cypher to break. The Shanghai Communique lost one of its main creators in the person of Dr. Kissinger. Together with President Nixon he managed the coup du siècle, with the opening to China. Tragically, no successors were found for this golden, albeit uneven era of American diplomacy. Probably the Chinese will take into account Trump's shaky wanderings in international affairs because besides India and maybe Japan, the theater where partners meet runs empty. The EU became a poorhouse, the UK retains the pomp but has little pertinence and the Gulf States are too selfish to look beyond their narrow self-interest.

Chinese history is not always pleasant but it obeyed a set of rules and retained a discipline which makes for a predictable pattern of political and diplomatic behavior. It is not an aggressive power beyond what it considers to be its own (Taiwan, the Spratly's, border dispute with India). Overall it demands to be recognized as a major player. Nobody should underestimate the many susceptibilities which survived the emperors and dynasties that ruled by ritual and ceremonial distancing.

The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs might look Western but their à la carte bonhomie shouldn't fool anyone. When the Chinese smile, the alarms should set off.

I for one will be happy to return. I'll read Friedman first.

Sunday, December 22, 2024

THIS SINKING FEELING

I left America where Nero is waiting in the aisle. I arrived in Europe which is heading for the evil iceberg, oblivious.

Nobody can predict where Trump's ship of fools is heading. It is not hard to foresee a European meltdown wherein the normal powers get busted and wherein the "new normal" (Hungary, Italy, i.a.) starts to set the tone.

The EU is on life support. The former first tier countries, France and Germany, appear exhausted. Poland and the Baltics have their own regional legitimate priorities. Even the Netherlands appear suddenly insecure. If Belgium were ever get its act together it might be smart to return to the former Benelux  model which rivalled, often successfully, its European counterparts.

Brussels is the perfect place for hosting the European headquarters and NATO. It lives in its own chaos; it doesn't interfere in the latter and doesn't count in the former.

Nevertheless the overall geopolitical situation is dire. It is bad enough that the EU feels like a ship without a captain. America appears to become overloaded with mostly uninformed, clueless personae, whose lifespan solely depends on the mood of a narcissist. The happenings that come out of Mar-a-Lago have all the ingredients of some Peplum technicolor in the Sixties. Melania fits the bill.

All this could be almost trivial if the rest of the world were still on some normal trajectory. There are enough nutcases, human tragedies, evil players to make one homesick for the times of Kissinger. He was far from faultless but he was able to put roadblocks where need overturned caution. The current Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, will be missed. This man of modesty and class deserves gratitude and respect.

The final year of President Biden was a painful act to swallow. Fortunately his government and especially his close advisers in foreign affairs, defense, economy, finance, infrastructure, made for a sterling legacy. 

Miracles are a thing of the past. One must beware of a future wherein the weakness of one and the craziness of the other create the perfect storm.


Wednesday, December 4, 2024

LE PARDON DE BIDEN

Le président sortant a réalisé un beau score. Sans enthousiasmer les foules il pouvait se prévaloir d'un nombre considérable de succès et d'avances, sociale et économique. L'âge l'a rattrapé. Il est dommage qu'il n'a pas su maitriser une ultime étape qui le  laisse affaibli et surtout otage jugements contestables.

Voilà qu'il a pardonné son fils, en contradiction avec ses déclarations antérieures. On peut comprendre le père sans approuver pour autant le président. Ainsi il a terni sa réputation et embarassé les démocrates. Hunter Biden est une personnalité ambigue qui a manifestement mal géré des erreurs de jugement qu'il n'a d'ailleurs jamais contestées. En tout il a fait preuve d'un cynisme permanent.

Tout homme d'état a ses conseillers qui veillent à ce que les faiblesses et faux pas restent sous contrôle et n'apparaissent pas aux heures de grande écoute. Biden avait besoin d'être moins vu, moins subi, moins entendu. Ses sorties sont devenues pénibles et ses commentaires embarassants.

L'age peut exterminer la raison tempérée. D'aucuns ont maitrisé leur sortie...de Gaulle, Mandela, Gorbachev. Biden semble n'avoir retenu de l'âge que l'aspect naufrage. Il méritait mieux...

Saturday, November 30, 2024

TOMORROW'S CURSE ?

There is a lot of talk with regard to Trump's recent electoral victory. It has been called lots of superlatives, while the balance of power has hardly changed. America remains mostly a house divided. What has happened is that the MAGA's will be in full control of all the branches of government until the midterms, two years from now. There still remain some Republican dinosaurs who might make the MAGA coup not a done deal.

Until the inauguration in January a lot can happen. Musk's new DOGE machine is ready for the onslaught. The various, often surreal nominations for the cabinet appear to be more about kissing the ring than about outlining policies.

How this freak show is being considered in Moscow or Beijing is a sobering consideration. That the same envoy will deal with Russia and Ukraine should scare any informed observer of international affairs. Suffice to go back to the "good days" of the Cold War and imagine that the Soviet Union and Finland were supervised under the same US umbrella. This would have been considered, rightly so, as a tacit approval of Finlandization...the Trump administration is already suspect of making deals with Russia, on the back of Ukraine or NATO. Everything has to be done to support Ukraine's independence and choice of destiny. One had better be beware of  giving Putin an inch because his aim is to break up a world order that collides with his interests. Unfortunately, while Trump is transactional and unreliable, the West is weak, devoid of leaders and lacking self- confidence and pride.

The foreseeable negative trend in America thrives partially because of European indecision. The military, social and economic disarray in the EU is accelerating because of a failing overall leadership. Germany is on hold, France becomes a Rubik cube with no end in sight. Here and there the populists raise their heads and fists. The undercurrent of anti-Semitism is becoming really alarming. The Commission in Brussels is unloved and too large for its own credibility. The EU Council cannot come to terms with Viktor Orbàn & Co. The world is packed with dead and ailing bodies, left after the slaughter inflicted by the unanimity curse. The Security Council of the UN is a corpse. The mortuary is making room for the EU.

The overall situation could be less dramatic if instead of indulgence in self-fulfilling prophecies, people were dialing         911 for a start.

The next months will be interesting. They might also be sobering. The dollar will rule, also in Moscow.  With friends as these, who needs (more) enemies?

AU REVOIR MADAME LABHIB

Exit Lahbib , entre Bernard Quintin comme Ministre des Affaires Etrangères en Belgique.

Le président du MR annonce, le Premier Ministre Alexander De Croo encaisse. Ainsi fonctionne la particracie en Belgique.

A priori le nouveau titulaire a, contrairement à Madame Labhib, un beau palmares. Ce n'est donc pas la personnalité qui dérange, c'est une nouvelle fois un système politique bancal qui indispose.

La Belgique est devenue l'otage de personnalités qui peuvent trop souvent opérer en dehors de tout contrôle parlementaire. 

Les ombres chinoises dictent la politique. Si les exécutants apparaissent souvent débiles c'est que leur profil n'est devenu  qu'un accessoire pour leurs mandataires .

D'aucuns se posent la question de deviner si Bart De Wever, prochain Premier Ministre, choisira le modèle Gaston Eyskens ou Jean Luc Dehaene, plutôt que d'être le dindon de la farce...de toute façon Thanksgiving c'était hier. Les parieurs préfèrent la premiere option, celà promet du plaisir.

Monday, November 25, 2024

THANKSGIVING 2024

Oscar Wilde suggested that there are only two tragedies in life. One being not getting what one wants and the other being getting it. This could as well be the perfect epitaph for today's America. Many are shell-, or better, Trump-shocked. The mood gets worse with each designation that comes out of Mar-a-Lago's gaudy theater of the absurd. The incoming administration covers an arc that goes from the pathetic (Marco Rubio) to the demonic (Sebastian Gorka). 

America is a democracy and Trump's victory is absolute. He gave the forgotten males an umbrella and promised to keep them safe from the godless, leftist, woke intellectuals who rule the coasts. This is surprising since the US economy is the envy of the world. It also proves Thomas Piketty right when he argues that capital return is stronger than the rate of economical growth. Obviously the voters didn't buy the assertion that the trading room is a weapon of financial destruction of the common man.

It is far too early to predict the outcome of this "coup". The awakened MAGA beast might be hard to get back into the cage of failed experiments. Unleashed it might create a havoc too few saw coming.

This Thanksgiving feels more absurd than ever. The parade in Manhattan will be at the same time festive in a Norman Rockwell way and somewhat frightening in a mad Disney way. Beverly Hills will look its usual empty, devoid of people and "normal "air to breathe. Some Americans feel solace in their current gloomy bestsellers, or better in Cabo where the brown people stay rather than emigrate.

The world will have to adjust to the uncomfortable seating arrangement during the long, four-year flight. The Asians will adjust, the Africans of sub-Sahara don't count but for some raw materials, the Middle East will skip the journey all together and the Europeans will suffer all Angsts in their cramped seats. The EU has already an economy on life-support and a defense out of a Plautus satire...ça promet.

John Updike said that America is a vast conspiracy to make one happy. Unfortunately the luxuries don't make up for the necessities.

Thursday, November 21, 2024

"VLAAMSE" TOETSEN

Met Demir en Weyts zijn "inheemse" toetsen "in". Aan het licht van zoveel domme uitspraken wordt het normaal dat velen  zich de vraag stellen wat de dwergregeringen in Belgie nog voorstellen.

Overal in de E.U. staan de signalen op rood. De wereld, in de eerste plaats de V.S., wordt onvoorspelbaar. Men staat zker niet te wachten op Belgie, dat het zelf niet meer haalt in een voetnota in The Economist of in de versleten Belgenmoppen, die vroeger nog een publiek vonden in Frankrijk of Nederland. De lachspieren werden ingeruild voor medeleven.

Bart De Wever verdient respect om toch nog te proberen een regering te vormen die misschien nog kans maakt orde te her- stellen in begroting, defensie, klimaat, buitenlandse zaken, kultuur, gezondheiszorg, die nu in de spoedafdeling zijn ondergebracht.

