Thursday, December 30, 2021

2022

Everything has been said about the agony of the year 2021. The expectations for 2022 leave little room for improvement. The worldwide disarticulation is further exasperated by a pandemic which escapes any form of remote control. 

The normal exasperation might lead to dangerous political derailments. The combination of economical selfishness, the de facto rule of cartels, the panic within governments and inflation are creating a perverse vortex of opposites. Yesterday's structures are no longer able to contain the rise of disaffection of the despondent.

On all sides there is no moral or prescient leadership. It is interesting to observe how, here and there, contemporary literature reflects this Spengler's "decline of the West" prophecy. This pessimistic tidal wave which originated in Europe has now taken hold of the American psyche as well. It is becoming impossible to read the mindset of people at a time when the smallest whisper becomes loaded like a pistol. The overall turmoil allows the darker forces to implement their most morbid fantasies.

If Covid comes up with yet another Omicron variant, 2022 might be the year of the great miscalculation. Soft-power will be overwhelmed. Hard-power might feel unbound.  The century of the "dupe" could lie ahead.

The Russian and American presidents inaugurated the year's end by talking again, no doubt mostly about Ukraine, while nobody doubts the outcome. Certain situations like Afghanistan, Ukraine, Hong Kong have lost their dramatic appeal because of their reduction to CNN material, where the anchor gets more credit than a president. The latter gets the communique, the former gets the drama. 

Next year might be worse...climate change will be incremental, Corona will mutate yet again, large business will strive while small enterprise may become a thing of the past, democracies will suffer.  China will hide its own structural shortcomings behind Xi's ornate fa├žade of cement. Closer to home, the little man will be the loser, unable to cope with the new economy, immigration and rising energy prices. 

The East excelled in playing hard to get. The West performed as long as it had customers. It looks as if the customers have left the room.

One thing is certain, our hospital beds might be "Made in China". 2022 will be the Year of the Water Tiger, beware!


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