Wednesday, April 20, 2016


Trump and Clinton won with convincing margins.  Clinton's numbers show, however, a generational divide.  She is losing the Millennials and younger voters to Sanders.  Cruz was, as could have been expected, a footnote in NY which is adverse to his "Texas persona".  Kasich or a hypothetical Mr. or Mrs. X could still be the jokers if the magic number of delegates is not reached before the Republican lemmings meet in Cleveland. 

This boring show drags on.  Trump will attempt to control his temper and act more "presidential."  Clinton will try to ignore Sanders and to baby-talk the younger voters into giving her a second look.

So the two candidates with the biggest "negatives" are coming closer to the finish. Any projection would be premature though and even if circumstances remained the same, a vote in primaries is not the same as a vote in the general election. Voters who made their preference known now might switch allegiance when their vote counts for "real".  Many Republicans might vote for the devil they dislike rather than for the one they know too well (for now). Besides, one should not forget that while Clinton is impervious to change, Trump isn't. In Rumsfeld's famous words "there are many unknowns there".

Meanwhile, the President has chosen to be elsewhere, trying to smooth the waters with the Saudis and to warn the UK against a Brexit.   Merkel will play her usual "hard to get".  His interlocutors will be polite, sans plus.

The next US president will have an almost monumental task, switching from aloofness to a more cruising altitude, avoiding both stratospheric thinking and pedestrian haste. Trump doesn't look like the ideal pilot for this recalibrating manoeuvre. Clinton can hardly go to Canossa for her past sins.  Hence, the dire straits are here to last for awhile. Most of the world finds itself moored because of economic and political turmoil. The situation might just continue, since no captain seems to be able to guide this flotilla out of trouble.

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