Ondertussen praat de "Vlaamse regering" verder voor eigen aanhang (die er nog is) , in de vogelkooi die dienst doet als "Vlaams" parlement. De Walen doen het beter of tenmiste discreter in Namen.

Spaak, Harmel, Dehaene zouden met ongeloof dit triest  spektakel bekijken en helaas moeten incasseren dat Belgie in de E.U.voortaan niet langer meetelt. Onze ministers worden nog "ondergaan" maarer wordt niet meer naar geluisterd. Het klinkt onrechtvaardig, o.m. voor Alexander De Croo, maar als je telkens weer  voor een Europese beslissing nog X aantal akoorden moet afdwingen binnenlands, gebeurt dat op de rug van de  geloofwaardigheid.

Dit beroert de "dwaallichten" in de Belgische regios niet. Dat het land ondertussen verkommert laat ze koud. Het helpt wel de verkoop van "The ugliest houses in Belgium", een internationale bestseller. De straten komen nog aan beurt voor een vervolg in de serie.

Blijft de Opera....De Munt werd terecht onderscheiden als de meest creatieve Bühne in Europa...Het ontbreken aan "Vlaamse toetsen" zal waarschijnlijk  in Genk en elders kwaad bloed zetten, met de gevolgen vandien. 

Leopold II sprak over "petit pays, petites gens", nu zou hij het meervoud moeten gebruiken..."petits pays", inderdaad.

Monday, November 18, 2024

BERLIN CALLS MOSCOW

Whenever the Germans and the Russians are talking, jitters appear.  Brest-Litovsk, Rapallo, the non-aggression pact with Russia, the Ostpolitik created, an unfortunately, rightly proven, malaise in Europe. The German Chancellor's calling Putin last week raises again the usual questions. Olaf Scholz heads a dying coalition inside and is almost a non persona outside. Besides breaking ranks with the EU and NATO, he leaves Kiev with unanswered questions. That Biden allowed Ukraine to use long- range missiles against Russia right now, will be seen by many as non-coincidental.

Obviously, sooner rather than later, one will have to talk to Moscow. Since this will be more than just small talk, this will require coordination with, and agreement of all. One should realize that the change of administration in Washington might create chaos and lead to a reversal of fortunes. Already Europeans know that the lovefest with America is a thing of the past. They should stay clear of clumsy initiatives they can hardly afford in this political international no man's land.

The United States is still a democracy until January. What might come later looks ominous, given President Trump's well-known deficits, both in history and personal chemistry. He despises what he perceives as Western European's condescending attitude. He likes A.I. because it doesn't talk back.

Europeans should be alarmed and better pay their NATO contribution in full, before getting rightfully humiliated. Macron's ideas regarding a degree of EU's strategic autonomy are correct, but coming from the French they become almost fatally suspect...

At least the French receive the benefit of the doubt. Since Helmut Kohl, the Germans have lost a lot of their luster. Angela Merkel's descent into purgatory is unfair, compared to Margaret Thatcher's continuous adulation. 

While leaders with global reach appear in the Middle East and Asia, they have become an endangered species in America and Europe. They fought AIDS and COVID successfully but the spread of populism keeps growing.

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

L 'AMERIQUE DESABUSEE

Le monde va mal. Il craque de partout. On enregistre (à peine) l'accident et on oublie les victimes.

L'Ukraine est une blessure permanente. Le Soudan est une amnésie. Ailleurs, en premier lieu au Proche-Orient, en Europe et en Asie, les certitudes se fragilisent. La guerre froide d'hier est devenue "fable" ou BD.

Arrive par dessus ce triste bilan ,Trump. Il fait beaucoup parler de lui, ce qui l'enchante. Celà est une excellente raison pour en parler moins, ce qui l'enrage. Déjà il rassemble son entourage, prévisible, et par conséquent inquiétant. Marco Rubio, à qui il réservait le sobriquer de "little Marco", deviendrait le Secrétaire d'Etat...On croit rêver. De toute façon les MAGA qui "débarquent" sont toutes et tous du mème aloi... opportunistes.   

Le camps adverse a besoin de sang froid et de recul . La bête doit être ignorée avant d'être achevée.

La victoire de Trump contraste avec la descente aux enfers de plusieurs leaders Européens. Les mèmes causes ont conduit à des résultats opposés dès deux cotés de l'Atlantique. Néanmoins on tend à exagérément dramatiser, comme si le système solaire était à tout jamais dérèglé. Il n'en est rien. Les péripéties politiques portent en elles le germe d'un terme annoncé. Plus grave est sans doute la hâte manifestée par les MAGAphiles à vouloir s'engouffrer dans le convoi gagnant, avant qu'il ne déraille .

Ces trains éphémères de grande vitesse empêchent l'observation plus maitrisée de la complexité. Celà finit par créér les conditions pour que les conflits, l'immigration, l'I.A. ou la perte de légimité des démocraties, apparaissent irréversibles. Faux ! Les nouvelles alliances, le bruit des populistes, le racisme le plus élémentaire bénéficient à court terme d'un bail sans doute, mais point de la durée

L'Amérique se remettra. L'opposition a perdu une bataille. Il est dommage que le reflexe anti-féministe reste aussi coriace. On se retrouvera en 2026 pour les prochaines législatives. On jugera un bilan a mi-terme qui apparaitra alors comme une syncope qu'il eut mieux fallu éviter.

 L'Europe, débarassée de la présidence Hongroise, pourra pour sa part enfin mieux considérer les suggestions pertinentes de Mario Draghi pour un réexamen et une thérapie urgents. 

Trump est moins toxique que son vice président. Le premier est usé, le suivant est pressé. 

Oh les beaux jours ...Pardon, Samuel Beckett.


Saturday, November 9, 2024

VANCE VICTOR

Trump won. Kamala lost. And the winner is Vance. 

The MAGA tribe clicked with the Trump/Vance anti-immigrant stance and felt comfortable in the civil war which rages between the coast and the "fly-over" rest. The former Republican Party is dead...for now.

Kamala Harris was too abstract, too "French" maybe, to break through the imagined frustrations that still rule many hearts and minds in the heartland. The regular American male is impervious to sophistication and largely suspicious of metaphysics or abortion. The vice-president ended up being seen as an urban, elitist candidate with too little understanding of mostly the common male Angst.

Trump was "entertaining", personal, incoherent but forgiven for the non-stop lies and transgressions that made him male- friendly. Kamala won over educated women and men, straight and gay. Probably she was too often seen as a "one issue" candidate and ended up alienating a large chunk of the traditional Democrat electorate. Her choice for vice-president backfired. Waltz is a true loyal gentleman but hardly a match for his unscrupulous Republican opponent. The governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, would have been the better option.

Trump has every reason to move fast. Biden's last months in office will be bittersweet. His own party is unkind. This man of another age already shows nevertheless more class than others, inviting the president-elect to the White House and going to the inauguration of a man he must loathe, rightly so.

The world will have to adapt to this new administration which may excel in chaos or bluff. Already the new vice-president, who is far more slick and slippery than his boss, receives more attention than other vice-presidents, even before inauguration. But he might have to protect his turf from Elon Musk, another vulture that Trump will let loose in a divide et impera mode. His entourage had better be on notice.

The culture war will only get nastier.



Friday, November 8, 2024

HET VERDRIET VAN BELGIE

Het Westen kampt overal met een soort legitimiteit storing. De V.S., Duitsland, Frankrijk o.a. lijden aan een kronische  moeilijk te definiëren aandoening, een politieke Krohn ziekte die hun psyche ontvricht.

De Belgische stilstand heeft minder te maken met existentiele problemen dan met een soort neurotisch ingebouwd provinciaal isolationisme, dat leidt tot een soort vervreemding en "non-actief". Dit land heeft niet langer een buitenlandse politiek, een defensie, laat staan een macro ekonomische bedrijfcultuur.

Het blijft uitkijken naar een federale regering. De onderhandelingen slepen aan en de lawine van het begrotings- tekort dreigt elke therapie met de dag  pijnlijker te maken. De onderlinge absurde regeringen maken ook een enge bedroevende indruk. De Vlaamse regering overweegt nu een soort bona fide taaldrempel test die alleen maar de "know how" van buitenlands talent aan de deur zet en leidt tot een een onvriendelijke integratie . De betere tijden van Flanders Technology en Jan Hoet's Chambres d'Amis zijn voorgoed voorbij. Blijft nog het dwaallicht in Genk.

Van Loo en Lanoye zijn de melancholische vertolkers van een vergeten melodie. Moest Bart De Wever Eerste Minister worden dan zal hij schrikken  van de ontoereikende middelen  waarmee hij zal worden geconfronteerd. Hij is intelligent genoeg om daaruit de pertinente gevolgen te trekken. Belgie verkeert in een zelf gegraven put. De meeste poltici zijn taal en internationaal onkundig. Zelf Conner Rousseau, het SP Wonderkind, begint meer te passen bij zijn Tik Tok truien dan in een aangepast profiel voor de internationale Buhne.

Waarschijnlijk blijven er nog personaliteiten over die nog de drempel van enige staaatszin kunnen bereiken. Van Peteghem, Vandenbroecke, Bertrand, Prévot zitten in dat peleton. Spaar het land van de Michels. Lahbib zit veilig in de EU onder het sceptisch oog van Van der Leyen....Ouf !

Belgie, droogt U tranen en bestraft liever de partijvoorzitters from hell, (Mahdi en Prevot uitgezonderd) .


Wednesday, November 6, 2024

TRUMP'S KRISTALLNACHT 5 11 24

The magnitude of Trump's win is awesome. His mandate is absolute in political terms.

Kamala Harris' loss is a slap in the face of the more liberal leaning Americans.

The Democrats' nakba is a tragedy for the men and women who still believed in the rescue of the American dream. The dream ended up in the gutter, like Richard III's crown.

The consequences for Americans will be enormous, given that the Senate and House will be under MAGA control. The Republican Party is dead, partially by its own moral betrayal.

