Saturday, February 29, 2020

IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID !

The Corona virus crisis brings out the best and the worse in people. It lays bare both the range of science but also the contemptuous face of politics.

The American liar-in-chief found nothing better than to call the situation a hoax, directed against him. As usual, Trump has zero feeling for the victims and only casts himself, uninvited, in the narrative. His coterie follows his lead, presenting this crisis as another trick directed at its great leader.

The world economy will certainly suffer consequences that are still in the making. If China were to enter in a serious structural, economic descent, the world at large would catch a cold. 

The Fed will certainly make the right adjustments to alleviate the more vicious consequences of this global turmoil. The question remains if the American economy might be hit by the Corona crisis only or if there is more at stake than meets the eye. This White House sees in Wall Street the ultimate vindication of its policies. It plays the supply-side by way of tax breaks and it weaponizes trade. The Fed follows a more cautious, orthodox path. This cool, preferred management led to a collision course with Trump who only understands charts without fine text.

Many predicted that the reckless economic demagogy of the president would sooner or later haunt him. A Wall Street meltdown was foreseen by many economists. The Corona outbreak only provided a window for the truth to come out now. This situation, arriving in an election year, leaves the White House in a pickle. Both the human cost and the deeper economic reality are worrisome. Instead of addressing both,  Trump looks for an opportunity to bluff his way out again, be it on the back of compassion which is alien to his character.

One crisis might lead to another. Unexpectedly, the Mad Hatter ends up having too many balls in the air. The rallies and stadiums might run empty for fear of the virus and for the belated admission that this president was just a cheat.


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