Friday, June 13, 2014


Going into the second Iraq war was a mistake and a geo-political blunder.  One unsavory dictator was routed while his fellow colleagues in other places continue their "Joseph Conrad" type of horrors, undisturbed.  Why pick Saddam who was, by the way, a most useful buffer?  WMD were a fabrication.  Gross human rights violations continue to be sanctioned a la carte, becoming a political football (sorry World Cup!).

Now we are served the leftovers of this banquet of lies. One can ask the question as to what the CIA, drones, or NSC are for if they failed to detect this advancing "oil slick" and are still wondering what to do. The Shiite and Sunni puppet-masters in the region might also end up making an already impossible ominous looking situation irreversible and carve Iraq into pieces.  President Obama is supposedly considering all options. He had better go fast since facts on the ground could stand in the way of  intervention, if it comes too late. If air strikes are considered, they should not be delayed. The terrorists will hide in urban areas or use human shields, with the negative consequences for their feasibility. The White House had better start reading Sun Tzu!  A US intervention is NOT about the fate of the corrupt government in Iraq, it is about denying a safe- haven-turned into a rogue state- to Jihadists.  Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki & Co. are just as unpalatable as the ones who preceded him and the ones who might come after.  He is a person of "no interest".

The situation is becoming alarming, since Iraq is on life support.  America is seen yet again as dragging its feet. Meanwhile, the Shiite call to arms in Iraq further inflames the sectarian/religious component. Turkey, the Saudis, the Gulf might not stand idle. Most choices Washington could consider are potentially bad ones, being considered not enough for some (the Iraqi government),  or over-reacting in the eyes of others (the Sunni states).

Americans feel uneasy. They fail to understand the workings of a White House which is felt as misunderstanding their demands and worries. They are more concerned by internal priorities but they sense, intuitively, that the role and status of the nation is under scrutiny worldwide. Washington's by now half-baked alliances look frail and the number of foes increases. The multiplying diaspora of non-actors roams now a de facto Caliphate (so much for the Sykes-Picot agreement) in the Middle East. This could easily become a launching pad for attacks against the United States. The ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) march to Baghdad looks unstoppable if urgent action is not taken by the US. Nouri al-Maliki was never credible, lacking any hint of political skill. Now he looks even worse, surrounded by more deserters than troops, his oil exports endangered and himself becoming more dependent upon an Iranian lifeline. Let us just imagine Iran and the US perceived by their Gulf and other allies (?) in the Middle East, acting in tune?

Actually America and its Western allies have themselves to blame. While a terrorist group might be able to have its own territory/country, the White House stoically proclaims that all options are on the table. The latter starts to look overcrowded after so many unwashed dishes piling up. Too many words have been said, becoming orphaned as soon as they were uttered, because of a lack of follow-up.  I bet Susan Rice is rehearsing some speaking notes for future Sunday talk shows, where she is regularly fed to the wolves. There is dignity in resigning by the way.

Tomorrow is an other day! The Vice-President is on deck in the Situation Room!  Whatever the outcome of the White House deliberations might be, it will be messy.  Pass it on to the Veep.
By the way, has anyone heard of Boko Haram lately?

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