There is not much that the traditional Western allies can do, since Trump's wrath will roam free. Netanjahu and Orban will be relieved. The axis Pyongyang /Beijing/ Moscow/ Teheran must feel glee. NATO, the EU, the Five eyes, Ukraine and Taiwan mostly, will have to regroup. The forgotten wars everywhere, and climate will wait. Destabilizing trends will amplify unabated.

America will cope, eventually, but the country is broken for now. It is impossible to sort cause and effect. Already some argue that Biden stayed too long, that Kamala Harris presented herself too often as a women's candidate. Both comments are largely unfair and the fable of the angry American male who flocked to Trump's machismo is unconvincing. It is far too early to make definitive assertations.

In the short run the dubious Trump court, packed with unpleasant characters, will remodel the ailing leftovers of the American democracy. It looks ominous, given the actors already under consideration.

At least Western Europe might benefit in some perverse way from this nightmare since some of the best will prefer to wait and see in more welcoming places than in America's heartland.

At the end of the day Kamala Harris' defeat is America's shame.



Saturday, November 2, 2024

THE IDES OF NOVEMBER

America today doesn't make sense.

There is a president who inhabits some Ionesco scenario out of "Exit the King". Normally, one could expect him to represent calm and reason at times of scarcity of both. The reality is that everybody wants him to remain out of view...and remain silent. This is an ungrateful world alas wherein a too long goodbye , as Biden's, is already becoming a shroud which covers his impressive social and economic achievements. Times as these require a Churchill or a De Gaulle.  Even Macron would do. 

It is hazardous to predict the outcome of Tuesday's election. Both candidates sound and act exhausted. Both focus on parts of the electorate that they might have neglected for too long:  the vote of Generation X for Trump, the "frustrated" (read: dumb) males for Kamala Harris.

Trump is more wicked than he appears. Kamala is more sociologically wired than her stump speech often sounds. In reality, the day after Tuesday could unleash a beast that will unabashedly roam free. American institutions have become weakened through open hostile infiltration. A Faustian pact with the devil became normalized.

 History has a poor reputation in this country and it shows. The bitter aftermath of Europe's or China's "mistakes" should have taught Americans a lesson. The "costume MAGA parties" look ridiculous but they are, in real terms, frightening.

Whatever the outcome next week, America will lose once and for ever its fraudulent Disney image. There will be violence. If Trump were to win, the Pinochet mantra might appear in the Northern hemisphere. If Kamala Harris wins, a MAGA cataclysmic apocalypse will be unchained. Already the preparation is under way.

There are enough anti-genes in America to build up resistance but the rules and standards that apply in the better half will have to fight an uneven battle. Gerrmany's Reichswerh had a honor code after all. The manipulated MAGA hordes follow only the SA or SS .

The world at large looks on, most with fear, some with relish. The USA will sooner or later have to reexamine it workings. The democratic majority rule doesn't apply. The branches of government are independent in name only. The Supreme Court has become an alternative path for a political take-over. Societies come with their own perils, that is why they need the likes of Pasteur or Salk to survive. Here and now, America might end up with Musk and Robert Kennedy, Jr. instead.

Bonne route !


Wednesday, October 30, 2024

AMERICA BETWEEN GOOD AND EVIL

Americans in both parties look exhausted. Never, since the Civil War, has the country be as divided. The Democrats fight an uphill battle. Trump looks and sounds often demented but his strength lies in the connection he forged with mostly rural, often southern parts of the country, that are often evangelical and conservative. Kamala Harris appears too close to San Francisco and to the more sophisticated, liberal "elites", while in reality she is just a liberal, sophisticated persona, deferential to the changes that occur in society, demography, culture and the new economy.

It is certainly paradoxical that Donald Trump, New Yorker, wealthy parvenu, became the crusader for the often less-affluent, less-educated, predominantly white male voters. This doesn't stop some of the wealthiest, often found among the High Tech wizards, to forego his vulgarity and to lend him generous financial support. Elon Musk acts as his Goebbels. The Hitler precedent comes often up but the Fuhrer in the early 1930s looked rather smart....  The international cabal (an arc of contradictory countries which covers such unlikely countries from North Korea, Russia to Israel...) favors the like-minded (?) MAGA candidate.

Kamala Harris needs to clearly distance herself, as much as courtesy allows, from President Biden, who showed again how dangerous he can be when allowed "free speech". His comments about the Trump followers are erasing the gaffes of the comedian who made the unfortunate utterance regarding Puerto Rico. Biden became a godsend for the GOP. Kamala must think "with friends like these....".

The polls are inconclusive, the mood is somber. If Trump wins, America will enter into a repetitive pattern of deconstruction and revenge. If Kamala Harris becomes president, the MAGA Sturmtruppen will repeat and expand on their January 6 Capitol riot and sabotage the rule of law. Internationally, Trump will not be shy to embrace Orban rather than Macron or to find a deal with Putin on the back of Zelensky. While the remnants of the former world order are under fire by the expanding BRICS, the EU and NATO might well arrive at the conclusion Wir schaffen das NICHT.

A Harris presidency would be applauded by most in the EU and be approached with caution worldwide. She is a persona with class, a woman with a contemporary mindset, a Mensch...In so many words the choice is easy, between a healer and a destroyer.

Friday, October 25, 2024

BELGISCHE REGERINGSFORMATIE IN ECHTENACH MODE

Het duurt, tot vervelens toe. De financien zieltogen, bedrijven worden ondermaats, het bestuur is ongeloofwaardig. De troep onderhandelaars doet voort. 

Nergens ziet men zo een stel weinig aantrekkelijke,slecht of onheus geklede, slecht bespraakte individuen "non stop" optreden voor de cameras. Soms leek het of RTL een monopolie had van miserable kadrering ( o.m.waarbericht rond de sympathieke Farid of kunst (?) en filmkriek in het Journaal) maar nu hebben wij de formateur en apostels. Mahdi en Prévot (zou een goede minister van buitenlandse zaken zijn) zijn uitblinkers. Rousseau kon beter zijn opwachting maken voor West Side Story.

Het draait allemaal rond de "supernota", maar wat uitlekt is niet van aard om het vertrouwen in een nieuwe efficientie te herstellen. Dit land is de opdeling van bestuur en verantwoordelijkheid beu. Het wil europees en internationaal herrijzen. De vorming van een Brusselse regering is niet langer een mop maar een tragedie, zoals de metro,de burgemeesters, het urbanisme (?), de verloedering van milieu, verkeer, diensten...armoede.

Nemen die lui ooit een vlucht uit Zaventem of Charleroi (!!!!!!!!!!!!) en durven zij het vergelijken met elders ? Uieindelijk blij ven ze misschien beter t'huis want zelf de goede bedoelingen (Mevr. van der Straeten) leveren alleen maar ongewenste resultaten op. 

Een bezoek van Ensor's intrede van Christus in Brussel in Los Angeles ( natuurlijk opnieuw aan Belgie ontnomen) ware aan  te raden . Christus heeft het beter in Californie dan moest hij in Belgie zijn gebleven !


BRIC(S) A BRAC

Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa were the original BRICS. Now they are joined by Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey is applying for membership.

In the past, Western steered alliances ruled the world...SIC TRANSIT ! The former Western world order is no longer. NATO is a beggar's opera. Bush killed the American inroads in the Middle East. Obama's Asian grand design is dead on arrival. The EU became what it is, an ambition drowned in a pool. 

The new axis of evil engineered by Putin should alarm the West. What it might lack in engineering or focus, it compensates with  some form of nihilistic acrimony. They come together less about goals than because of shared resentment. Putin has showed how he can master hurt feelings and imagined humiliation. This is all the more ironic since this former KGB apparatchik is the heir to the Gulag and the various coups in Prague, Warshaw and Budapest (Remember Mr. Orban?). True, China's Tien An Men follows the pattern.

What is at stake here is the Russian strategy to break the world into pieces. The growing falling apart of coherence, or a guiding agreed philosophical Meridien, benefits the freelancers. Russia watches while the American Secretary of State runs to  exhaustion.  Netanjahu's thank you note might well be joining the BRICS, club of enemies.

Meanwhile the American presidential campaigns are giving free elections a bad name. Thanks.


Saturday, October 19, 2024

ADAM GOPNIK REGARDING "THE UNMAKING OF AMERICA" (The New Yorker Oct.21,2024)

The US economy is booming. It is the envy of the world. Creativity rules... So why is the mood so somber? 

Elections and campaigns seldom bring the best out of people and candidates. In the US, the tone and tenure of Trump hits rock bottom. Kamala Harris stays on course but she cannot stay idle and ignore the lies and insults that multiply by the hour. In his latest "performance", with the blessings of the cardinal of New York, Trump surpassed himself in vulgarity and name calling.

Surprisingly the race is tight. Trump holds on to his followers, predominantly found among males in his predictable middle and southern zones of "influence", and among plutocrats he seduces with taxes on imports and tax breaks for themselves. He is supposedly making inroads with some Latino and Black voters. Vice-President Harris scores in the large cities and seaboard, with women and students.

The Republicans, or better the "Trumpians," focus on border security, immigration, and a mix of baloney, insults and complots. The Democrats follow a defensive, classical design wherein trusted alliances and creative social engineering stand central. 

Obviously there is more to it than just a summary of headlines. Here lies the perverse turn of this campaign, unlike any other. What is at stake is an existential outcome. If Trump wins, the end of America as we know and trust it, becomes a reality. The monsters that lie quiet will be awakened. The EU and NATO will need to regroup. The Middle East will be "free for all". Taiwan will be in shock. Russia & Co. will send heartfelt congratulations. The rest of the world will probably cope. One often forgets Australia...wrong! There is also Netanjahu of course but he is a closet Trump fan anyway...

If this is not ominous enough for a global freak-out there are the perverse implications of a real American coup d'état, a reversal of values, a vindication of imaginary persecution and deep-state plots cooked-up in abortion clinics and campuses, in art galleries and theatres. Trump imports his expensive bibles from China rather than trusting the Christian printers next door.  One can bet the cardinal is happy to support the enemy of women's rights over another imported dark Indian candidate.

