Wednesday, June 28, 2023


After the Russian coup that wasn't, the comments coming from the clueless proliferate. Suddenly everybody saw it coming and political post-facto appropriation fills the airwaves and the usual CNN talk shows.

The few who have knowledge stay mute, some who had some prior info remain silent, and the usual specialists have a free run to spin. 

One can assume that the US, the UK, Australia and New Zeeland are in the know since they have an ad hoc agreement for sharing relevant info regarding security. 

It is wise to follow the situation with the uttermost caution, given that the paranoia in Putin's power structure must run amok. Russia is not a normal country and given the little one knows about the putative contenders for power, it is advisable to watch, rather than to delve into whatever too few might know too little about.

Putin is a personality which remains non-transparent. There are enough indications however that should encourage restraint rather than outburst. This nuclear maverick is unpredictable. He might be tempted to refurbish his credibility on the back of Ukraine, knowing very well that many NATO members (like Belgium), who do not comply with the contribution requirement of 2 % of their GDP, are international riff raff. The chessboard belongs only to the US, China and himself.

Washington stays stoic, wisely so (notwithstanding the usual Biden gaffe). 

Lukashenko found in this sordid imbroglio an outlet to make him larger and to climb higher on the ladder of Putin's esteem. He is no longer the Leporello.

Better stay on the side lines. Putin might auto-destruct. He might also rise from the ashes. What comes after him might be even worse, so it is to be recommended not to interfere. 

Ukraine is the only imperative piece in this game of chess. The West had better review its qualitative and quantitative involvement during the next NATO summit. All the rest is for the usual suspects to talk about, with Amanpour & Co.

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