LE PAPE ET LE ROI

Le pape a décidé d'entamer le processus de béatification de Baudouin 1, roi des Belges.

Cette décision, tombée du ciel (c'est le cas de le dire) a surpris le gouvernement, l'épiscopat  et les Belges.

Le Belge moyen est devenu indifférent par rapport à la religion, en premier lieu le catholicisme. Ce revirement se situe dans la foulée d'un nombre d'évènements . L'église a très mauvaise presse dans l'histoire de la colonisation du Congo. Les nombreux scandales qui sont venus à jour et le laxisme de l'autorité religieuse ont fortement ébranlé sa crédibilité. Les évènements au Moyen Orient ternissent en Europe à la fois les religions qui s'opposent sur place et la religion en général.

Personne ne conteste le charisme du roi Baudouin mais il n'était pas sans défauts. On peut s'interroger sur son attitude au sujet des évènements qui ont tristement marqué l'indépendance du Congo. Il a refusé de signer la loi votée par le Parlement, légalisant l'avortement conditionnel. On peut objecter qu'il a ainsi failli à son serment.

Ce roi reste estimé et aimé. Avec la reine Fabiola ils formaient un couple d'autant plus extraordinaire que les Cobourgs avant eux s'étaient surtout fait remarquer par leurs écarts.

Baudouin n'avait vraiment pas besoin d'un reliquaire alors qu'il reste dans les mémoires et les coeurs un homme souvent autoritaire mais toujours de classe.

THOMAS FRIEDMAN IN THE NYT ABOUT CHINA

Friedman's analysis regarding China is pertinent. People do not realize the strives China has made in half a century. From being Mao's laboratory it became the world's envy.

The amazing progress in all fields, mostly A.I., technology, weaponry and pertinence in strategic world affairs is spectacular. Otherwise the lift-off of such a large population in a more competitive middle-class society comes also with some risks. The Chinese family structure is obliged to move from the round table unit into the rectangular model, and this is easier said than done.

Today's world is not a pretty picture. China will also pay a price for its former embrace of countries that were already unreliable from the start and have become bankrupt today. Putin still does the same but it doesn't affect a combination of two known evils, while China has become the second superpower with the ambition to be the first. As Obama said before, Russia remains a regional power, with all the malign consequences it brings with it.

China is self-conscious and culturally arrogant. It always was so and President Xi knows how and when to activate Chinese historical identity. This is also a reason why Taiwan is such a difficult cypher to break. The Shanghai Communique lost one of its main creators in the person of Dr. Kissinger. Together with President Nixon he managed the coup du siècle, with the opening to China. Tragically, no successors were found for this golden, albeit uneven era of American diplomacy. Probably the Chinese will take into account Trump's shaky wanderings in international affairs because besides India and maybe Japan, the theater where partners meet runs empty. The EU became a poorhouse, the UK retains the pomp but has little pertinence and the Gulf States are too selfish to look beyond their narrow self-interest.

Chinese history is not always pleasant but it obeyed a set of rules and retained a discipline which makes for a predictable pattern of political and diplomatic behavior. It is not an aggressive power beyond what it considers to be its own (Taiwan, the Spratly's, border dispute with India). Overall it demands to be recognized as a major player. Nobody should underestimate the many susceptibilities which survived the emperors and dynasties that ruled by ritual and ceremonial distancing.

The new generation of Chinese entrepreneurs might look Western but their à la carte bonhomie shouldn't fool anyone. When the Chinese smile, the alarms should set off.

I for one will be happy to return. I'll read Friedman first.

THIS SINKING FEELING

I left America where Nero is waiting in the aisle. I arrived in Europe which is heading for the evil iceberg, oblivious.

Nobody can predict where Trump's ship of fools is heading. It is not hard to foresee a European meltdown wherein the normal powers get busted and wherein the "new normal" (Hungary, Italy, i.a.) starts to set the tone.

The EU is on life support. The former first tier countries, France and Germany, appear exhausted. Poland and the Baltics have their own regional legitimate priorities. Even the Netherlands appear suddenly insecure. If Belgium were ever get its act together it might be smart to return to the former Benelux  model which rivalled, often successfully, its European counterparts.

Brussels is the perfect place for hosting the European headquarters and NATO. It lives in its own chaos; it doesn't interfere in the latter and doesn't count in the former.

Nevertheless the overall geopolitical situation is dire. It is bad enough that the EU feels like a ship without a captain. America appears to become overloaded with mostly uninformed, clueless personae, whose lifespan solely depends on the mood of a narcissist. The happenings that come out of Mar-a-Lago have all the ingredients of some Peplum technicolor in the Sixties. Melania fits the bill.

All this could be almost trivial if the rest of the world were still on some normal trajectory. There are enough nutcases, human tragedies, evil players to make one homesick for the times of Kissinger. He was far from faultless but he was able to put roadblocks where need overturned caution. The current Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, will be missed. This man of modesty and class deserves gratitude and respect.

The final year of President Biden was a painful act to swallow. Fortunately his government and especially his close advisers in foreign affairs, defense, economy, finance, infrastructure, made for a sterling legacy. 

Miracles are a thing of the past. One must beware of a future wherein the weakness of one and the craziness of the other create the perfect storm.

LE PARDON DE BIDEN

Le président sortant a réalisé un beau score. Sans enthousiasmer les foules il pouvait se prévaloir d'un nombre considérable de succès et d'avances, sociale et économique. L'âge l'a rattrapé. Il est dommage qu'il n'a pas su maitriser une ultime étape qui le  laisse affaibli et surtout otage jugements contestables.