Gopnik writes about the Apocalypse to come if Kamala Harris were to lose. Already many usually more serene observers note with some Angst that the outcome feels too close for comfort. The noise is always louder than reason of course, but given the existential nature of this critical watershed, one must hope that the better angels will prevail. The question remains how angels will force the remaining closed minds to open and to break through the walls of prejudice and of a perverse, fascist Welt Anschauung. 


BART DE WEVER EN ECHTGENOTE SERVEREN

Bart De Wever bekoort de perslui met koffie en Cola. Hij is een intelligente, geslepen politicus. Hij kent ook zijn Machiavelli.

Nochtans is er is er in zijn "entourage" te weinig plaats voor een meer internationaal afgestemd imago. Het blijft in de eerste instantie Vlaams baggeren, à la Demir. Sinds Jan Wolkers heeft turks fruit trouwens een " reputatie"...

Jammer, want dit land is internationaal meer en meer deficitair geworden (EU, NAVO,VN, Buitenlandse zaken, Onwikkeling, defensie...). Het heeft niel langer de invloed die het nog kon verzilveren tot Jean Luc Dehaene.

De schaarse berichtgeving ivm. de onderhandelingen over de nieuwe regering zijn trouwens zorgwekkend. Als men de weinige prestige zuilen ( o.a. Munt, PSK, KMI) die nog overblijven gaat toebedelen aan overkoepelende overheden, gaan die verloren. De teleurgang van de Belgica is de laatste alarmbel. De ramp van de opsplitsing van buitenlandse handel blijft ook een negatief dividend afleveren. Bart Eeckhout's alarmbel in De Morgen (19/10/24) is daarom pertinent, helaas.


De formateur kent geschiedenis en precedent. Van hem kan toch worden verwacht dat hij zijn overings opmerkbaar parcours als burgemeester en ook zijn succesvol partij profiel kan inruilen voor een internationale, europese meerwaarde. 

Hij zou ook nog zijn zoon kunnen aanraden niet te paraderen met een soort romeinse verwijzing -SPQA (!)-, die beter past bij  Nuremberg dan Antwerpen .


Thursday, October 17, 2024

YAHYA SINWAR

Crimes, enfin rattrapés par chatiment. Exit le monstre.

Il faut surtout espérer que les otages encore en vie retrouvent maintenant liberté et dignité.

Sinwar porte une énorme responsabilité. Il est le premier responsable de l'enfer de Gaza.

Maintenant il est temps de commencer à panser enfin les plaies et de donner une chance à un redressement.


Friday, October 11, 2024

LA FRACTURE AMERICAINE

Il devient de plus en plus apparant  que les Etats Unis traversent une crise qui est désormais structurelle.

Le parti républicain n'existe plus. Donald Trump lui a porté le coup de grâce. Reste un amalgame de frustrés, manipulés par une idéologie qui allie plusieurs contradictions. Elle se présente comme le chef de file d'un nouveau libéralisme mais elle tient un discours ouvertement réactionaire et isolationiste. Les références macro politiques et économiques sont franchement incohérentes.

Il faut reconnaitre que ce poujadime à l'américaine est désormais une réalité. Si Trump devait accéder à la présidence les répercussions tant à l'intérieur qu'à l'extérieur seraient immédiates. 

En Amérique le rêve américain est devenu cauchemar. Les divisions échappent au rationnel. Les antipathies sont "armées" et les camps sont devenus incompatibles, faute de pouvoir trouver des solutions, voir même des compromis. Celà se traduit encore dans un "remake" du genre Houellbecq ou carte et territoire deviennent comme les copies conformes des deux Allemagne avant la chute du mur de Berlin. Aujourd'hui le mur qui divise les Etats-Unis en camps opposés suit mème un trajet topographique, une ligne de démarcation entre urbain et le reste, entre laic et religieux, entre côtes Est et Ouest, entre modialistes et isolationistes, entre Fox News et les autres....

Dans le monde aujourd'hui rien ne s'arrange parce que tout le monde attend. L'Amérique ne trouve pas de partenaire parce que personne n'ose se pronocer ou choisir alors que l'on risque d'être confronté avec Trump qui n'entend pas être l'otage d'un héritage encombrant. Dans ces conditions le Moyen Orient, l'Ukraine, la mer de Chine, le Soudan, entre autres, attendent. 

On dit à juste titre que la présidentelle américaine revêt en 2024 un caractère complexe en raison de l'incertitude qu'elle ceée tant à l'intérieur qu'à l'extérieur. Quel que soit le résultat, l'Amérique sera confrontée à un "après" qui risque d'enflammer les esprits. Une fois le nom du président connu, les incertitudes internationales n'attendront plus. Trop traîne depuis trop longtemps. Une administration Trump trouverait immédiatement des alliés qui seraient par définition les bêtes noires d'une administation démocrate. L'Union Européenne ou l'Otan  craignent l'avènement de la première et souhaitent surtout le succès de la seconde.

En attendant tout le monde attend. L'ouragan viendra. Son intensité est difficile à prédire.

Saturday, October 5, 2024

TOM LANOYE

Tom Lanoye kreeg de prijs der Nederlandse letteren, hem uitgerijkt door koning Filip.

De eer is terecht en voelt aan als een weliswaar te korte opheldering in de Vlaamse teloorgang. Vlaanderen zit opgescheept met een aantal weinig aantrekkelijke excellenties die waarschijnlijk niet gaan afhaken van de vlaamse baksteen saga. Cultuur en vernieuwing werden opnieuw ondergebracht in de onderste schuif. Zelf "Flanders Technology" of "Chambres d'amis" die een echte euforie in het leven roepten zijn "have beens".

Het moet dus niet verbazen dat de Vlaamse overheid geen goed woord had voor de bekroning van deze in Noord en (verlicht)Zuid geprezen, onvoorspelbare Lucifer. 

Blijven Palieter en de bloeiende boomgaard (overings niet te misprijzen) die nog door de enge vlaamse beugel kunnen. De Schelde is niet langer gesloten, de verbeelding wel. Weyts en Demir o.a. zijn niet "the stuff dreams are made of".

Friday, October 4, 2024

PROCRASTINATION IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS.

In international affairs the vocabulary follows the situation. New concepts appear that earmark the changing tides in the world. Political science drives the conceptual changes.

Recently, since Israel's interventions in the Middle East, the term "proportional" appeared. It means that the retaliation for aggression or grievance is supposed to be on equal or comparable terms. Obviously when one is at a loss for words, sophisms will do. They are meaningless.

The arc of world affairs is a sobering phenomenon to watch, certainly from a Western perspective. After Yalta, the competing alliances between the USSR and the West left little room for third parties to intervene. The unstoppable rise of China changed all that. The largely accepted, or better endured American hegemony came slowly to a halt. A plethora of other, minor players changed the meridians of power. Where the battle royal was an affair of a few, the situation deteriorated, becoming a multiple, a less ideologically driven, permanent conflict between groupings driven by ambition, resentment, economical advantage or post-colonial revenge.

The United States was for a while the deus ex machina, able to stop conflict, manage the world, or act as the final arbiter. Dr. Kissinger was the last American statesman, the ultimate broker, and entertainer of almost planetarian relevance. Now we hear President Biden begging Israel not to cross the line which separates proportionate retaliation from overkill. So the better intentions get lost in cynical assessment. Such a nebulous appreciation can boomerang in other theatres wherein the parameters of conflict are interchangeable. The free-lancers-- Iran, North Korea, Belarus and to a certain degree Russia and China--will benefit from never-ending conflict by proxy. Wars have to come to an end, rather than being dragged on forever. Indeed this only leads to escalation. The termination of conflict is seldom pleasant but the continuation of back and forth weaponized hybrid intervention should be stopped by all means. A deterioration, in full view or a fall in oblivion (Sudan comes to mind) are perverse.

The American secretary of state is still the only one who travels the world in search of compatible arrangement, from Gaza to Haiti. Nobody acts, most stoke, few actively support. In the realm of ambiguities, the bad actors find their turf. The addiction to the proportional only prolongs conflict and can lead to a vicious metastasis. In given situations the Holbrooke method works. The Bosnian tragedy ended with a couple of bombs that hit "by accident" the Chinese embassy in Belgrade...so be it.

To return to the Middle East, only a Madrid bis and a two-state commitment can stop the madness. The Israeli P.M. has to go. The terrorist interlopers must be shunned once and forever. Europeans should finally quit their low-profile here and elsewhere. Unfortunately, the EU feels like an empty room and the ones that force the door are not the ones one wants. 

There is only one way to reverse course. Procrastination is the abandonment of self-esteem. Evil doesn't respond to proportionate therapy. It must be eradicated by all available means, even with the support of other less-likable opportunistic partners. The world doesn't take reservations anymore, tables are shared.


Wednesday, October 2, 2024

VANCE / WALZ : A DRAW

The debate between the vice president candidates was generally civil and was more a draw, with a slight advantage for Vance, who gave a slick performance wherein style compensates for his continuous evasion.

The Republican was able to distance himself from Trump's unstoppable vulgarity. The Democrat acted flustered. At the end of the day observers will retain more the body language on view than the intended persuasion of either. That is a pity because Walz scored on accuracy, obliging the Republican to run for cover, or better for ignoring the question.

It is doubtful that the debate has changed many minds. One can count on Trump to set the timer back on lies and bluster. Men age, and in the process they tend to lose their more attractive sides. Vance's advantage was more a question of better looks than right ideas, but here comes the next GOP leader.

Monday, September 30, 2024

LE PAPE EN BELGIQUE

La visite du Pape en Belgique s'est déroulée dans une indifférence polie. 

Le Premier Ministre Alexander De Croo a heureusement mis les points sur quelques "i" qui situent be pays réel.

Il eut été judicieux que la famille royale se montre plus distante. Le pays est pluraliste et sans doute est-il devenu  majoritairementl laic. Il faut espérer que l'image de feu le Roi Baudouin ne devienne l'enjeu d'une récupération périlleuse.

