Thursday, August 26, 2021

FUBAR - Fouled up beyond all recognition.

Leaving Afghanistan is the right decision. Unfortunately, too many collateral questions remain unsolved and the signs are ominous.

Once the Americans (and others) leave, the fate of too many who want to get out could easily end up in tragedy.

Meanwile the airport remains a target for ISIS, while the US looks unprepared or unwilling to leave the airport's perimeter.

The question remains if the US and Western Embassies were able to desactivate and destroy sensitive material.  If the precedent of the whereabouts of the military soft- and hardware that fell into the hands of the Talibans teaches a lesson, it is not a pretty one.

That the head of the CIA met with the Taliban in Kabul without obtaining any concession, is indicative of the unease in Washington and of the resolution of the new masters of Kabul.

Indications are clear that the Taliban will not roll back their core ideology. Nevertheless they will be obliged to enter into some form of sophisticated commerce with the world. Their spokesperson Mohammed Suhail Shaheen acts already as if he were running for a Pulitzer.

The EU/US short-lived romance is back in the Emergency Room.

The Trump-era Doha talks and the roles of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Ambassdor Khalilzad are shrouded in mystery and need clarification.  This lamentable event will have consequences, some foreseeable, some unknown yet.

America has suffered a breakdown. To be right regarding the decision made in principle doesn't suffice if the consequences are out of control. Actually Afganistan looks like a replay of so many European colonial misfires, when the illusion of some "westernized" veneer couldn't hide that most people didn't give a damn.

Imagine the mood in least the Uyghurs may benefit from a warming up between Beijing and Kabul.  Pakistan was essential in the evacuation. It will be interesting to find out what the baksheesh will be.

Voltaire remains as relevant as ever:  Quel livre immense on composerait de tous les faits qu'on a crus, et dont il fallait douter.

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