Voilà qu'il a pardonné son fils, en contradiction avec ses déclarations antérieures. On peut comprendre le père sans approuver pour autant le président. Ainsi il a terni sa réputation et embarassé les démocrates. Hunter Biden est une personnalité ambigue qui a manifestement mal géré des erreurs de jugement qu'il n'a d'ailleurs jamais contestées. En tout il a fait preuve d'un cynisme permanent.

Tout homme d'état a ses conseillers qui veillent à ce que les faiblesses et faux pas restent sous contrôle et n'apparaissent pas aux heures de grande écoute. Biden avait besoin d'être moins vu, moins subi, moins entendu. Ses sorties sont devenues pénibles et ses commentaires embarassants.

L'age peut exterminer la raison tempérée. D'aucuns ont maitrisé leur sortie...de Gaulle, Mandela, Gorbachev. Biden semble n'avoir retenu de l'âge que l'aspect naufrage. Il méritait mieux...

TOMORROW'S CURSE ?

There is a lot of talk with regard to Trump's recent electoral victory. It has been called lots of superlatives, while the balance of power has hardly changed. America remains mostly a house divided. What has happened is that the MAGA's will be in full control of all the branches of government until the midterms, two years from now. There still remain some Republican dinosaurs who might make the MAGA coup not a done deal.

Until the inauguration in January a lot can happen. Musk's new DOGE machine is ready for the onslaught. The various, often surreal nominations for the cabinet appear to be more about kissing the ring than about outlining policies.

How this freak show is being considered in Moscow or Beijing is a sobering consideration. That the same envoy will deal with Russia and Ukraine should scare any informed observer of international affairs. Suffice to go back to the "good days" of the Cold War and imagine that the Soviet Union and Finland were supervised under the same US umbrella. This would have been considered, rightly so, as a tacit approval of Finlandization...the Trump administration is already suspect of making deals with Russia, on the back of Ukraine or NATO. Everything has to be done to support Ukraine's independence and choice of destiny. One had better be beware of  giving Putin an inch because his aim is to break up a world order that collides with his interests. Unfortunately, while Trump is transactional and unreliable, the West is weak, devoid of leaders and lacking self- confidence and pride.

The foreseeable negative trend in America thrives partially because of European indecision. The military, social and economic disarray in the EU is accelerating because of a failing overall leadership. Germany is on hold, France becomes a Rubik cube with no end in sight. Here and there the populists raise their heads and fists. The undercurrent of anti-Semitism is becoming really alarming. The Commission in Brussels is unloved and too large for its own credibility. The EU Council cannot come to terms with Viktor Orbàn & Co. The world is packed with dead and ailing bodies, left after the slaughter inflicted by the unanimity curse. The Security Council of the UN is a corpse. The mortuary is making room for the EU.

The overall situation could be less dramatic if instead of indulgence in self-fulfilling prophecies, people were dialing         911 for a start.

The next months will be interesting. They might also be sobering. The dollar will rule, also in Moscow.  With friends as these, who needs (more) enemies?

AU REVOIR MADAME LABHIB

Exit Lahbib , entre Bernard Quintin comme Ministre des Affaires Etrangères en Belgique.

Le président du MR annonce, le Premier Ministre Alexander De Croo encaisse. Ainsi fonctionne la particracie en Belgique.

A priori le nouveau titulaire a, contrairement à Madame Labhib, un beau palmares. Ce n'est donc pas la personnalité qui dérange, c'est une nouvelle fois un système politique bancal qui indispose.

La Belgique est devenue l'otage de personnalités qui peuvent trop souvent opérer en dehors de tout contrôle parlementaire. 

Les ombres chinoises dictent la politique. Si les exécutants apparaissent souvent débiles c'est que leur profil n'est devenu  qu'un accessoire pour leurs mandataires .

D'aucuns se posent la question de deviner si Bart De Wever, prochain Premier Ministre, choisira le modèle Gaston Eyskens ou Jean Luc Dehaene, plutôt que d'être le dindon de la farce...de toute façon Thanksgiving c'était hier. Les parieurs préfèrent la premiere option, celà promet du plaisir.

THANKSGIVING 2024

Oscar Wilde suggested that there are only two tragedies in life. One being not getting what one wants and the other being getting it. This could as well be the perfect epitaph for today's America. Many are shell-, or better, Trump-shocked. The mood gets worse with each designation that comes out of Mar-a-Lago's gaudy theater of the absurd. The incoming administration covers an arc that goes from the pathetic (Marco Rubio) to the demonic (Sebastian Gorka). 

America is a democracy and Trump's victory is absolute. He gave the forgotten males an umbrella and promised to keep them safe from the godless, leftist, woke intellectuals who rule the coasts. This is surprising since the US economy is the envy of the world. It also proves Thomas Piketty right when he argues that capital return is stronger than the rate of economical growth. Obviously the voters didn't buy the assertion that the trading room is a weapon of financial destruction of the common man.

It is far too early to predict the outcome of this "coup". The awakened MAGA beast might be hard to get back into the cage of failed experiments. Unleashed it might create a havoc too few saw coming.

This Thanksgiving feels more absurd than ever. The parade in Manhattan will be at the same time festive in a Norman Rockwell way and somewhat frightening in a mad Disney way. Beverly Hills will look its usual empty, devoid of people and "normal "air to breathe. Some Americans feel solace in their current gloomy bestsellers, or better in Cabo where the brown people stay rather than emigrate.

The world will have to adjust to the uncomfortable seating arrangement during the long, four-year flight. The Asians will adjust, the Africans of sub-Sahara don't count but for some raw materials, the Middle East will skip the journey all together and the Europeans will suffer all Angsts in their cramped seats. The EU has already an economy on life-support and a defense out of a Plautus satire...ça promet.

John Updike said that America is a vast conspiracy to make one happy. Unfortunately the luxuries don't make up for the necessities.