Les propos du pape dans un pays ou les églises restent vides sont apparus souvent déconnectés des réalités. Ils étaient plus proches de Trump que de la charité.

Saturday, September 28, 2024

MARCH 14 1939 REDUX , SEPTEMBER 27 2024

Dr. Emil Hacha, Czech State president met with Hitler who informed him that German troops were marching towards the Czech border. Under inhuman pressure Hacha fainted and had to be revived by injection. Early morning he had to place the fate of his country in the hands of the Fuhrer.

Yesterday, September 27, Trump met with President Zelensky in Trump Tower, another photo-op showing Trump on his most unappealing side. The Ukranian president looked uncomfortable and visibly marked by war and pressure. He must have thought that with "friend"s like Trump, he no longer needed enemies.

Hitler knew history, Trump is ignorant. Otherwise they are equally unpleasant.

The closer the presidential election comes, the more ominous the times we live in become. Difficult situations have been abundant in the past, but there were leaders who inspired and who lifted people out from becoming desperate. Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, Charles De Gaulle, Nelson Mandela were able to save their people from the collision of the tectonic plates. Today rogue leaders steer the same plates without a moral compass.  Zelensky is not tall like the MAGA king but he is still too large for his Russian nemesis to ignore.

It can be said that of all evil leaders, Trump is the most dangerous, since he has zero moral, historical or factual fiber. His lies and insults know NO borders. Putin & Co. are unpleasant and vicious but they know very well where the transgressions lead them. Trump is clueless or just oblivious of precedent.

If he were to win, the West had better run for cover and America for shelter. The current General Assembly of the UN gives a clear indication that we have entered the final agony of multilateralism. An aging Biden had the right words, again, but the noises elsewhere deafen the pertinence of a feeling that in the current circumstances feels hopelessly passé. Should we return to Spengler?

Monday, September 23, 2024

A PROPOS DES GARES A BRUXELLES

La Belgique et les gares... Du meilleur ( Anvers) au pire (Bruxelles) en passant par le contemporain (Liege).

Les gares du Midi et Nord sont des "égouts". Mème les trains, à l'étroit dans la jonction devenue trop étroite, gémissent.  Les chancres urbains autour s'étendent, sans que qui que se soit ne s'en émeuve. Le grand nettoyage épisodique à l' intérieur laisse le désastre à l'extérieur inchangé. La déterioration continue. Le voyageur qui entend arriver dans une capitale, va à la rencontre d'un enfer crasseux, voir mème hostile. 

On entend que plusieurs communes sont impliquées et que les travaux du metro fantôme ralentissent toute intervention. On dit que des démolitions de batiments vides( depuis toujours) sont prévues, qu'un bureau police sera installé et que le comfort des utilisateurs sera pris en considération (tiens). En attendant il faut attendre dans les courants d'air et essayer de trouver un taxi dans le terrain vague qui est supposé être une aire de stationnement.

On dit , à juste titre, que celà effraye autant l'homme d'affaires que le voyageur stressés, qui comparent leur misérable arrivée à d'autres situations dans les pays voisins.

Les "reonnaissances" du terrain par plusieurs ministres restent symboliques aussi longtemps qu'il n'y a pas de projet mobilisateur. Bruxelles, souffre déjà d'une réputation"crasse, brutalisme, pavés et petits travaux". Il est temps de tourner  la page . Les commentaire de W.G.Sebald dans son roman "Les Anneaux de Saturne" font mal parce qu'ils sont pertinents, hélas. Baudelaire a ses disciples.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

THE RIFLE THAT DIDN'T FIRE.......fortunately

While Trump played his usual golf, he was stalked by an individual armed with a SKS semi-automatic rifle. The would-be shooter left a couple of bags on the fence which surrounds the golf course. A security guard noticed and he was arrested in due course. He has a somewhat blurred, contradictory record and is under arrest.

That he could get so close, carrying an assault weapon shouldn't come as a surprise since in certain states of the Union people walk their guns like their dogs. As could be expected, the MAGA crowd went ballistic and yet again nuance was the loser. President Biden called Trump and showed that his diminishing more persuasive powers did not come at the price of his responsibility as president and...gentleman. So did the vice-president.

The Republicans who are on the defensive try to capitalize on this incident, accusing the Democrats for the weaponization of the political discourse. This is ironic coming from the MAGA  Stormtruppe, who have taken the last remnants of a democratic  discourse hostage. There is no real Republican party any longer. Trump likes to give the role of Cruella de Vil to women he feels close too:  Kellyanne Conway, Sarah Huckabee and now Laura Loomer, probably the worse of this unattractive deranged lot.

Whatever the outcome of the elections, the future looks grim. There will certainly be an ugly aftermath. The MAGA crowd will fight if they lose and destroy if they win. Justice (with this Supreme Court) will be under attack, since Trump will still be a convicted felon. One way or another, all elements are put in place to contest, break or otherwise attack by all means till the "deep state" is defeated.

November will be gloomy, whoever wins. The Electoral College game is the cherry on the MAGA pie. The coming winter of discontent might as well be a season to beware of.

Monday, September 16, 2024

LES FORMATIONS EN BELGIQUE

Après les élections d'aucuns espérènt des formations rapides. Seuls les Wallons y sont parvenus. Flandre,Bruxelles,Fédération Bruxelles /Wallonie (c'est quoi ?), Fédéral attendent...La Belgique n'arrive plus à comprendre cet assemblage de pouvoirs, de paliers et de ministres, en surnombre. Les négotiateurs cherchent la quadrature du cercle dans une incompréhension générale. C'est à pleurer...

Tout le monde défend sa parcelle tandis que l'ensemble - finance, économie, défense, environnement, climat- qui devrait mobiliser une créativité "aérée" recule devant des priorités souvent sous-régionales.

Le Premier Ministre, en affaires courantes, boude. Bien que personne ne regrette son gouvernement, il a été une personnalité appréciée. Il lui manquait pourtant le savoir faire de son père.

Le formateur aura difficile à trouver des personnalités pour occuper des responsabilités-cléf  pour les Finances, l'Economie, la Défense, la Santé, les Affaires Etrangères, l'Environnement, entre autres. Il faut espérer que les chefs de parti n'interfèrent pas trop dans la composition d'une équipe qui doit prioritairement répondre au chef de gouvernement. L'impétuosité  de Gerorges Louis Boucher doit être controlée. Le pays n'est pas Mons.

Il est paradoxal de voir Bart De Wever dans le rôle de rassembleur. Il a pour lui l'intelligence et l'autorité. Encore faudra-t-il qu'il assume une dimension internationale ou mieux qu'il la réactive. Depuis Spaak et Dehaene, la Belgique a perdu sa crédibilité. Le choix de personnalités intellectuellement créatives pour occuper  des fonctions stratégiques est primordial.

Le modèle qui a été imposé au pays est aussi absurde que couteux. Le formateur qui porte pourtant une part de responsabilité dans ce "brol" est paradoxalement le mieux placé  pour en corriger les égarements.

Saturday, September 14, 2024

TRUMP / Vance / CATS and DOGS

Trump's last "trip" into some Lewis Carroll-type of fantasy is relentless. His narrative has become so grotesque that more serious observers start to wonder if there is, perhaps, a strategy lurking in this pool of relentless madness.

The MAGA crowd loves it. The Republican leftovers shun it. The Democrats try to make sense of his view of America, wherein illegals feast on dogs and cats (and ducks) that are stolen from the god-abiding citizens in the heartland. His equally bizarre running mate J.D.Vance is busy imagining some Orwellian fantasy society divided in sociological strata of cat ladies, singles, grandparents, illegals, with specific tasks, allocations or often drastic punishment.

Trump has a soft spot for the charms of Orban. Le Pen starts to sound and act almost rational in comparison. It is tempting to consider his verbal outings as fodder but there might be a strategy in this. As much as Robert Kennedy Jr. pretends to have been victim of a worm that got in his brain, Trump unleashed legions of earworms in the midst of his braindead MAGA crowd. His flock doesn't react to the Antony Blinken/Michel Barnier style. Neither have unflattering outings by lonely Republicans have any effect. The image of the sinner descending his gilded escalator sticks with the believers.

Kamala Harris still considers herself the underdog. She is right because the feeling of joy and relief is not something that affects the terminally sick, who cling to fraudulent prescriptions, god and guns. Trump has been compared to Hitler. Wrong, the Fuhrer was intelligent and the evil he orchestrated was chillingly efficient. At the onset his fans were found in all government circles in Europe and the USA. Trump's bombast is more Mussolini-like although the Duce, till Munich, showed a historical (flawed) short-lived sophistication. Trump is a narcissist who will never inspire art or literature. No need to look elsewhere for his image than in the gutter.

The French have a tradition of critical vivisection. Today's Emily in Paris gives a totally fake image of a society lost in clothes, cholesterol and not amusing bons môtsThe sex comes easy, after all that is supposed to be as French as the baguetteThere is another France that specializes in the nouveau: from Beaujolais, cuisine, to philosophes.  The political, often brilliant, bitchy commentators reduce Trump to an American amuse-bouche, that is as indigestible as the American meal that will follow. Maybe, but the ache will not disappear with an Alka Selzer.

Trump is a man of the past, with a Hugh Heffner problem, a gaudy taste and a humorless family out of an Addams Family sitcom. If he were president again, the world might as well run for cover. His major announcements are frightening and his Freudian obsession with "strong" leaders betray more insecurity than self-confidence. He cannot stand Kamala Harris because she is all he is not:  fun, smart, cynical, creative, American in the tradition of Ernst Lubitch, Billy Wilder, Lauren Weisberger, Gore Vidal.

There is hope for cats and dogs after the elections. The cat ladies and grandparents will breathe, childless couples will no longer be stigmatized. People will feel free to walk their own path. America can regroup...maybe.

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

KAMALA HARRIS ' MASTERCLASS

Yesterday's debate was almost cruel, leaving Trump reduced to his usual fodder of lies.

