Thursday, August 18, 2022

THE JOINT COMPRENSIVE PLAN OF ACTION REBORN?

The Trump administration killed the former 2015 nuclear deal with Iran for the simple reason that it was President Obama's achievement. The same happened with Asia, Cuba and was attempted on health care.

It looks as if a new deal might be in the making. The same partners (permanent members of the Security Council + Germany and the EU) appear to be close to arriving at an agreement with Iran. Teheran demands guarantees for the survival of a deal, in case there is a change in the US administration. 

Iran is a most unpleasant partner. It can therefore be expected for any agreement to be unpopular. Israel will be sceptic. The Republicans will be on their "isolationist" best. The Democrats will be divided and President Biden will have again a hard sell.

This important matter has also to be weighed on a different scale. The accumulation of flash points everywhere risks getting out of control. Accidental but predictable after-shocks--inflation, shortages, social unrest, i.a.-- can further destabilize a world order in shambles. One might like it or not, but the new plurality of players in the world requires that the established stockholders meet and talk, other than in Skype. Too many conflicts and distortions everywhere require an urgent hands-on approach. If the Iran deal comes true it might encourage the great powers to rediscover some merit in "issue compartment" preferably to "issue  metastasis," 

Of course the proof will be in the nuclear pudding but l'app├ętit vient en mangeant.


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