CRIME AND PUNISHMENT

LAST WEEK WAS EXTRAORDINARY.   FOR THE FIRST TIME PERHAPS, THE RUSSIANS WERE ABLE TO PREACH TO THE AMERICANS ON THEIR OWN TURF.  NOT ONLY COULD PUTIN DIMINISH OBAMA'S STATURE AT HOME AND ABROAD, BUT HE WAS ABLE TO STEAL THE NARRATIVE AND TO IMPOSE HIS OWN THERAPY IN THE SYRIAN SAGA. THE  "RED LINE" THREAT BECAME (UNFORTUNATELY) AN EMPTY SOPHISM. THE USE OF U.S. "PINPRICKS" AGAINST ASSAD ARE THE BUTT OF MISPLACED JOKES AND SCEPTICISM.
THE SECRETARY OF STATE APPEARS TO CONSORT WITH CONTRADICTIONS.

ALL THIS WAS DONE BY A COUNTRY WITH A DISMAL RECORD ON HUMAN RIGHTS, WHICH RESCUED A CLIENT STATE THAT HAS PERFECTED THE USE OF LIES AND TERROR, SECOND TO NONE.  ASSAD HAS GOTTEN A BOOST AND GIVING UP (?) CHEMICAL WEAPONS COMES EASY AS HE HAS AN OVERWHELMING ADVANTAGE AGAINST AN INSURGENCY WHICH IS DISTRUSTED AND INFILTRATED BY UNRELIABLE ELEMENTS.  JORDAN, TURKEY, EGYPT, LEBANON, THE GULF STATES, ISRAEL, INTER ALIA, MUST TAKE NOTICE AND ARE TAUGHT A LESSON IN CYNICAL OR INCOMPETENT JUGGLING. THE FRENCH AND THE BRITISH WILL THINK TWICE FROM NOW ON BEFORE SUPPORTING A PLIABLE ALLY.  AMERICAN PRESTIGE IS AT A LOW POINT.  THE PRESIDENT HAS ALIENATED ALMOST EVERYBODY.

THE U.S./RUSSIAN DEAL MIGHT WORK OUT IN THE END, ON CONDITION THAT ASSAD FEELS THE HEAT.  IF IT DOES WORK, THE RUSSIANS WILL HAVE CASHED IN A DIPLOMATIC COUP.  CONVERSELY, THE UNITED STATES IS ALREADY PERCEIVED WITH SUSPICION IF NOT A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF DISBELIEF. OBAMA CUNCTATOR' S WAYS START TO LOOM OVER HIS PRESIDENCY AND MIGHT DERAIL HIS SECOND TERM'S AMBITIONS.

ASSAD REMAINS IN CHARGE, THE SLAUGHTER CONTINUES.  TO IMAGINE THAT INSPECTION AND DESTRUCTION CAN GO ON IN SUCH AN ABNORMAL CONTEXT IS NAIVE. AS LONG AS IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH HAVE CARTE BLANCHE, ARMS WILL FLOW. THE RUSSIANS HAVE NO INTEREST IN ANY MOVE WHICH MIGHT JEOPARDIZE THEIR GEOPOLITICAL GAIN AND THEIR CLIENT STATE IN THE REGION. AFTER THE DISASTROUS TURN OF EVENTS IN CAIRO, WHICH EQUALLY IGNORED AMERICAN ADVICE, A VACUUM IS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY BEING CREATED WHICH IS A STANDING INVITATION FOR ANOTHER PARTY TO COME IN AND FILL THE GROWING VOID.

I AGREE THAT THIS IS A HIGHLY TOXIC MATTER AND THAT CAUTION IS BETTER THAN GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY IN A WORLD WHICH IS GLOBAL. THE PROBLEM IS THAT LIKE IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN THE AMERICANS SEEM TO HAVE NO OPTIONS FOR PLAN B OR ANY FOLLOW UP. THE RUSSIANS CAN AFFORD TO BE CONTENT WITH THE STATUS QUO. WASHINGTON DOES NOT NEED TO ADD DEFICITS AT HOME AND ABROAD. THE PRESIDENT LOOKS LIKE A BAD ACTOR PLAYING HAMLET BUT REMEMBER THAT THE PLAY IS A MASS KILLER AS WELL. OBAMA MUST FEEL LONELY, SURROUNDED BY THE FAITHFUL WHO ARE MORE SYCOPHANTS THAN CARRIERS OF CREATIVE, CONCEPTUAL, LONG-TERM ALTERNATIVES.  PRESIDENT BUSH WAS PRISONER OF A NEO-CONSERVATIVE AGENDA BUT HE DEFENDED IT FOR BETTER AND, ALAS, FOR WORSE. HE WAS "PREDICTABLE" TO A POINT AND WAS, PARADOXICALLY SO MAYBE, AN INDISPENSABLE PLAYER ON THE WORLD STAGE. WORLD LEADERS TEND TO AVOID UNPREDICTABLE PEERS.   PRESIDENT OBAMA'S RHETORICAL ACROBATICS HAVE BECOME UTTERLY UNCONVINCING AND HE RISKS BECOMING DISPENSABLE.   WHEN CRIMES GET A FREE RIDE, PUNISHMENT BECOMES PART OF A BOOK SELDOM READ. DOSTOEVSKY DESERVES BETTER READERSHIP THAN THE KREMLIN.