Obviously America is "no country for old men". The previous debate became Biden's nightmare. This last debate left Trump an old man, unable to recognize the "traps" the Vice-President had in store. It is not hard to find out what rattles the ego of a self-obsessed neurotic individual who forgets the "lay" of whatever stands before him, as soon as he senses that the image of himself might be under attack.

Kamala Harris appeared the better prepared, the rightly informed, blessed with a sense of humor that slipped here and there into sarcasm. Since his inauguration eight years ago, Trump continues the same old story line about immigration and the decline of America. He is unable to enter introspection or a soliloquy since he became the warden of his persona.

The Vice-President talked for an American audience, knowing very well that the world at large was listening in. She projected a fierce assurance and a clear commitment, marking a return to the classical, experienced diplomatic toolbox, in full cooperation with allies. Trump couldn't resist another gaffe, bringing his "romance" with Orban to the fore. His illusions regarding his dealings with Putin are almost endearing.

Europeans will swap their sighs for an ah of relief. Others are on notice that America is back to normal. Taylor Swift had better hire more body guards...

If the trend continues one might hope for a Harris/Walz win in November. What will the MAGA commandos do? Given Trump's deranged mindset, it is better to prepare for the worse scenarios.

One should not forget that Biden is still president, fortunately. In every scenario he can be counted on for a gracious exit or for a muscled control,  so that things don't get out of hand. Most of all he should be thanked for a finish line where there are more achievements than failures.

Monday, September 2, 2024

HADJA LAHBIB ...HISTOIRE BELGE

Les tribulations autour de la désignation du commissaire Belge à la Commission de l'UE apportent une nouvelle fois une autre péripétie à la trop longue liste de gaffes, dont ce pays a le monopole.

Madame Lahbib, ministre des affaires étrangères, désignée, était déjà oubliée, avant mème de devoir quitter une fonction dans un Ministère qui ne l'a jamais appréciée. Il est vrai qu'elle reste tête de liste MR pour les élections communales à Schaerbeek.

Georges-Louis Bouchez président du MR a commencé son trajet politique en se faisant passer pour une personnalité providentielle. On a vite remarqué qu'il était surtout remuant et brouillon. Il a néanmoins réussi à désenclaver la Wallonie de l'étreinte socialiste, responsable des problèmes structurels qui ont enfoncé la région dans une stagnation permanente. Il eut peut-être mieux fallu qu'il se calme et qu'il règna sur Mons, plutôt que de prétendre être le "faiseur" à Bruxelles.

Bon, voilà Ursula van der Leyen obligée de trouver un portefeuille pour une candidate qui n'a pas l'étoffe. A l'instar d'autres partis, le MR est devenu anémique. La mouvance libérale a pourtant compté  des personnalités hors pair dans ses rangs. Armand De Decker était sans doute le dernier grand libéral. Didier Reynders, grand sacrifié, est une personnalité remarquable.

Déjà on oublie qu'il y a encore un Premier Ministre et un gouvernement. C'est dire combien l'ingratitude sévit.  Si Alexander De Croo est déjà gommé , Madame Labhib n'a jamais existé. 

Ce choix peu providentiel est une nouvelle preuve du provincialime des chefs de parti en Belgique qui n'arrivent plus à envisager un ailleurs autre que leur intérèt propre. Au demeurant leur influence et pouvoir vont à l'encontre de la lettre et de l'esprit de la constitution.

Dire que la Belgique a compté dans le passé des personnalités d'envergure, type Dehaene, laisse morose. Il faut que la relève se manifeste et que Thomas Dermine ne s'enterre pas à Charleroi...

Saturday, August 31, 2024

WHAT IS AT STAKE IN THE USA

In the EU many member states have entered a period of major potential turmoil. Besides the usual suspects--Hungary and Slovakia--other major normal players start to show political metal fatigue. The eastern part of Germany suffers from a far- right fever and France's Macron is losing his touch, after the calamitous elections which sent France back to the days of the Fourth Republic.

These and other more structural problems are happening when the US is in full electoral mode. The outcome of the American presidential election will cast a shadow or light over the world. Seldom has the choice been so existential. Trump is a paranoid liar who will stop at nothing to appease his sick ego. Impervious to culture or truth he has no sympathy for Europe or for democratic precedent. One can only expect some other pas de deux with the likes of Putin and Kim Jong Un. Kamala Harris is the right candidate for the right moment in history. She is not perfect, who is. She comes with reliability and the proper mindset to continue the "American experiment" and rejuvenate the Atlantic spirit.

One should be conscious of the challenges that confront the world by way of America. Democracy is on the ballot. If the Americans were to make the wrong choice, the demise of the values and the ambition elsewhere would be immediate. President Biden became an aging leader for sure but he stood firm on an agenda of progressive liberty and sound for all, in America and abroad.

There are too many situations--climate, finance, energy, human rights for all, peace and reconciliation, attention needed for the forgotten wars, violence, rules, free commerce--wherein nothing is a substitute for the American input. Does anyone think that Trump knows what happens in Sudan, Myanmar or Yemen? ...that he understands the workings of the IMF, World Bank or the EU? He doesn't respect the laws that support the Supreme Court or protect the transparency of the US elections. The January 6 storming of the Capitol four years ago is already a scenario foretold for tomorrow. The MAGA storm troupes are readied.

Normal America is under attack by a duo of freaks (Trump's choice for vice-president fits into a chapter of Germany in the late '30s). It is clear that whatever the result of the elections, there will be trouble and it is going to be ugly. Kamala Harris will be ready but contrary to her adversary she is human, which makes her more vulnerable for sure, but also so much more attractive. At the end of the day and of argument, there is nothing wrong with the choice of the attractive over the ugly.

Friday, August 23, 2024

KAMALA HARRIS

Les conventions des Républicains et des Démocrates sont un phénomène américain que l'on subit, sans réel engagement. Pourtant cette dernière convention démocrate a connu des moments forts, qui avaient comme une qualité d'exorcisme. On ne se rend pas assez compte de la menace, réelle ou imaginaire, qu'un retour de Trump fait peser sur l'Amérique. Les scénarios les plus extravagants occupent et préoccupent, créant un climat politique malsain, nourri et augmenté par une réelle cabale de l'extrème droite. En réalité le parti républicain a vécu.

Kamala Harris est une personnalité hors-pair. Elle a réussi a torpiller le scénario apocalyptique du déclin américain. Le narcissisme de Trump a conduit les Républicains à se mobiliser autour d'un algorithme bancal . Kamala Harris réussit a les ébranler avant de les assommer.

Elle a fait carrière dans la haute magistrature en Californie. Celà lui procure une expérience directe des maux, des travers et des problèmes de société en général. Son milieu familial est aussi une référence intelectuelle majeure. Elle est manifestement une femme de caractère, ouverte à  la générosité comme à l'humour. En tant que Vice-Présidente elle a du ressentir le poids de l'age de Biden, qui devenait sans doute envieux de la popularité naissante de son numero deux, alors qu'il devenait de plus en plus le Roi Lear de Shakespeare. L'âge est un nauffrage...

Il faut espérer qu'elle s'entoure de personnalités comme l'actuel Secrétaire d'Etat Antony Blinken, le gouverneur de la Pennsylvanie Josh Shapiro, ou le Secrétaire au transport, Pete Buttigieg. Le choix du gouverneur du Minnesota, Tim Waltz,comme co-listier surprend mais a des mérites indiscutables. Au demeurant il ajoute le normal à l'exceptionnel.

Les Européens, et d'autres, se félicitent de voir le spectre de Trump devenir soudain plus incertain, voir mème moins probable. Trop est en jeu pour courir le risque de devoir considérer les caprices d' un apprenti-sorcier sans normes, sans scrupules et sans culture élémentaire.

On peut espérer que l'Amérique retrouve son optimisme et ses "better angels". Pour Kamala Harris la pente de l'automne sera raide. Les troupes républicaines et Fox News  se mobilisent déjà. Trump ignore le faire-play.

Kim Jong Un vocifère déjà. C'est bon signe.

Sunday, August 18, 2024

ALAIN DELON

La mort d'Alain Delon ...c'est Rocco qui nous quitte pour toujours.

Cet homme avait ses ambiguités certes, mais il est resté le dernier dépositaire du "frisson français".

Plein soleil, le Guépard, le Samourai nous confrontent à un homme qui n'a pas du voler la beauté au diable puisqu'il en était l'unique dépositaire.


Wednesday, August 14, 2024

HERMAN BRUSSELMANS

Vlamingen maken geen goede beurt,.

Jan Jambon had het over "Vlaamse medailles"in Parijs.

Jan Peumans staat klaar voor een Suske en Wiske "remake".

Zuhal Demir volgt een hearttrob cursus  (good luck).

Herman Busselmans kan Erelid worden van de Vlaamse North fanatics en opnieuw een ander ongenietbare roman opdringen aan zijn achtererban.

Tom Lanoye, Kevin De Bruyne en Sanda Dia kozen wijselijk voor "elders"...Blijft nog Ben Weyts over, voor wie op dit type valt.

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

KAMALA'S CHOICE

Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota is Kamala's pick for vice- president. 

It is doubtful that this "tame" selection will stir hearts and minds. The governor might surprise but he looks surprisingly old fashioned, almost Truman-like. Given the unforgiving scrutiny of the Republicans, he must have been vetted over and over. This doesn't make him exciting. He will not steal the limelight or come up with an over-intellectual message. Maybe his apparent banality is his persuasive added-value, given that the GOP chose chaos candidates.

Other names, in the first place Governor Shapiro from Pennsylvania, might have created an unstoppable momentum. But so be it, Mr. Everyman was chosen over Mr. Somebody. The applause will follow, or not...

Kamala Harris is a sophisticated politician. Her reading of public opinion might have led her to choose the normal over the exceptional. Besides, two exceptionals might have led to an overcrowded ticket. Since JFK, Americans know too well that the top is more a marriage of political calculus than a love match. Marriages of mutual convenience, a European special, often have a longer timespan than unions based on rapture.

It is too early to judge, but the fizzle ain't there even when the Midwestern thing is supposed to be "in". Governor Walz comes with a persuasive record after all, even as his name is not known yet in Vienna or elsewhere. In today's America one should not try to chase too many innuendos or undercurrents. Everything has become very elementary.

Friday, August 2, 2024

L' EFFET KAMALA

Le retrait du Président Biden ne doit pas faire oublier qu'il reste en charge, heureusement. Devant la possible dérive au Moyen Orient, une approche globale, informée des problèmes politiques dans le monde reste essentielle. Au demeurant, l'échange de prisonniers entre les Etats Unis et la Russie confirme le valeur ajoutée d'une diplomatie informée et irremplaçable.

Le tandem de délinquants républicains devrait être placé sous haute surveillance, à Charenton. Trump ne parvient plus à maitriser un tempérament franchement vulgaire et impropre à gouverner. Son candidat Vice-Président semble vouloir mettre les piéds dans tous les plats à la fois. Le parti républicain n'existe plus. Reste une secte.

Survient Kamala Harris, actuellement Vice-présidente. Alors qu'elle est restée longtemps dans l'ombre de Biden, déontologie (celà existe encore) oblige, elle se trouve aujourd'hui sous le feu des projecteurs. On découvre une femme extraordinaire, un talent irréfutable et une sophistication hors commun. Les démocrates reprennent espoir et les troupes de Trump se retrouvent désarçonnées. Elle a le génie d'enrager Trump et d'imposer un ton et une teneur qui rappellent les beaux jours d'Obama. Elle a l'ambition d'être le porte-parole du réveil américain.

Le monde observe. La Russie et la Chine suivent de prês, les BRICS s'interrogent, l'Europe espère. Beaucoup aux Etats-Unis veulent y croire. Kamala devra encore maitriser un tempérament trop activé par l'immédiat, sans pour autant permettre que d'autres éléments , opportunistes, arrivent à troubler une trajectoire rectiligne.

Il reste que Biden mérite l'estime de tous. Les "insultes" de Trump ne devraient jamais être tolérée . Dans cette nuit de l'age/naufrage, seul le respect doit prévaloir. 

Il est difficile de prévoir quel sera le choix de Kamala comme son vice-président. Il est trop tôt pour Buttigieg (The ideal candidate) mais il n'est pas trop tard pour quelques gouverneurs haut de gamme, type Shapiro (Pennsylvania) ou Kelly(Arizona).

La convention démocrate pourra en définitive être un exercise ou la reconnaissance pour les accomplissements passés annoncera l'avènement d'un meilleur demain, pour les Etats-Unis et pour le monde.

Friday, July 26, 2024

THE TRUMP BULLET

Some bullets are (in)famous. Some are linked to the first world war (Sarajevo), to epic grief (President Kennedy), to Opera ( Freichutz ), to Agatha Christie (A Murder is Announced) wherein a bullet is supposed to have grazed an ear...and didn't.

Trump & Co. are a strange lot. From his parents on, this clan looks cursed, some corrupting everything that crosses their path. The former president turned lies and vulgarity into some form of trademark.

Now we encounter another ear story. We got Van Gogh, Beethoven, i.a., and now the many stories popping up regarding the "attempt on the former president's life". Some aspects are almost a copycat from the assassination of JFK: an uninteresting suspect, bullet(s) that raise more questions than leading to answers, finally, leaving the FBI and the Secret Service embarrassed.

Trump is cursed. Most Americans doubt, rightly so, most if not everything he argues. His demeanor, both with others and with facts, is a permanent walk on the dark side. He ceases the moment, the optics, the correction. When he was "shot" he took immediately command of the image that drives now the MAGA crowd in a frenzy. 

Like in Agatha Christie, the distraction hides the path of the bullet.

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

THE KAMALA HARRIS EFFECT

In a fortnight everything changed in America. Trump suddenly shows his age. The Trump women appear hopelessly out of touch with today's demands and requirements. Vance represents noise over substance. The usual "entourage" fell on their face, like Rudy Giuliani...pathetic.

Kamala Harris will be a formidable contender. If she were to consider Pete Buttigieg as running mate she would create the dream team that many Americans only dared to imagine.

President Biden made a historic decision in accepting the toll of age over the lure of four more years. He has been a great president and his decline must have felt like the ultimate affront. Still, his withdrawal shouldn't be confused with quitting.

The Democrats were given a miraculous alternative. They had better come to terms with the scenario wherein the better intentions now have the opportunity to continue or improve the many achievements of the Biden administration.

As long as there is Trump, America is undone home and abroad. He has been compared to other unsavory figures, current and past, but at the end of the day, his vicious vulgarity has no precursor. If he were to lose the presidential election he would appear even more pathetic and, yes, very old indeed.

Kamala Harris is smart. Hence she knows that there are not enough containers to carry the insults and lies that the Trump machine is already loading. Likewise the last months of the Biden presidency might be painful to watch, since the Republican handbook doesn't make room for correct behavior or truth. She will rally all who have a social and intellectual fiber. They are the new silent majority eager to raise their voice and to embrace the idea of a country again at peace with itself. 

Suddenly the world will pay close attention to this other American drama. Countries that respect the United States will support Kamala Harris. The ones that don't better be counted for future reference.

Friday, July 19, 2024

SOMETHING IS ROTTEN IN THE USA (MY APOLOGIES TO SHAKESPEARE)

While the Democrats watch Ionesco's play Exit the King, the Republicans chose to perform in some sort of Marat/Sade revival, made accessible to the deplorables. Trump rose, Biden sank.

The Republican show in Milwaukee was nauseating.  What was said by Trump, vice-president nominee Vance or Peter Navarro is frankly frightening. The histrionics of Hulk Hogan and others set the general tone of another "carnage" of manners. The prominent Trump women were all modelled in the cabinet of Dr. Caligari.

One should not underestimate this freaky appropriation by the Republicans of everything that appeals to the less recommendable instincts. Biden's sad Untergang gave Trump a window he gladly smashed. The Democrats are in panic while nothing moves their camp besides some polite questioning stuck between an irretrievable past and what appears to be an inescapable terrible future.

It shouldn't be like that, since the Democrats have the better program and good candidates. The President has done a sterling job. One wonders why he would risk all that out of a sudden stubborn misplaced pattern of behavior that is self-defeating.

The world is watching with glee, or in panic. Europeans would be left to their own devices under a second Trump term. The world at large could enter into some apocalypse of trade wars , migration mayhem, and religious aberration, à l'américaine.  One should beware of generalizations. There is something rotten in America, indeed, but Europe as well deals with its own "old right", with uneven success. The reality remains that more Americans believe in generosity, progress, culture, than the screamers heard in Milwaukee. The better actors are ready but the stage has to be readied...asap.


Sunday, July 14, 2024

IS THE TRUMP ATTACK ANTIETHICAL TO AMERICA ?

Trump knows how to bend events and circumstance to his advantage.

After yesterday's assassination attempt the former president's ear is already more famous than Van Gogh's. 

He also has the genius to twist events to his advantage. His defiance in pain and shock, his instinct for body language, might already have won him the upcoming presidential election. Imagine Biden in a similar circumstance?

More seriously, America's addiction to guns is sick. Trump's own dubious relationship with the gun lobby came home to roost. Tragically, the vicious macho allure of weaponry is spreading. The most peaceful or placid places everywhere are no longer spared from this other scourge.

In America the fools, the deplorables and the corrupt can now coalesce around their new martyr. Biden might end up looking even older than he is. Yesterday's bullet might well become Trump's unforeseen masterstroke.

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

AMERICA : THE THEME OF KING LEAR IS THE DECAY AND FALL OF THE WORLD (JAN KOTT)

President Biden can look back on many years of public service. His personal life has often been a confrontation with very personal tragedy. As president he tried, often convincingly, to renew the contrat social with all Americans.

Obviously all this comes at a price for an aging man. It is normal that his relative decline has become a factor, also in the perception others can have or are aware of. The accelerated physical toll is for all to see. Increased mental deterioration is perverse. It affects behavior and also better judgement.

President Biden is obviously frustrated and can sound upset, entering a zone of rasher judgement and overreactive pique. Instead of rallying respect and consideration, he ends up alienating his own deserved support. His entering in the danger zone of shrill denial only increases the King Lear narrative about an old man, often out of touch and unable to listen.

If he were to show more self-control and were able to normalize the overall perception, he would reassure the alerted observers. Democrats would still be willing to give him four more years. But on the contrary, the angry denial and repetitive corrections coming from his entourage are over-invasive. He listens too much to his inner circle and not enough to the well-meaning others who only want to save him from humiliation.

His opponent is smart enough to let Biden auto-destruct. Soon,  the Democrats will be out of time to pick another candidate. 

All this might lead yet again to an inglorious ending and four years of upheaval in America, and added trouble world-wide.


Monday, July 8, 2024

FRANCE : LE VERTIGE DE L' HEMICYCLE

Les élections législatives en France ont accouché d'un cube Rubic. Le président pourrait se retrouver bien seul, confronté à un résultat pervers. La gauche est majoritaire, la droite est sortie dernière et la mouvance Macron se retrouve entre deux chaises. 

En réalité la situation est plus compliquée que les résultats ne le laissent paraitre. Dans le camps Macron les interrogations et frustrations sont nombreuses. L'amour propre de plusieurs, à commencer pas son premier ministre, a encaissé des coups. La gauche a fait barrage contre Le Pen mais une fois le résultat acquis elle ne s'entend sur rien. Au demeurant le succès relatif du RN ne saurait être sous-estimé .

Reste que le président se retrouve sans majorité. On est en droit de s'interroger sur ce qui a conduit Macron à prendre une décision risquée. Aprés les élections européennes décevantes il eut été normal de faire l'économie d'un nouveau dérapage.

Il n'est pas possible de prévoir la suite. La gauche risque gros car ce front "populaire nouveau" avec Mélenchon et un programme suranné n'est pas viable. La droite s'est mise hors-jeu. Le parti Renaissance du président est un second honorable mais numériquement insuffisant comme support.

D'aucuns parlent déjà d'une impasse et d'un scénario d'instabilité. C'est faire peu de cas de l'intelligence politique du pays. De toute évidence il faudra laisser du temps pour que la classe politique se ressaisisse . Cette élection de choc met aussi en lumière la valeur ajoutée que représente la France sur le plan international. Il est capital pour l'Union européenne que son timonier essentiel reste à la barre.

A l'intérieur, les forces centrifuges ne désarmeront pas. Le président Macron sait qu'il y a péril en la demeure. Le temps de l'hémicycle dosé, prémédité n'est plus.

Saturday, July 6, 2024

JAMAIS DEUX SANS TROIS ?

Le président Biden est mal conseillé. Eu égard à son parcours, on pouvait encore imaginer qu'il réussirait à faire oublier sa mauvaise forme lors du premier débat présidentiel. Il n'en est rien. Les couacs se multiplient. Il devient urgent d'assumer la réalité. Continuer ne fait qu'aggraver un déficit inquiétant. On ne gagne pas avec un surcis. Kamala Harris est la meilleure alternative, coté talent, persuasion et familiarité avec les problèmes. Elle changerait les accents mais le texte resterait le mème.

Deuxième victime, le parti conservateur en Angleterre qui git par terre. Les Travaillistes remportent une victoire électorale historique. C'était attendu mais l'ampleur de la déconvenue des Conservateurs est énorme. Que Farage ait aussi réussi à être élu démontre que le Brexit a ses opposants certes, mais qu'il garde aussi ses alliés. Keir Starmer a devant lui une tâche énorme, surtout eu égard à l'existence de courants contradictoires au sein de la nouvelle majorité.

Reste le vote français dimanche. Macron a été un acteur politique extraordinaire, renouant avec une vision et une ambition ne plus observées depuis de Gaulle. Il a été la référence unique et inconditionnelle pour une nouvelle Europe. Sans doute l'engouement rencontré a-t-il  bénéficié de l'air de routine de la commission de Bruxelles, comme de la grisaille émanant de Berlin.

En résumé, deux mousquetaires connus sont fragilisés ou KO, le troisième sortira affaibli, mème si les troupes de Madame Le Pen n'obtiennent pas la majorité absolue.

Devant la multiplication des lézardes dans l'habitat occidental, le camps Poutine/ Xi § Co observe. Les observateurs ailleurs se garderont bien de se prononcer alors que le temps devient de plus en plus incertain. L'ombre de Trump est menaçante.  Il faut bien reconnaitre qu'il réussit à être présent sans grand effort personnel mais avec des appuis judicieusement mobilisés. Les Sturmtruppe républicains sont dès à présent préparés.

L'Occident risque d'entrer dans une période de remise en question dans laquelle les divisions fondamentales auront libre cours.

Sunday, June 30, 2024

LE BOOMERANG , MACRON MADE

Il fallait s'y attendre, la droite est sortie gagnante du premier tour des élections législatives en France. 

La clarification demandée par le président Macron n'a pas obéi au scenario souhaité. Il est trop tôt pour prédire l'issue du deuxième tour, mais il est dès à présent certain que l'engouement Cartésien des Français a pris un coup. Les lignes de démarcation politiques du passé récent n'existent plus. Les triangulaires s'additionnent. Indépendamment du score final, plusieurs des proches du président ne lui pardonneront pas un pari , qui apparait de plus en plus extravagant. Au sein mème de sa mouvance les couteaux sont tirés.

La France rejoint désormais le peleton des fustrés, majoritaires en Europe. Le premier ministre sortant fait figure de sacrifié. Plusieurs manataires Macronistes se demandent quelle mouche a piqué un président qui excéllait dans la confiance en soi.

Le deuxieme tour peut donner une indication plus certaine des nouveaux (dés)équilibres mais il est dès à présent certain qu'un style de gouverner est mort. Celà est inquiétant pour l'Europe, qui se retrouve sans ancrage. Celà risque aussi d'avoir des conséquences plus larges, surtout si la France devait une nouvelle fois entrer en période de cohabitation.

Restent le Royaume Uni ou l'alternance est déjà annoncée et l'Italie qui étonne sans convaincre. 

Il y a donc danger en la demeure, d'autant plus que le roi américain est souffrant. La face cachée du monde s'organise. La face (trop) visible craque.

Friday, June 28, 2024

USA : A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES, MAGA AND THE OTHER.

A lot is being said about the first presidential debate. The courageous who followed the candidates to the bitter end learned nothing new. Trump was his usual self: lying, insulting and unreliable. Biden confirmed for all to see that he is old.

Neither came up with an idea or strategy for the years to come amidst an increasingly ungovernable world. The lack of vision or creative thought is undeniable. Compared to the political debate in Europe, this boring spectacle does nothing to elevate the tenure, quite the contrary.

Many in the Democratic rank and file wish for an alternative, given that President Biden is becoming, in the eyes of part of that establishment, almost a liability. Given his record, this is unfair. He is a good president but not a gifted salesman. If he can regroup and find a rejuvenated gravitas remains to be seen.

A Trump presidency, with this Supreme Court, is equal to tempting the devil. The Fox News witches are preparing a brew that is ominous. Bannon, Navarro, Miller & Co. are working on a roadmap that would shake the world. At a time wherein many Western democracies suffer self-inflicted vagaries, America should avoid some doomsday Goya-type of scenario. Trump has the energy and the spite to unleash the Valkyries upon the country, and the world. 

There is only an aging man between doom and the frail expectation that the worse scenario can still be stopped. History shows how the better option is often overtaken once the lure of the alternative chaos overrules the better voices.

One had better pray for the aging man to receive the support from all those who want dignity to prevail. His voice doesn't carry too far anymore. A good reason to listen more.

Tuesday, June 18, 2024

FRANCE : PARI/ BLUFF/ RISQUE/ ENJEU

Le président Emmanuel Macron a surpris tout le monde, y compris ses proches, en prenant la décision d'organiser des élections législatives anticipées. Il s'agit là d'un véritable "coup" qui a surpris tout le monde. Après des élections européennes décevantes il entend ainsi pouvoir arrêter la dérive .Son pari est audacieux. Il laisse les observateurs perplexes. Son premier ministre court le risque de voir sa fulgurante ascension coupée court.







 





Le président est un tacticien redoutable mais d'aucuns pensent qu'il risque de juger mal une opinion publique qui commence à considérer que le chef d'état est isolé dans sa superbe intellectuelle. Celà est injuste eu égard à la situation dans laquelle se trouve l'Europe. La France n' a pas de partenaire et il est donc normal qu'elle devienne plus visible. Elle est comme la nature, et sans doute a-t-elle horreur du vide. L'Allemagne boude et l'Italie ne fait pas le poids. Cette derniere attend aussi de voir quel sera le score au final en France avant de considérer d'accorder les violons.

Si la droite devait gagner et que la cohabitation devienne inévitable, un pouvoir partagé conduirait immédiatement à des tensions déstabilisatrices  et à terme, risquées. L'hypothèse de Jordan Bardella Premier Ministre inquiète la bourse et les garants d'une politique solidaire agréee dans des domaines essentiels, Union Européenne, Otan, Ukraine, Moyen Orient etc. qui n'ont vraiment pas besoin d'un apprenti sorcier.

Certes le pouvoir "occupé" diffère du pouvoir "réclamé". Giorgia Meloni au Palazzo Chigi n'est pas la mème que la candidate avant les élections. Madame Le Pen a déjà mis beaucoup d'eau dans son vin et risque d'en rajouter si son parti sortait vainqueur. Il faut garder la tête froide. 

On est néanmoins en droit de se demander ce qui a pu convaicre  le président Macron (et le premier ministre anglais) à préférer l'anticipation à la stratégie du "calendrier". Si Macron sort gagnant il sera une nouvelle fois comparé à Napoléon. S'il perd il sera un homme seul et nombreux seraient ceux qui ne lui pardonneront pas d'avoir saboté leur carrière et ambition.

Les jeux olympiques à Paris promettent d'être extraordinaires. Il faut espérer que l'engouement qu'ils créeront n'arrive pas avec un épitaphe pour un bluff raté.


Thursday, June 13, 2024

THE G7 SHOWS ITS AGE

The G7 meets again in Italy. This gathering shows more age and fatigue than stamina. All the leaders show various degrees of angst and age. Only Italy's PM shows resilience and self- confidence. 

In the past the G8, later on the G7, were the envy of the world. Today most of the members who still manage to stay awake fight for political survival. Ms. Meloni must feel some Schadenfreude while presiding over that lot of tomorrow's losers.

Other gatherings appear. China and Russia did not stay idle and the upcoming countries snub yesterday's elite class and come up with their own brand of financial and trade strategies. They are relieved to leave the hot spots in the hands of countries that feel like they should do something, while at the same time being taken hostage by debt, inflation, an aging population, climate change.

Former fora where new ideas could be tested have lost their appeal. The Club of Rome or Davos are yesterday's jewels in the crown, ignored by the rising tide that the new ebullient economies call home. The shaky political situations France, the UK, Germany, Canada, Japan have ended up with, are creating a lugubrious narrative. Ukraine and Gaza weight also on the intellectual space which got cramped accordingly. There is just not enough room left for innovation or bold initiatives which could help the G7 recover the lost ground.

At the end of the day one has to admit that the more appealing initiatives that might seduce countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil and upcoming economies worldwide, no longer pertain to the classical arsenal of the G7. China's road and belt initiative has overtaken all. The dollar has become a currency on the defensive. Africa snubs France. The Commonwealth is mothballed.

Giorgia Meloni is surrounded by tomorrow's have-beens. This shrewd politician must savour the moment, while in France the ultra right is likewise waiting for the cohabitation, a dream for a few, a nightmare for many. Anyway if Trump would be the next US president, the G7 had better be packing. The presence of the Pope at this week's meeting doesn't add to the relevance of this sputtering gathering, quite the contrary, it further increases its irrelevance. Remember Stalin and the Pope..